Wednesday, February 6, 2008

Be Happy to Win a Little a Lot




When I was a young journalist getting paid to attend up to four race meetings a week it was always my goal to try to turn $50 into $5,000.
Obviously that did not happen to often because like the vast majority of punters I lost more times than I won my battle with the bookies.
It is only later in life that I have realised there is no need to try and win $5000 every time I have a punt.
My thinking about punting started to change a few years ago when I purchased an ebook called
Place Betting On Horses With My Mathematical Formula. This ebook taught me that by picking out a few horses that I thought could win and backing them for a place you can win handsomely for little investment.
Just recently I invested $25 in a multi bet with an online bookmaker in Australia and got back $210 when all five horses managed to finish in the first three.
Another interesting ebook which supports my favoured betting policy these days is called
How To "Place Bet" On Favourites For A Living. This excellent ebook outlines seven rules you can use to find the best favourites to back out of the 33% of all favourites that win races.
In October 2006 I launched my own website http://www.bet4place.com/ which provides free place betting selections almost every day of the week.
For bet4place I scan all the main race meetings throughout Australia looking for superior horses runnings against inferior opposition.
I then recommend you back the selected horses mainly for the place.
Alternatively, some bet4place followers like to include a win component in their wager. For example 20% of their bet for the win and 80% for the place.
In Australia there is a variety of online bookmakers that provide excellent websites to bet through.
I currently utilise IASbet, Sportsbet and SportingBet.
Sportsbet is particularly attractive for place betting because they tend to offer the best odds for place dividends. All three bookies offer attractive sign up bonuses when you establish an account so its worth opening up an account with each of them.
Recently I launched another horse racing selection website - http://www.bet4value.com/.
Bet4value is designed to assist recreational punters who like to have the occasional bet and prefer to back runners that are not the favourites.
Another horse racing website I launched recently is http://www.thetrainerhub.com/. This site provides a directory of Australian racehorse trainers who have their own websites.

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3563 Comments:

Blogger doogie said...

Place betting has never been kind to me. However, years ago I remember reading an article in PPM about splitting up 4 place bets into 6 doubles, 4 trebles and one 4 place all up. That way if you got 2 out of the 4 winners you got a return, 3 out of 4 you can still get a profit and 4 out of 4 - lookout payout!! I think this approach with David's selections might be worth some consideration

Sunday, February 10, 2008  
Anonymous Nigel said...

I am very happy with David's selection process but adjust my stakes on his selections according to some stats I maintain.
April 3rd's result:
Free hour 5 1/2 pts - 2 pts gain
Matilda princess (Value) 3 1/3 pts - Lost
Vulcan (Best) 12 1/2 pts - Lost
Carrythebrave 3 1/2 pts - 2 pts gain
West coast chopper 3 1/3 pts - 4 1/2 pts gain
brinkley light 2 3/4 pts - Lost

The above, plus the same included in 2 sets of all-up Place Accums (4 runners and 3 runners respectively) as Place Trebles and Place Doubles, caused an 11 1/3 pts net loss.
Today was unusual in that both the Best and Value selections lost. But there was a good return on West Coast Chopper which off-set this to an extent.
In recent times it seems to me there are more outright winners (as opposed to just placed) amongst the selections than I recall from previous periods.
However, the Best bets have failed a touch more often this year than I recall from past periods.
My Base Stake (the one which kicks off the stats adjustment of my actual bets) reached 24 pts on Jan 30 and has hovered there since. (The Value site selections Base Stake is currently 13 pts having started at 10 pts wef 5th Feb) The adjusted stake levels have been working out quite modest lately.

Friday, April 04, 2008  
Anonymous Nigel said...

David's April 4 selections:
The aggregated stakes of my bets, unusually, ended up higher on the bet than the bet4place ones.
b4p
BARIG 2 PTS
UNCLE STUEY 2 PTS
BABINDA HALF 4 PTS
b4v
GOLD OMEGA 1/3 pt
SOVEREIGN ARCH 7 pts
GLOBAL START 3 pts
REAL AURA 1 pt

Accum. totals: 0.88 & 0.73 respectively
I have also done one on the whole collection (Place Doubles/Place Trebles and a 7-Fold Place accum.) totalling 2.85 pts.
Good luck.

Friday, April 04, 2008  
Anonymous Nigel said...

Apr 4 results
The outright winners ratio improved yet again with 2 of the 3 A-List runners doing the full business. This made a 2 pts profit there.
The main bet (in the B-List today) of ran in 2nd and provided a 5 pts gain, helping the B-List to achieve a 1 pt profit overall.
The multiples failed to move into gains but the total damage was just 1 pt.
Overall profit was 2 1/2 pts.
Uncle Stuey was forecast @ 13/1 in the Racing & Sports card which depressed the size of my bet (2 pts) so has to be regarded as a tribute to David's selection process on its own on the face of it.
Roll on better days. Always on their way on David's site. I am a big fan!!
Nigel

Saturday, April 05, 2008  
Anonymous Nigel said...

Apr 4 bets
Another day of small stakes
Bromide (Valu) 4.82 pts
Grand Traverse 1.47 pts
Maduro 2.70 pts
B List
Something Anything 0.71 pts
Danedina 1.01 pts
Covet Gold 0.13 pts (Forecast 25/1)
Wriggle 1.10 pts
I appreciate that good tips transcend the value of statistics, but I see no virtue, long term, in betting the same amount on runners in different races where the records of results are poor on one but poor on another. To me it makes sense to put most on when my stats say the record is good.
Off the cuff, the worst stat today is re Something Anything - 1 win or place every 3 similar.
Covet Gold, however, is favoured by my stats to a degree: nearly 73 wins or place from 116 selections. But of course few of the latter would have been forecast @ odds of 25/1!
Good luck

Saturday, April 05, 2008  
Anonymous Nigel said...

Apr 5 results
Bromide (Valu) 4.82 pts - LOST
Grand Traverse 1.47 pts - 2ND - Gain of almost 3 pts
Maduro 2.70 pts - WON - Gain of almost 2 1/2 pts
Broke even [+0.40 pts]
B List
Something Anything 0.71 pts - 3RD
Danedina 1.01 pts - LOST
Covet Gold 0.13 pts (Forecast 25/1) - LOST
Wriggle 1.10 pts - LOST
Net loss of almost 2 pts
The multiples made a gain of about 1 pt overall.
To me it makes sense to put most on when my stats say the record is good, less when my stats indicate a less good record. In general on David's selections I would say that this works to my advantage when the results are mixed, but on a very good day I do less well than others would do @ orthodox level stakes.
My method is a version of level stakes betting with the difference that my list of standard stakes is exceedingly long.
The worst stat today was re Something Anything - 1 win/place per 3 selections in its stat category. It ran in 3rd - but the Evens fav ran out of steam and was unplaced. Had that not happened ...
Covet Gold, however, was favoured by my stats to a degree: 73 wins/placed from 116 selections in its stats category. Ran quite well but didn't make the frame: low computation of the adjusted stake vindicated! (This time.)
I hope you did OK.

Saturday, April 05, 2008  
Anonymous Nigel said...

Apr 6 bets
If a total of 6 runners in a race are forecast at under 14/1, this always depresses the size of my adjusted stake - because my ratio on (actual) wins/losses in that category on UK racing is 23/43. This applied to the selections I've asterisked below.
I would not ordinarily do Win bets on races that fall into this category, by the way; I like the ratio to be better than this when I do those.
My stats adjusted stakes worked out as follows:
A-List
HADAAF 3.3 pts
SILKEN APPEAL (Best) 16.96 pts
*DEPUTY LIL 1.57 pts
BLACK ARTOIS (Value) CAPPED @ 28 pts (from 41.85 pts but based today on the B-List Base Stake of 14 pts). (Note: I sometimes add a Top Up to bring the stake up to the Uncapped level but as this is not David's "best bet" selection I'll pass on that, here.)
(Maybe) Place multiples of Ds, Ts & 4-Fold totalling 3.98 pts + Xtras, if any i.e., only after adverse results occur
B-List
*MORNING TIME (F/c 9/1) 0.98 pts
*VECCHIA ROMA 1.29 pts
*KING'S SPRINTER 1.23 pts
SENSATIONAL SWING (F/c 8/1) 0.80 pts
(Maybe) Place multiples as above but at minimum levels + Xtras if any
Plus (maybe) 7-selection multiples as above at minimum level + Xtras (at least 1 - after the 1st race has run)

Possibly the big gap between the higher and lower adjusted stakes will deter me from the all-up multiples on 7 selections and the B-List ones. Arguably today, instead, I should just do a Double (sequentially; i.e., 2 single bets, the second incorporating any gain from the 1st) on the Best and Value selections from the A-List.
Good luck!

Sunday, April 06, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

Apr 6 bets
It was nice to have a couple of slightly meatier bets to worry about today!
My stats adjusted stakes resulted as follows:
A-List
HADAAF 3.3 pts - Won +1.65 pts
SILKEN APPEAL (Best) 16.96 pts - 3rd +15.26 pts
*DEPUTY LIL 1.57 pts - N/R
BLACK ARTOIS (Value) CAPPED @ half the intended 28 pts (from 41.85 pts but based today on the B-List Base Stake of 14 pts). I chickened

out. (Note: I did not add a Top Up to bring the stake up to the Uncapped level as this was not David's "best bet" selection.) - 3rd +8.40 pts
Did 3 Selections Place multiple of Ds, &T totalling 3.81 pts as the only Xtra, technically (there was no 4-Fold main bet). +7.96 pts
After that I settled for the Sequential Double I was majoring on re the Best and Value runners. +10.71 pts
B-List
*MORNING TIME (F/c 9/1) 0.98 pts - 3rd + 1.76 pts
*VECCHIA ROMA 1.29 pts
*KING'S SPRINTER 1.23 pts - good run but 4th
SENSATIONAL SWING (F/c 8/1) 0.80 pts - 3rd +0.96 pts
Note that 2 of the '6 runners forecast under 14/1 (for Aussie racing under 13/1)' dodgy category in my stats actually succeeded, a 3rd went close,

but none actually won their race,
Did tiny Place multiples at minimum levels + Xtras but only after the 1st race. -0.39 pts
Did not do an All Up multiple and just kicked in with a 3-selection multiple on the combined lists at minimum level + a 2nd Xtra, technically. +0.04

pts

The big gap between the higher and lower adjusted stakes did steer me onto doing a main Double (sequentially - i.e., 2 single bets, the second

incorporating any gain from the 1st) on the Best and Value selections from the A-List - but I chickened out of the 2nd leg, settling for not risking

the 1st leg's gain. (One of the advantages of the sequential approach is that you can opt to do this if you wish.) I was quite happy with that.
I must say, though, I had been worried about Silken Appeal in that it was not too fancied in the market. With a better cash-flow I would have gone

through with the original plan. But I went with my full adjusted stake, at least, rejecting the chance to economise on a reduced stake. I was fearing

the worst during the race because it was last for a long time and not once mentioned as a contender at the death. I had even thought several

times that, for once, David might have juxtaposed his feature selections i.e., that Silken Appeal had been his intended Value bet, really, not Black

Artois! I can't be blamed for this doubt, I think!
It is a feature of many of David's selections, incidentally, to show good early pace and then to race prominently. Most comforting when they do

these. But Silken Appeal, au contraire, is a 'closer,' apparently. I had given it up in my mind - and then came the news that it was in a photo for

3rd.
Altogether an absorbing session, today. David has my thanks for it!!!
Hope you did all right!

Sunday, April 06, 2008  
Anonymous totopolykid said...

Apr 7 bets
My overall impression of today's selections - based on tipster support and my stats - makes me modestly hopeful.
My stats adjusted stakes are as follows:
A-List
GOLDIERE 11.53 pts -
*MAAJAY PRINCE (Valu) 3.35 pts -
SILVER DANE (Best) 10.87 pts -
ERIN'S PRINCESS 29.33 pts -
Place multiple of Ds, Ts & 4-Fold totalling 3.44 pts + Xtras if any
B-List
CONCERT GIRL (F/c @ 11/4) Capped @ 14 pts (from 45.39 pts)-
STYLISH MIST 0.59 pts -
*BLACK SENSATION 0.92 pts -
MILLISIN 0.82 pts -
Place multiples as above totalling 0.99 pts -
All Up multiples on 7 selections otherwise as above at minimum stakes which, in my case, total 2.85 pts (+ 0.05 pts for a 2nd 7-Fold Place Accum. as my bookie does not accept 8 runner multiples.)
*Note that 2 are of the '6 runners forecast under 14/1 (for Aussie racing under 13/1)' dodgy category in my stats.
Black Sensation has the worst of my stats in this collection. Moreover it is now in a 6-runner race - which, of itself, does not perturb me. (In fact, I double stakes at 5 & 6 runners.)
An oddity is Concert Girl in that although in the B-List it has attracted a Capped stake. It will be interesting to see what happens, there.
Good luck!

Monday, April 07, 2008  
Anonymous thetotopolykid said...

Apr 7 bets
My overall impression "modestly hopeful" was born out in part but I ended up down on the day.
My results were:
A-List
GOLDIERE 11.53 pts - WON +2.31 pts
*MAAJAY PRINCE (Valu) 3.35 pts - 3RD +1.34 pts
SILVER DANE (Best) 10.87 pts - WON +4.35 pts
ERIN'S PRINCESS 29.33 pts - WON +2.93 pts
Place multiple of Ds, Ts & 4-Fold totalling 3.44 pts + no Xtras = GAIN +2.75
B-List
CONCERT GIRL (F/c @ 11/4) Capped @ 14 pts (from 45.39 pts) - Started fav, finished last. A shocker. Something amiss? It is as well it was in the B-List.
STYLISH MIST 0.59 pts -
*BLACK SENSATION 0.92 pts -
MILLISIN 0.82 pts -
Place multiple as above totalling 0.99 pts + Xtras = LOSS of -1.90 pts
'All Up' multiple on 7 selections, otherwise as above, at minimum stakes which, in my case, total 2.85 pts (+ 0.05 pts for a 2nd 7-Fold Place Accum. as my bookie does not accept 8 runner multiples) + Xtras = NET LOSS of -4.22 pts
*Note that 2 are of the '6 runners forecast under 14/1 (for Aussie racing under 13/1)' dodgy category in my stats. Neither actually won.
Black Sensation had the worst of my stats in this collection. Actually the race was run in a very good time. However the horse came 4th of 6, having started as favourite I believe.
The good record on actual race winners continued, I note. This looks to be a good time for those who like to supplement with win bets, certainly re the A-List.
Concert Girl, and the lack of a gainer in the B-List cost me a profit today I'm afraid.
Tomorrow my Base Stakes go up to 25pts on the A-List and back to 13 pts on the B.
I hope you had a good day!

Monday, April 07, 2008  
Anonymous The Totopoly Kid said...

Apr 8 bets
My stats are broadly 50/50 but with a couple of exceptions that are rather better. My adjusted stakes are:
A-List
DECIBELLA Capped @ 25 pts (from 50.09) Ordinarily I would not cap @ an adjusted stake of twice today's Base Stake of 25 but I am worried by the forecast odds of 7/2 and the fact this is not David's Best Bet selection (my cash-flow isn't great, too) -
PHIL'S PRIDE (Valu) (Forecast 9/1) 4.11 pts -
DODGE LARRY (Best) 25.13 pts -
CUP BEARER I have little to go on re this category race but what I have computed @ 8.73 pts -
Place multiple of Ds, Ts & 4-Fold totalling 5.50 pts + Xtras if any
B-List
INNOCENT VACATION 3.10 pts -
TEN CI CI (very 50/50 stats, but a big field) 0.62 pts -
UNDERFOOT (Forecast 8/1) 0.84 pts -
*SILENT TIDE (Forecast 20/1) 0.29 pts -
Place multiple as above totalling the minimum 0.55 pts + Xtras if any
'All Up' multiple on 7 selections, otherwise as above, at minimum stakes which, in my case, total 2.85 pts (+ 0.05 pts for a 2nd 7-Fold Place Accum.) + Xtras
*Note that 1 is of the '6 runners forecast under 13/1 (for UK racing under 14/1)' dodgy category in my stats. My stat on David's record in this sub-category is good, however: 109Gains/56Losses (but if indeed @ 20/1 today, who knows???)
No clear worst stat in this collection. My strictly Win stats on DECIBELLA are strictly 50/50. (I have much better actual Win/Lost ratios than this in my records.)
Today my Base Stakes increased to 25 pts on the A-List and decreased to 13 pts on the B.
Good luck!

Tuesday, April 08, 2008  
Anonymous The Totopoly Kid said...

PS Re Apr 8:
*DECIBELLA Corrected stats-adjusted stake: 27.33 pts -
I saw belatedly that this is a (2nd) race having 6 runners forecast @ under 14/1, after all, which, according to my method, computes to a different indicated stake from the one I posted earlier (a level I don't cap, normally). Apologies for my error.
Good luck!

Tuesday, April 08, 2008  
Anonymous The Totopoly Kid said...

Apr 8 bets
My overview assessment, "broadly 50/50," on today's selections proved accurate: half earned us gains, half didn't.
My top stake was on the only outright winner, I note;
and after adjustment to achieve a like-for-like comparison, with one exception, it is the lower computed staked runners today that lost. (Happens often, I find, which makes me feel it can't just be coincidental.) Ability to make these observations pleases and encourages me.
A-List
*DECIBELLA (Corrected to ...) 27.33 pts (cap not needed) - WON +27.33. The level of return pleasantly surprised me.
PHIL'S PRIDE (Valu) (Forecast 9/1) 4.11 pts - 2ND +10.28 (Indeed today's value bet, proportionally. Spot on, David!)
DODGE LARRY (Best) 25.13 pts - 2ND +12.57
CUP BEARER 8.73 pts - 2ND +3.49
Place multiple of Ds, Ts & 4-Fold totalling 5.50 pts + No Xtras = GAIN +26.68
I was tempted to add a Sequential Double on Decibella/Dodge Larry but chickened out because a failure, if it happened, of Decibella's would have scuppered the day's gain to that point pretty much. No regrets, therefore.
I realised today that the Sequential Double can be picked up on first at the 2nd Leg stage, as an after-thought (having failed to place the 1st Leg bet), if you extrapolate what your stake would have been had you done the 1st Leg bet. Then, by factoring in what your gain would have been on the (imaginary) 1st leg, you have the choice of risking that notional gain only on Leg 2, or of adding it to what the stake on Leg 1 would have been and risking that as a notional Leg 2. Of course, this is merely a way of, so to say, salvaging a bet you thought of making and didn't (i.e., what would have been Leg 1). Your Leg 2 would be but just another Single, really, in practice. However, the idea may have merit due to the psychology involved in coming to a particular bet to place. (More and more I find how useful, and possibly necessary, it is to get the psychology right in how I do my gambling.)
B-List
INNOCENT VACATION 3.10 pts - Started favourite I believe
TEN CI CI (very 50/50 stats but a big field) 0.62 pts - Late market support happened I think
UNDERFOOT (Forecast 8/1) 0.84 pts -*SILENT TIDE (Forecast 20/1) 0.29 pts -
Place multiple as above totalling the minimum 0.55 pts + Xtras = LOST -0.85 pts. Though having failed, mostly the B-List ran well.
'All Up' multiple on 7 selections, otherwise as above, at minimum stakes which, using my bookie, always totals 2.85 pts (+ the same for a 2nd 7-Fold Multiple so all 8 runners got covered.) + Xtras = GAIN +1.07 pts
*There were 2 x "6 runners forecast Under 14/1 (for UK racing, really, but I apply it as one of my calculations to arrive at my stats adjusted stakes) dodgy bet category runners." David's record in these particular two sub-categories (changed to Under 13/1 for Aussie races) on selections of his I have followed to date are good, however: SILENT TIDE 109Gains/56Losses; DECIBELLA 26Gains/9Losses. We owe him a drink today (not for the first time - or the last, I'm sure).
I hope (and assume) you had a good day!

Tuesday, April 08, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

Apr 9 bets
Small adjusted stakes, including on a sprinkling of large fields, rather suggest a difficult day for us, one that could easily disappoint. (So far it is shaping that way. At the time of writing the bigger staked runners have all lost, alas.)
A-List
CLASS APART c4 pts - LOST
MEDIUM 'N RARE (Forecast 10/1) 11 pts - 4TH, sadly
*JOHNNY AUCASH (Valu) (Forecast 10/1) 2 pts - ?
AMY JAYEPOWER (Best) 4.4 pts - WON +1.76 - a 7-runner race selection unusually, On "7" I do not double my stakes as I would on fields of 12 or less
Place multiple of Ds, Ts & 4-Fold totalling 1.36 pts + Xtras if any = ?
B-List
CLOUDYGAZE 3.66 pts - ?
DISINTEGRATE 1 pts - LOST
AMORE 5.36 pts - LOST
*SUBCONSCIOUS (Forecast 25/1) 0.16 pts - ?
Place multiple as above totalling the minimum 0.62 pts + Xtras if any = ?
Multiple on 7 selections, otherwise as above, at minimum stakes which, using my bookie, always totals 2.85 pts + Xtras = ?
*There are 2 x '6 runners forecast Under 14/1 which I would not back to Win, normally.
My Base Stakes, respectively, remain at 25 pts for the A-List and shrinks back to 13 pts for the B.
Good luck!

Wednesday, April 09, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

Apr 9 bets
Small stats adjusted stakes, including on a sprinkling of large fields, to me had suggested a difficult day was in prospect, and so it proved: a rare whitewash, in fact - very rare.
A-List
CLASS APART c4 pts -
MEDIUM 'N RARE (Forecast 10/1) 11 pts -
*JOHNNY AUCASH (Valu) (Forecast 10/1) 2 pts -
AMY JAYEPOWER (Best) 4.4 pts - WON +1.76 - a 7-runner race selection (unusually)
Place multiple of Ds, Ts & 4-Fold totalling 1.36 pts + Xtras = LOSS -2
B-List
CLOUDYGAZE 3.66 pts -
DISINTEGRATE 1 pts -
AMORE 5.36 pts -
*SUBCONSCIOUS (Forecast 25/1) 0.16 pts -
Place multiple as above totalling the minimum 0.62 pts + Xtras = LOSS -1
Multiple on 7 selections, otherwise as above, at minimum stakes which, at my bookie, totals 2.85 pts + Xtras (my last of which was both to Win and to Place) = LOSS -5
*There were 2 x '6 runners forecast Under 14/1.' I don't bet to Win on these usually, but today I chanced a tiny Win bet element on the final race.
My Base Stakes, respectively, recede, now, to 25 pts for the A-List; and remain @ 13 pts for the B.
Good luck!

Wednesday, April 09, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

Apr 10 bets
Small stats-adjusted stakes, again (with one exception), including on large fields, suggest to me another difficult day is in prospect.
A-List
THE BUTLER 0.39 pts -
*CORRECTLY (Best) 10 pts -
ONION (Valu) 1 pts -
3-Leg Place multiple of Ds, Ts - totalling 1.25 pts + Xtras if any = ?
B-List
GEYSER PARK 0.08 pts -
IDENTIFY 0.27 pts -
UPILIO (Forecast 16/1) 0.17 pts -
SHANGHAI SALLY (Forecast 8/1) 2.55 pts -
4-Leg Place multiple (Ds,Ts & 4-Fold) - totalling the minimum 0.55 pts + Xtras if any = ?
No Multiple on 7 selections today.
*There is 1 x '6 runners forecast Under 14/1.' I don't bet to Win on these, usually.
My Base Stakes, respectively, remain @ 25 pts for the A-List; and have dropped back to 13 pts for the B.
Good luck!

Thursday, April 10, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

Apr 10 Results
My stats-adjusted stakes etc., had suggested another difficult day was in prospect and, I'm afraid, so it proved.
A-List
THE BUTLER 0.39 pts - See **below
*CORRECTLY (Best) 10 pts -
ONION (Valu) 1 pts -
3-Leg Place multiple of Ds, Ts - totalling 1.25 pts + the Xtras =LOSS -2.39
B-List
GEYSER PARK 0.08 pts - WON +0.03 - see ***below
IDENTIFY 0.27 pts -
UPILIO (Forecast 16/1) 0.17 pts -
SHANGHAI SALLY (Forecast 8/1) 2.55 pts -
4-Leg Place multiple (Ds,Ts & 4-Fold) - the minimum, totalling 0.55 pts + the Xtras = NET LOSS -0.57
Combined Multiple, on just the last 3 possible Legs, chanced totalling 1.42 pts + the Xtras = NET LOSS -1.55
*There is 1 x '6 runners forecast Under 14/1.' (CORRECTLY) I don't bet to Win on these, usually.
**I forgot to say in my preview that my worst stats, here, were on THE BUTLER (by some distance), and it did not sound as though it ran so as to belie that adverse indicator. (David's record on it, for example, was 8Gainers13, now 14,Losers, probably the worst of all his in my records).
***GEYSER PEAK looked the worst of the bunch in my stats, to judge from the tiny stats-adjusted stake, but there is a boring technical reason why the adjustment is unfair potentially. Because of this, and in view of market support for it, I freely chanced a tiny Win bet (to add to Xtras on it that I added to the relevant Multiples).
My Base Stakes drops, now, to 24 pts for the A-List, but remains @ 13 for the B.
I hope you did not come out of today too badly!

Thursday, April 10, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

Apr 11 Preview
My stats-adjusted stakes suggest a day of mixed results possibly. Except for FOUR AMIGOS, they have computed small/tiny. But, of course, good tips transcend the virtues of stats, in general, so who knows, it might turn into a very good day. However, in general, 'the lower the computed stake, the less the chance of a place,' is the rule of thumb to apply at the planning stage, I find. That said, I am unsure about today. There is an argument for backing FOUR AMIGOS and leaving the rest alone. But my confidence in David's selections is such that, usually, I can't resist just going with them all as "good tips." Almost certainly, go with them is what I will do.
A-List
VINTAGE ROCK (Valu) 0.85 pts - My UK stats are on very few races, showing, at worst, a 25% strike rate for the actual win.
HE'S IN DEMAND 0.95 pts - My stat on David's results, here, is poor - 4Gains9Losses. My UK stats are a bit better than this but not much.
*OUR GENERAL 3.50 pts - My stats are not great and the higher stake is just upwardly influenced by the Forecast Odds of 13/8
FOUR AMIGOS (Best) - CAPPED @ 48 pts (from 60.67). The stat on David's record, here, is excellent: 60Gains20Losses, hence the capped level; but my UK stats suggest only 50/50 and worse. I may apply half the indicated stake (i.e., bet c30 pts).
(Maybe) 4-Leg Place multiple of Ds, Ts, 4-Fold - totalling 4.12 pts + the Xtras = ?
B-List
EL VELOZ (Forecast 12/1) 0.36 pts - My stat in David's record, here, is 50/50, likewise my UK record, but both on few races
*FOLLOW THE COMMAND 0.47 pts - My stat on David's record here is good: 109Gains57Losses; my UK record is worse than 50/50, plus it is in the '6 runners forecast @ under 14/1' category that has a poor showing for actual wins
*WALJAI 1.17 pts - Good stat on Devid's record: 87Gains40Losses. My UK record is worse than 50/50, plus it is in the '6 runners forecast @ under 14/1' category
WESTERN BEAU (Forecast 50/1) 0.06 pts - Stats not encouraging
(Maybe) 4-Leg Place multiple (Ds,Ts & 4-Fold) - my indicated max is 0.13 pts but the minimum poss at my bookie has to total 0.55 pts + the Xtras = ?
(Maybe not?) Combined 7-Leg Multiple (2x7 Leg incl. Ds,Ts & 7-Fold) totalling 1.21 pts + the Xtras = ?
*There are 3 x '6 runners forecast Under 13/1 (Aust) or 14/1 (re UK stats)' races on which I don't bet to Win, usually.
Worst stats: HE'S IN DEMAND, Best: FOUR AMIGOS.
My Base Stakes today are: 24 pts A-List, 13 pts B-List.
Good luck!

Friday, April 11, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

Apr 11 Results
I predicted mixed results today. In fact the mix was in favour of gaining races, thankfully. David's "good tips," indeed, "transcended" my statistics. QED!
Stats-adjustment of stakes essentially protects you from the worst effects of bad days; its prime function I think. But there is always the possibility that when an isolated heavy bet goes down, a good day may be turned into a bad one at a stroke. This latter was the risk posed by FOUR AMIGOS - but happily it ran in 2nd. Other than this bet, my "small" ones lost and the "tiny" ones gained! Hierarchically, my stats were not born out this time!
An oft recurring reaction to winning days is that one wishes one had invested more for a better return! But the truth is, a good day is always just that - so it is best to be invariably pleased with whatever profit has been made.
One of my stats is an especial oddity - re selections from races having 8 runners that were forecast @ under 14/1. This stat of mine shows, surprisingly, a majority of wins over losses (small sample, however: 6W5L). Today, because of it, HE'S IN DEMAND(Won), WESTERN BEAU(Won) & EL VELOZ(2nd) each with a slightly higher adjusted-stake than might have been (strictly) realistic. This sort of pattern of outcome delights me, I must admit, as it makes me feel part-vindicated in a minor feature of my staking methodology!
A-List
VINTAGE ROCK (Valu) 0.85 pts - 2ND +0.60
HE'S IN DEMAND 0.95 pts - WON +0.29
*OUR GENERAL 3.50 pts - "My stats are not great and the higher stake is upwardly influenced by the Forecast Odds of 13/8."
FOUR AMIGOS (Best) - REDUCED CAP @ 30 pts (from 60.67) - 2ND +3.00 Disappointed with the return. Had looked like it might work out bigger.
4-Leg Place multiple of Ds, Ts - totalling 4.12 pts + the Xtras = EVEN [-0.04]
B-List
EL VELOZ (Forecast 12/1) 0.36 pts - 2ND +1.01
*FOLLOW THE COMMAND 0.47 pts - WON +0.56
*WALJAI 1.17 pts - "Good stat on Devid's record: 87Gains40Losses. My UK record is worse than 50/50, plus it is in the '6 runners forecast @ under 14/1' category that has a poor showing for actual wins."
WESTERN BEAU (Forecast 50/1) 0.06 pts - WON +0.10 Feather in David's cap, this one, surely!
4-Leg Place multiple (Ds,Ts & 4-Fold) - 0.55 pts + the Xtras = +2.55
Combined (2 x 7-Leg) Multiples (but in error the intended 2nd one not done, did a 6-Leg one instead) incl. Ds,Ts & 7-Fold totalling 1.21 pts (sic: 2.85

pts) + the Xtras = +8.68
*There were 3 x '6 runners forecast Under 13/1 or 14/1 races' on which I don't bet to Win, usually: 2 lost, 1 won.
Worst stats HE'S IN DEMAND (Oops!), Best: FOUR AMIGOS.
My Base Stakes tomorrow: up 1 to 25 pts A-List; unchanged @ 13 pts B-List.
I hope you had a good day!

Friday, April 11, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

Apr 12 Preview
Encouraging stats - but with a couple of exceptions which make me cautious. Indicated stats-adjusted stakes have computed quite (worryingly) high.
One of my stats is a oddity: the one re. selections from races having 8 runners that were forecast @ under 14/1. Today, only SECTAGONAL's race falls into this category.
A-List
*SURFSIDE CHRISTMAS (Valu) CAPPED (reduced) @ 13 pts (from 28.41) - I've decided to use the B-List Base Stake, here, as the Capped stake level.
*MR BARITONE (Best) 21.01 pts -
SECTAGONAL 3.18 pts - My UK Win/Loss ratio on this is 8W/14L, but another relevant stat is one of the "oddities" mentioned above: 6W/5L.
ZARITA: CAPPED @ 25 pts (from 121.04): My stats, however, are excellent across the board on this - but as it is neither David's Value tip nor his Best one, I think it as well to be cautious.
4-Leg Place multiple (Ds, Ts, 4-Fold) totalling a de-capped 10.85 pts + the Xtras = ?
B-List
GAMBLE ME (Forecast 9/1) 0.30 pts - Not very encouaging stats.
GERMAN CHOCOLATE 0.79 pts - Stats provide quite good vibes.
LA ROCKET 0.27 pts - Stats 50/50, but based on exceedingly few races.
VARDON FLYER 0.46 pts - 50/50 stats, based on a reasonable sample of races.
4-Leg Place multiple (Ds,Ts & 4-Fold) - totalling my bookie's minimum of 0.55 pts + the Xtras =
Combined 2 x 7-Leg Multiples (Ds,Ts & 7-Fold), the 1st totalling my bookie's minimum of 2.85 pts + the Xtras =
*There 2 x '6 runners forecast Under 13/1 or 14/1' races on which I don't bet to Win, usually.
Worst stats: LA ROCKET, Best: ZARITA.
My Base Stakes today: up 1 to 25 pts A-List, unchanged @13 pts B-List.
Good luck!

Saturday, April 12, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

Apr 12 outcomes
Encouraging stats - but with a couple of exceptions which made me cautious. Indicated stats-adjusted stakes had computed quite (worryingly) high.
One of my stats is a oddity: the one re. selections from races having '8 runners that were forecast @ under 14/1.' SECTAGONAL/WON fell into this category.
A-List
*SURFSIDE CHRISTMAS (Valu) CAPPED (reduced) @ 13 pts (from 28.41) - Decided to use the B-List Base Stake, here, as the Capped stake.
*MR BARITONE (Best) 21.01 pts - 2ND +10.51
SECTAGONAL 3.18 pts - My UK Win/Loss ratio on this is 8W14L, but another relevant stat is one of the "oddities" mentioned above: 6W/5L - 2ND +1.91
ZARITA: CAPPED @ 25 pts (from 121.04): My stats, however, are excellent across the board on this - but as it was neither David's Value tip nor his Best one, I thought it as well to be cautious, but, due to a slip, I backed it for less than intended (8.43 pts) - WON +4.22
4-Leg Place multiple (Ds, Ts, 4-Fold) totalling a de-capped 10.85 pts + the Xtras = NET GAIN +8.69
B-List
GAMBLE ME (Forecast 9/1) 0.30 pts - Not very encouraging stats.
GERMAN CHOCOLATE 0.79 pts - Stats provided quite good vibes.
LA ROCKET 0.27 pts - Stats 50/50, but based on exceedingly few races - 2ND +0.27
VARDON FLYER 0.46 pts - 50/50 stats, based on a reasonable sample of races.
4-Leg Place multiple (Ds,Ts & 4-Fold) - totalling my bookie's minimum of 0.55 pts + the Xtras = LOSS -1.10
Combined 2 x 7-Leg Multiples (Ds,Ts & 7-Fold), the 1st totalling my bookie's minimum of 2.85 pts + the Xtras = NET LOSS -3.44
*There were 2 x '6 runners forecast Under 13/1 or 14/1' races on which I don't bet to Win, usually: Neither actually won but Mr Baritone was Placed.
Worst stats LA ROCKET/2nd, Best: ZARITA/Won.
My Base Stakes tomorrow: unchanged @ 25 pts A-List, 13 pts B-List.
Hope you did all right!

Sunday, April 13, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

Apr 12 Preview
With one exception, my stats-adjustments arrived at small stake levels. This, and the big fields (6 with more than 12 runners), lower my expectations on the day (though never my hopes, naturally).
A-List
SELECT DRAW (Best) 20.33 pts - It's always concerning when one runner in the collection is staked significally higher than the others. Its failure to Place can scupper the entire day single-handedly. My basic stats are not that strong on it, frankly, the computed stake having been upwardly influenced by the short forecast odds (6/4, which can be way out) & by David's very good record on Best selections (203Gains/92Losses). I have no 'best practice' strategy to cover this situation. I wonder if it isn't best to either back it, and no others, singly To Place, then rely on the usual multiples, or not to back it at all but do the others singly, again fully relying on the multiples. On the former of these options, I would have done better the other day than I did in a very similar situation. (FOUR AMIGOS)
BABIJCZUK (Valu) (Forecast 4/1) 4.94 pts - David's record on (A-List type) 'Value' selections is not one of his best in my books: 160Gains/130Losses, too tight for being confident that profits have accrued. One can rightly wish it were a few notches better. His results on the forecast odds configuration (runners below 13/1) of this race is rather better, however: 109Gains57Losses.
CHOSEN RULER 6.32 pts - My UK Win/Loss ratio on this is only 8W14L, but another relevant stat is one of the "oddities" mentioned yesterday: 6W5L -
*SAINTS BAY 4.74 pts -
4-Leg Place multiple (Ds, Ts, 4-Fold) totalling 2.27 pts + the Xtras = ?
B-List
EXPECTANT HEIR (Forecast 14/1) 0.14 pts -
CIRCLED 0.18 pts -
*COME IN SPANNER 1.48 pts - David's record is good on this configuration: 66Gains28Losses.
*ONE TIIME 2.53 pts - David's stat here is not great: 14Gains11Losses.
4-Leg Place multiple (Ds,Ts & 4-Fold) - totalling my bookie's minimum of 0.55 pts + the Xtras = ?
Combined 2 x 7-Leg Multiples (Ds,Ts & 7-Fold), the 1st totalling my bookie's minimum of 2.85 pts + the Xtras = ?
*There 3 x '6 runners forecast Under 13/1 or 14/1' races on which I don't bet to Win, usually.
No significanly worse or best stats, due to contradictions.
My Base Stakes today: unchanged @ 25 pts A-List, 13 pts B-List.
Good luck!

Sunday, April 13, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

Apr 13 outcomes
Small stats-adjusted stake levels and the 6 big fields (of more than 12 runners) lowered my expectations. So mixed results were not a surprise. I broke even, almost to the cent.
A-List
SELECT DRAW (Best) 20.33 pts - "It's always concerning when one runner in the collection is staked significally higher than the others..." I wondered if it isn't best to either back it, and no others, singly To Place, then rely on the usual multiples for a possible gain at small risk on the rest, or else not to back it but do the others singly, again fully relying on the multiples to offset the lack of return, on SELECT DRAW in this case. On the former of these options, I would have done better the other day than I did in a very similar situation. (FOUR AMIGOS) Well, the former strategy looked good after SAINTS BAY was unplaced (10.17 gain less 4.74 pts loss straight away). Then CHOSEN RULER failed to oblige ... QED, provisionally, on this, I guess. Worth bearing in mind, anyway, particularly on a significant bet on one of the early races in a sequence - WON +10.17
BABIJCZUK (Valu) (Forecast 4/1) 4.94 pts - David's record on (A-List type) 'Value' selections is not one of his best in my books: 160Gains/130Losses, too tight for being confident that profits have accrued. (One can rightly wish it were a fair few notches better. I would say that Doubles on the Best and (A-List) Value selections are not recommended at this time.) David's results on the forecast odds configuration of this race (runners below 13/1) was rather better: 109Gains57Losses - 2ND +1.98
CHOSEN RULER 6.32 pts - My UK Win/Loss ratio on this is only 8W14L, but another relevant stat is one of the "oddities" mentioned yesterday: 6W5L -
*SAINTS BAY 4.74 pts -
4-Leg Place multiple (Ds, Ts, 4-Fold) totalling 2.27 pts + the Xtra = NET LOSS -2.25
B-List
EXPECTANT HEIR (Forecast 14/1) 0.14 pts - "Unlucky in the straight," the commentator said.
CIRCLED 0.18 pts - Note: the 2 lowest staked runners lost (and the highest one gained). A typical outcome, I find, on this staking system.
*COME IN SPANNER 1.48 pts - "David's record is good on this configuration: 66Gains28Losses" - WON
*ONE TIIME 2.53 pts - David's stat here is not great: 14Gains11Losses - 2ND + 2.53
4-Leg Place multiple (Ds,Ts & 4-Fold) - totalling my bookie's minimum of 0.55 pts + the Xtras = NET GAIN +0.08
Combined 2 x 7-Leg Multiples (Ds,Ts & 7-Fold), totalling my bookie's minimum of 2.85 pts + the Xtras = NET LOSS -2.18
*There were 3 x '6 runners forecast Under 14/1 races' on which, usually, I don't bet To Win: 1 won, today, the others unplaced. Despite the winner today I find myself increasingly confident that this odds spread is to be avoided for Win bets, possibly Place bets, too on the principle that the selection is, so to say, statistically competing for one of 2 places rather than 3.
I reported no significant "worst" or "best" stats, today, due to contradictions in my stats (usually a bad sign, of itself). Of course, in this blog, you can infer the best and worst from the size of my projected adjusted stakes. (I note only anomalous looking alternatives to those, here, if any.)
My Base Stakes are unchanged by today's outcome (25 pts A-List, 13 pts B-List).
Hope you incurred little or no damage to your bank(s) today!

Sunday, April 13, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

Apr 14 preview
Does not look as though Win bets would be an option, today. I rarely do them, anyway, currently.
A-List
BORSCHT (Best) 21.34 *less 6.00 pts (*see below) - My UK Win stat. is not terrific: 62W87L
TIME SHIFT (Value) 2.50 pts - My UK Win stat. is un-encouraging: 24W40L.
A Sequential Place Double is a possibility, ?maybe dropping the 2nd Leg if the 1st succeeds.
*Alternatively, I could treat the 1st Leg as notionally within the Single place bet on Borscht (as the computed stake is looking a touch high). Then, if that place bet succeeds, I can extrapolate what the gain would have been as a 1st Leg of my Sequential Double and chance just this gain as a real supplement to the standard Place single on Time Shift. Yes, I like it. This is what I shall do. *6.00 pts -
B-List - No selections
Neither of the above races is a '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1 race.'
My Base Stake is unchanged @ 25 pts for the A-List, with 13 pts carried forward re. the B-List.
Good luck!

Monday, April 14, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

Apr 14 outcome
"Does not look as though Win bets would be an option, today," I wrote in my preview. Well, in the event, neither won. And note, the higher staked one Placed, whereas the lower one Lost, a common occurrence, I find, happily.
The A-List
BORSCHT (Best) 21.34 *less 6.00 pts (*see below) - My UK Win stat. was not terrific: 62W87L - 3RD +12.27 net
TIME SHIFT (Value) 2.50 pts - My UK Win stat. was, un-encouragingly, 24W40L.
A Sequential Place Double was 'on,' but I did drop the 2nd Leg - though, as it happened, not because the 1st succeeded.
*As planned I did treat the 1st Leg notionally as within the existing Single place bet on Borscht (for the computed stake had looking a touch high to me). I did then extrapolate what the gain would have been as a genuine 1st Leg of my Sequential Double and was just going to chance this on Time Shift when I timed out on it - a mistake that worked in my favour (this time) *6.00 pts - GAIN +4.80
The B-List - No selection
Neither of today's races was a '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1 one.'
My Base Stake will remain @ 25 pts for the A-List & 13 pts re. the B-List tomorrow.
I hope you are pleased with your return on the day!

Monday, April 14, 2008  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Apr 14 outcome
My stats are not too endorsive, but if David is spot on ...
The A-List
*CASA DOMANI (Best) 8.79 pts - My UK Wins stat. is not encouraging: 22W41L. David's results in this race category in my records are only modest: 66Gains48Losses and, therefore, (likely) unprofitable so far. This category is the one I have been highlighting as mostly to be avoided for Win bets. So, will probably win by 10 lengths!
ETERNAL'S CHOICE (Value) (Forecast 11/1) 1.68 pts - My UK Wins stat. is not encouraging: 18W29L.
*HOT DICE 5.03 pts - David's record in this category is very good: 87Gains41Losses
JACK AND ICE 11.86 pts - My computed stake has been upwardly influenced by quirky stats which I let go without correction
Multiple (Place Ds,Ts & 4-Fold) totalling 1.71 pts
The B-List - No selection
2 selections are in '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' races.
My Base Stake is 25 pts for the A-List & 13 pts re. the B-List.
Good luck!

Tuesday, April 15, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

PS to Apr 15 Preview
A non-runner in CASA DOMANI's race has necessitated a revision of my entry.
The revised choice of stats for me to consult produces a more favourable impression of its chances. David's record, here, is now 110Gains57Losses. My record for UK wins in this category is just about acceptable, so I still think it not one for a win bet.
My stake is now 26.49 pts and my multiples stake now totals 2.82 pts.
Good luck!

Tuesday, April 15, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

Apr 15 outcome
My stats were not too endorsive, but if David proved spot on ... Well, was nearly spot on enough (one of the losers was 4th) and I came out with a 7 pts profit.
The A-List
CASA DOMANI (Best) Revised 26.49 pts (from 8.79) - The revised UK Win stat. not over-encouraging: 53W74L. David's results very good, however. Race runners were reduced to 7, so my stake not doubled (doubling is something I do on computed stakes on selections in 5-12 runner races [inclusive] with the single exception of 7): WON (by 4 lengths, I think I heard) +10.60
ETERNAL'S CHOICE (Value) (Forecast 11/1) 1.68 pts - My UK Wins stat. not encouraging
*HOT DICE 5.03 pts - David's record in this category is very good: 87Gains41Losses
JACK AND ICE 11.86 pts - My computed stake had been upwardly influenced by quirky stats which I let go without correction: WON +5.93
Usual Multiple, totalling a revised 2.82 pts (from 1.71) + Sequential Double as an Xtra = NET LOSS -2.84
The B-List - No selection.
1 selection was in the '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I don't favour for Win bets: ETERNAL'S CHOICE came 4th.
My Base Stake remains unchanged for tomorrow @ 25 pts for the A-List & 13 pts for the B-List.
Hope you did all right!

Tuesday, April 15, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

Apr 16 Preview
Most of my stats are solidly endorsive of David's selections today.
The A-List
LITTLE ADAM (Best) Capped @ 50 pts (from 281.57) I think I'll chance the full 50
NUCLEAR FORCE (Value) (Forecast 5/1) 9.94 pts - My Win stat. for the UK is 11W15L, and another stat is an (eccentric) 6W5L, but these are mild enough negatives, perhaps
THE CAVERN CLUB 15.81 pts - My Win stat. for the UK is 62W87L.
*FANTHEN 2.06 pts - 6 runners Forecast @ under 16/1. Don't like that stat. for Win bets, otherwise the big field is a main negative. David's record in this category is a healthy 75Gains47Losses, but, of course, that is quite a lot of losses at the end of the day; hence the low stake computation
Usual Multiple, totalling 19.34 pts + Xtras if any = ?
The B-List -
PODAROK 1.31 pts -
MUSCLE UP 2.32 pts -
DANDEE TOPWIN 0.97 pts -
The usual Multiple totalling 0.55 the bookie minimum + Xtras if any = ?
All Up Place Multiple (7 Leg) incl Ds,Ts&7-Fold totalling 6.41 pts + Xtras if any = ?
*Only 1 selection in my, pet hate, '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category.
Worse stat. (elements of) lurk within my computations for PODAROK and FANTHEN, so I would skip these selections for Win bets were I thinking of doing any.
My Base Stake is unchanged @ 25 pts for the A-List & 13 pts for the B-List.
Hope you do all right! Good luck!

Wednesday, April 16, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

Apr 16 Results
Most of my stats. were solidly endorsive of David's selections today. (It was a good day for me to have made careless slips that - thanks to his excellent selections - worked to my advantage). For those who chanced Win bets, though, it will be disappointing that only NUCLEAR FORCE obliged. I'd had a feeling there were going to be more, I must say, though, I was not tempted myself in that department as my stats. were not really as endorsive of wins as they were of placings. Gains today totalled +66.63 pts. Very pleasing.
Thanks David!!! (He's is a punter's God-send, I'm telling you.)
The A-List:
LITTLE ADAM (Best) Capped @ 50 pts (from 281.57): 2ND +15.00
NUCLEAR FORCE (Value) (Forecast 5/1) 9.94 pts - My Win stat. for the UK is 11W15L, and another stat is an (eccentric) 6W5L, "mild enough negatives:" WON +4.97
THE CAVERN CLUB 15.81 pts - My Win stat. for the UK is [only] 62W87L: 2ND +7.90
*FANTHEN 2.06 pts - A '6 runners Forecast @ under 16/1' race. Don't like that for Win bets, otherwise the big field is a main negative. David's record in this category is a healthy 75Gains47Losses, but, of course, that is quite a lot of losses at the end of the day, hence the low stake computation: 3RD +0.62
The usual Place Multiple, Ds,Ts&4-Fold, totalling 19.34 pts + Xtra (Sequential Double) Note: Commonly I do "Xtras" following only losers but today I did one here in error (it should have been exclusive to the AllUp multiple) = WON +27.04
The B-List:
PODAROK 1.31 pts - 2ND +0.52
MUSCLE UP 2.32 pts -
DANDEE TOPWIN 0.97 pts - 2ND +0.68
Place Multiple totalling 0.51 pts (for just 3 Legs)+ No Xtra = NET LOSS -0.18
7-Legs All Up Place Multiple incl Ds,Ts&7-Fold totalling 19.34 pts (In error!! Supposed to have been only 6.41 - got my categories mixed up - what a [lucky] dope!) + Xtra (Sequential Double) Note: In the AllUp I usually let B-List losers go without following up on them with "Xtras" on the remaining selections but I decided not to, today, after MUSCLE UP lost (taking a bit of a chance on Fanthen/3rd to Place next - I felt there was a good chance of recovery, if it didn't, on LITTLE ADAM/2nd) = NET GAIN +12.40
*Only 1 selection in my, pet hate, '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category: finished 3rd.
Worse stats. (elements of, anyway) lurked within my computations for PODAROK/2nd and FANTHEN/3rd, so I would have skipped these for Win bets had I been doing any.
My Base Stakes remain unchanged for tomorrow @ 25 pts for the A-List & 13 pts for the B.
Hope you did all right, too!

Wednesday, April 16, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

Apr 17 Preview
My stats look fairly endorsive of David's A-List selections today, but my gut feeling is to expect "mixed results."
The A-List
COCKY CHAFF (Best) Capped @ 50 pts (from 252.98) I may chance 25 pts, as forecast odds of around 2/1 make me feel uneasy, quite a lot of these get turned over -
SHE'S JUST DREAMY (Value) 20.84 pts - David's record is good, here: 27Gains10Losses -
*BANVI MAEVE 13.52 pts - One of my stats is 23W43L, also the Forecast is 15/8 in a "big" field (marginally @ 13) -
MARY'S MAGIQUE 7.82 pts - David's record in this category is, for him, weak: 32Gains27Losses, a definite (small scale) loss-maker so far -
The usual Place Multiple, Ds,Ts&4-Fold, totalling 18.45 pts + Xtra/s if any = ?
The B-List - My UK stats not too encouraging, here, in contrast to David's, Lujainator excepted
*OUR LUCAS 0.48 pts (Forecast 13/1) -
*LUJAINATOR 0.51 pts - David's unusually weak stat again, here: 32Gains27Losses -
BENEFIT ROAD 0.43 pts (Forecast 9/1) -
3-Legs Place Multiple totalling 0.16 pts (or bookie's minimum) + Xtra/s if any = ?
7-Legs All Up Place Multiple incl Ds,Ts&7-Fold totalling 5.19 pts + Xtra/s if any = ?
*3 selections in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets.
Worse stats: LUJAINATOR.
Danger of 7 runner fields is high (4 of the 7 races have fields of 8 currently).
My Base Stakes are unchanged today @ 25 pts for the A-List & 13 pts for the B-List.
Hope you do all right! Good luck!

Thursday, April 17, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

Apr 17 Results
My gut feeling was to expect "mixed results." Sadly, that is what we got and I lost more points than I cared to at this time. "That's racing."
The A-List
COCKY CHAFF (Best) Capped @ 50 pts (from 252.98) I chanced only 25 pts, as forecast odds of around 2/1 make me feel uneasy - Slow away, I think, had to make up ground, and that was that
SHE'S JUST DREAMY (Value) 20.84 pts - David's record good, here: 27Gains10Losses - Sounded like a good run. 4th I think
*BANVI MAEVE 13.52 pts - One of my stats is 23W43L, also the Forecast is 15/8 in a "big" field (marginally @ 13) - 2ND +0.54 Disappointing return
MARY'S MAGIQUE 7.82 pts - David's record in this category modest: 32Gains27Losses, one of few loss-makers up to now - WON +0.78
The usual Place Multiple, Ds,Ts&4-Fold, totalling 30.48 pts (revised) + Xtra = NET LOSS -20.97 (missed Leg 1)
The B-List - My UK stats not too encouraging, here, in contrast to David's, Lujainator excepted
*OUR LUCAS 0.48 pts (Forecast 13/1) - WON +0.38
*LUJAINATOR 0.51 pts - David's weakest stat of this bunch: 32Gains27Losses - 3RD +0.49
BENEFIT ROAD 0.43 pts (Forecast 9/1) -
3-Legs Place Multiple totalling 0.16 pts (or bookie's minimum) + No Xtra = NET LOSS -0.04
7-Legs All Up Place Multiple incl Ds,Ts&7-Fold totalling 4.56 pts (revised) + Xtra = NET LOSS -2.05 (missed Legs 1&2)
*3 selectionS in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets: 1 Won, 2 Placed
Worse stats: LUJAINATOR/3rd
Danger of 7 runner fields is high (4 of the 7 races have fields of 8 currently).
My Base Stakes are unchanged for tomorrow @ 25 pts for the A-List & 13 pts for the B-List.
Hope you did better than me!

Friday, April 18, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

Apr 18 preview
I get no strong feeling. If anything, slightly too many (for comfort) of my stats are less than encouraging. I guess 'mixed results' has to be the expectation. On modest stakes, 'a good day' needs David to have been on form.
The A-List
KING REX (Best) Stats not strong e.g., David's record, here, is 14Gains11Losses: 15.81 pts -
*EL FIGARO (Value) (Forecast 5/1) 3.62 pts -
*MUZZIO 11.56 pts -
GIVE IT A HUNDRED 2.22 pts - David's record, here, is 3Gains0Losses (100% success!)
(Maybe) The usual Place Multiple, Ds,Ts&4-Fold, totalling 2.08 pts + Xtra/s if any = ?
The B-List
*PAPER BOY 0.53 pts (7 runners) -
HONOUR BAY 0.36 pts (Forecast 16/1) -
*DODGE BALL 0.41 pts -
PORTAL 0.23 pts (Forecast 16/1) -
(Maybe) Place Multiple totalling bookie's minimum + Xtra/s if any = ?
(Maybe) 2 x 7-Leg All Up Place Multiple incl Ds,Ts&7-Fold totalling bookie's minimum + Xtra/s if any = ?
*4 in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets
Worse stats: No stand out, several candidates
My Base Stakes are unchanged @ 25 pts for the A-List & 13 pts for the B-List.
Hope you do all right! Good luck!

Friday, April 18, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

Apr 18 preview
With David's selections a bad day, more often than not, is followed by an extra good one. Not this time. You can rely on it, normally. I have rarely regretted doing so. Is this expectation of mine still valid, I ask myself? Has anything changed?
I blend my UK race stats with David's selections stats (doubled re. the A-List), with the forecast odds, then adjust for small/large fields, & thus arrive at my stats-adjusted indicated stake. Today, my UK stats had painted an un-hopeful picture in the main, but David's record was, by contast, not at all bad. I'd hoped, therefore, it would be yet another one when his selections 'transcended' my UK stats' gloomy influence upon the level of the stakes - but they didn't - and I am bound to confess that this year has become a puzzle, because this has happened more often in recent times than I recall from the more distant past. My UK stats minimized loss, today (as always - just as they do vice versa) but why are good UK stats /David's good record stats not coinciding more often, seemingly of a sudden?
My stats are FULL of indirectly glowing tributes to David's selection process (gain/loss), but, lately, my better UK stats (mostly win/loss) have stopped coinciding with David's better ones - hence my generally low stakes this year. (The adjusted-stakes, obviously, compute highest when all favourable elements line up.) Why this seeming change? Has David altered his selection method, somehow, this year?
The A-List
KING REX (Best) Stats not strong e.g., David's record, here, is 14Gains11Losses: 15.81 pts - WON +6.32
*EL FIGARO (Value) (Forecast 5/1) 3.62 pts -
*MUZZIO 11.56 pts - NON RUNNER
GIVE IT A HUNDRED 2.22 pts - David's record, here, was 3Gains0Losses (100% success just blown!)
The usual Place Multiple, Ds,Ts&4-Fold, totalling 2.08 pts + Xtra/s = NET LOSS -3.42
The B-List
*PAPER BOY 0.53 pts (7 runners) -
HONOUR BAY 0.36 pts (Forecast 16/1) - "Unlucky" the commentator remarked, was 4th I think
*DODGE BALL 0.41 pts -
PORTAL 0.23 pts (Forecast 16/1) -
Place Multiple totalling bookie's minimum + Xtra/s = LOST -0.80
2 x 7-Leg All Up Place Multiple incl Ds,Ts&7-Fold totalling bookie's minimum + Xtra/s if any = NET LOSS -5.98
*4 in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets - 3 unplaced, 1 non-runner
Worse stats: No stand out, several candidates
My Base Stakes remain unchanged for tomorrow - @ 25 pts for the A-List & 13 pts for the B-List.
Hope you did much better than I did!

Friday, April 18, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

Apr 18 preview
Might be a good day despite a fair sprinkling of poor UK race stats confusing the picture. Counter-balancing are some extra good stats on David's past results. Maybe the usual expected 'good day after a bad one' will prove to have been just a day late?
The A-List
DANE JULIA (Best) Stats only OK: 15.76 pts - 3RD +6.30
*PINNACLES (Value) 18.84 pts: David's race stat good: 87Gains42Losses -
VANDALO 11.43 pts -
HULLABALOO 6.57 pts: David's race record good: 17Gains8Losses - 2ND +2.63
The usual Place Multiple, Ds,Ts&4-Fold, totalling 2.74 pts + Xtra/s if any = ?
The B-List
*LUCKY DIVA 0.46 pts - 3RD +0.51
EL MAZE 1.95 pts (Forecast 13/2) - Quirky UK stats boosted the stake level -
SHE'S IN THE GUIDE 0.65 pts -
A GRADE 1.00 pts -
Place Multiple totalling bookie's minimum + Xtra/s if any = ?
2 x 7-Leg All Up Place Multiple incl Ds,Ts&7-Fold totalling bookie's minimum + Xtra/s if any = ?
*3 in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets - no win yet, 2 placed so far
Worse stats: LUCKY DIVA/3rd; No clear cut Best, but PINNACLES computed the highest stake
My Base Stakes unchanged from yesterday - @ 25 pts for the A-List & 13 pts for the B-List.
Hope you do all right! Good luck!

Saturday, April 19, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

Apr 19 result
"Might be a good day" I wrote in my preview, despite a fair sprinkling of poor UK race stats that confused the picture. There were also some good stats on David's past performance in like-race categories. The expected 'good day after a bad one' seems to have arrived, after all - a day late.
The A-List
DANE JULIA (Best) Stats only OK: 15.76 pts - 3RD +6.30
*PINNACLES (Value) 18.84 pts: David's race stat good: 87Gains42Losses - WON +7.54
VANDALO 11.43 pts - WON +4.57
HULLABALOO 6.57 pts: David's race record good: 17Gains8Losses - 2ND +2.63
The usual Place Multiple, Ds,Ts&4-Fold, totalling 2.74 pts + no Xtra = WON +2.99
The B-List
*LUCKY DIVA 0.46 pts - 3RD +0.51
EL MAZE 1.95 pts (Forecast 13/2) - Quirky UK stats boosted the stake level - 2ND +2.73
SHE'S IN THE GUIDE 0.65 pts -
A GRADE 1.00 pts -
Place Multiple totalling bookie's minimum + Xtra/s = NET LOSS -0.55
2 x 7-Leg All Up Place Multiple incl Ds,Ts&7-Fold totalling bookie's minimum + no Xtra = NET GAIN +4.23
*3 in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets - 1 won, 2 placed
Worse stats: LUCKY DIVA/3rd; Best stats: PINNACLES/Won computed the highest stake.
My Base Stakes remain unchanged for tomorrow: @ 25 pts for the A-List & 13 pts for the B-List.
Hope you did all right, too!

Saturday, April 19, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

Apr 19 result
4 big fields, most of the stakes computed low: a possible iffy day?
The A-List
LEICA FERRARI (Best) (Forecast 6/1) 3.21 pts: My race stats no guide, as there are almost none -
LOUGHRAN LAD (Value) 2.47 pts -
*VARVISTA 4.34 pts -
*JUERGA 10.52 pts David's race record is good: 18Gains8Losses -
The usual Place Multiple, Ds,Ts&4-Fold, totalling 1.28 pts + Xtra/s if any = ?
The B-List
ASHANTE 0.34 pts (Forecast 11/1): David's race stat good: 14Gains8Losses -
KING'S EMPIRE 0.07 pts (Forecast 6/1) David's race stat, here, one of the worst I have: 8Gains14Losses -
*GOLDEN HAWK 0.06 pts (Forecast 33/1) - DISCO CHAT 1.48 pts Good stats boosted the stake level (e.g., David's 21Gains12Losses) -
Place Multiple totalling bookie's minimum + Xtra/s if any = ?
2 x 7-Leg All Up Place Multiple incl Ds,Ts&7-Fold totalling bookie's minimum + Xtra/s if any = ?
*3 in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets
Worse general race stats: KING'S EMPIRE; Best: No general stand out
My Base Stakes are unchanged from yesterday: @ 25 pts for the A-List & 13 pts for the B-List.
Hope you do all right! Good luck!

Sunday, April 20, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

Apr 20 result

"An possible iffy day?" my Preview cautioned, but was it better than that, considering the (rare) failure of both the Best & Value bets in the A-List? The B-List bailed out the A to a degree, in the event, especially Disco Chat's win. It had crossed my mind, by the way, to lump this runner into a multiple with the A-List and, with hindsight, that would have ranked as inspired! Anyway, it is an option to bear in mind for another time (I mean, in grouping the multiples, to take my cue partly from the level of computed stakes.) I gained 8 pts in aggregate; so today couldn't have been "iffy," could it?
The A-List
LEICA FERRARI (Best) (Forecast 6/1) 3.21 pts: "Got tired" said the commentator.
LOUGHRAN LAD (Value) 2.47 pts -
*ZARVISTA 4.34 pts - WON +0.87
*JUERGA 10.52 pts David's race record is good: 18Gains8Losses - 3RD +6.31
The usual Place Multiple, Ds,Ts&4-Fold, totalling 1.28 pts + Xtra = NET LOSS -1.25
The B-List
ASHANTE 0.34 pts (Forecast 11/1): David's race stat good: 14Gains8Losses - 2ND +0.61
KING'S EMPEROR 0.07 pts (Forecast 6/1) David's race stat, here, one of the worst I have: 8Gains14Losses - 2ND +0.08
*GOLDEN HANK 0.06 pts (Forecast 33/1) -
DISCO CHAT 1.48 pts Good stats boosted the stake level (e.g., David's 21Gains12Losses) - WON +3.40 (pleasing result)
Place Multiple totalling bookie's minimum + Xtra = NET GAIN +2.84
2 x 7-Leg All Up Place Multiple incl Ds,Ts&7-Fold totalling bookie's minimum + Xtra/s = NET GAIN +0.90
*3 in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets: 1 won, 1 placed, 1 lost.
Worse general race stats: KING'S EMPEROR/2nd; Best: No stand out (aside from, on the highest computed stake principle, JUERGA/3rd).
My Base Stake is changed from tomorrow to 14 pts for the B-List (the A-List's remains unchanged @ 25 pts)
Hope you did all right!

Sunday, April 20, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

Apr 21 Preview

Solid, if not spectacular, stats. 3 big fields. Looks like today could go either way.
The A-List
SYREON (Best) 4.87 pts -
*MILAKAI (Value) 7.09 pts. David's race record especially good: 88Gains42Losses -
JERRYLEE 4.05 pts - My UK Wins ratio weak: 18W29L -
MAGIC GRACE 6.66 pts. David's race record especially good: 111Gains57Losses -
The usual Place Multiple, Ds,Ts&4-Fold, totalling 1.42 pts + Xtra/s if any = ?
The B-List - No selection
*1 in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category (ratio 23W42L) that I avoid for Win bets
Worse general race stats: No stand out; Best: MAGIC GRACE (other than, on the 'highest computed stake principle,' MILAKAI).
My Base Stakes is unchanged: A-List @ 25 pts.
Hope you do all right! Good luck!

Monday, April 21, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

Apr 21 Result

Today "could go either way," I wrote. By this rather obvious assessment, I meant that my stats offered no clear grounds for confidence nor strong reasons for gloom.
The A-List
SYREON (Best) 4.87 pts - 4th
*MILAKAI (Value) 7.09 pts. David's race record especially good: 88Gains42Losses -
JERRYLEE 4.05 pts - My UK Wins ratio weak: 18W29L -
MAGIC GRACE 6.66 pts. David's race record especially good: 111Gains57Losses - 3RD +4.00
The usual Place Multiple, Ds,Ts&4-Fold, totalling 1.42 pts + Xtras = NET LOSS -2.58
The B-List - No selection
*1 in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category (ratio 23W42L) that I avoid for Win bets: Unplaced.
Worse general race stats: No stand out; Best: MAGIC GRACE/3rd (other than, on the 'highest computed stake principle,' MILAKAI/Lost).
My A-List Base Stake is unchanged after today @ 25 pts but the next B-List selections will use 14 pts.
Hope you did better, somehow, than I did!

Monday, April 21, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

May 03 Preview

My stats used on RadioTipClub of TABonline.com were unsuccessful whilst David was away. The best I can say of them is they probably minimized losses. It does not take many losing selections to scupper a Place Only strategy, of course, and win tips are not necessarily the same selections as place tips would be for any given race. So, welcome back David, my dedicated Place bet tipster of the year!!
The A-List
ALL ABOUT ANNIE (Best) 11.90 pts -
EL CAMBIO (Value) 5.45 pts -
MATZUMI (Forecast 11/10) CAPPED @ 25.00 pts (Base Stake) from 263.03 pts: Caused by my extra good UK races stats -
LARS BOY (Forecast 6/1) 5.45 pts -
The usual Place Multiple, Ds,Ts&4-Fold, totalling a capped 8.00 pts (from 17.86 pts) + Xtra/s if any = ?
The B-List
All under 1.00 pts - David's race record is worst here on VALOROSO (33GAINS27LOSSES). Otherwise they are pretty good; it's my UK stats that depress the level of the stakes.
2 x 7-Leg All Up Place Multiple incl Ds,Ts&7-Fold totalling bookie's minimum + Xtra/s if any = ?
DODGE THE THORNS (List B) is alone in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets.
Worse general race stats: No clear stand-out; Best: MATZUMI.
My Base Stakes are: 14 pts for the B-List (recently increased) and 25 pts for the A-List
Hope you do all right! Good luck.

Saturday, May 03, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

May 03 Results
I overlooked to say in my Preview that David's race stats were good in every case except Valoroso - and that wasn't exactly bad @ 33Gains27Losses. Doubts in my mind were caused by my UK race (win based) stats which were not as endorsive.
The A-List
ALL ABOUT ANNIE (Best) 11.90 pts - Here my UK stats were 62W87L & 51W51L which dragged the stake down a bit, thankfully - Contended then didn't make the frame
EL CAMBIO (Value) 5.45 pts - WON +9.27
MATZUMI (Forecast 11/10) CAPPED @ 25.00 pts (Base Stake) (down from 263.03 pts caused by my extra good UK races stats) - As today's Best bet had already lost, cautiously I invested only 18.10 pts in the end (very nearly less) - 3RD +10.86
LARS BOY (Forecast 6/1) 5.45 pts - 2ND +4.36
The usual Place Multiple, Ds,Ts&4-Fold, totalling a (capped) 8.00 pts (from 17.86 pts) + Xtra = NET GAIN +21.96
The B-List
All stakes under 1.00 pts - 4XPL (incl 1W) =TOTAL GAIN +2.83
Usual Multiple on B-List + No Xtra = GAIN +4.46
1 x 7-Leg All Up Place Multiple incl Ds,Ts&7-Fold totalling 4.50 pts + Xtra = NET GAIN +26.96
DODGE THE THORNS (List B) was alone in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets: WON
Worse general race stats: No clear stand-out; Best: MATZUMI/3rd.
My Base Stakes remain unchanged @ 14 pts for the B-List and 25 pts for the A-List
It was a good (very nearly excellent) return performance on David's part! Personally, I am delighted he is back from holiday.
Hope you did even better!

Saturday, May 03, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

May 04 Preview
David's race records, here, are good - approaching a ratio of 2 Gains per 1 Loss about all bar two: TOP ROCK & KWILA'S LAW which both stand at, a still modestly favourable, 48Gains36Losses.
My UK race stats are not nearly so good, though. And big fields always put me off slightly, there are 4 today.
Doesn't look a day for win bets, perhaps? Whilst ever hopefuI, I shall be surprised if we succeed really well today.
The A-List
Non-runner (Best)
*BIG SPIDA (Value) 4.47 pts: I have concluded that the gains/loss record on Value bets is not quite good enough for single bets (164Gains136Losses). However, the selections play a good part in multiple bets when they succeed and are justified through those. This said, I do usually back them! But maybe I will put them into just the multiples more often in future -
TOP ROCK 3.16 pts -
*RAFFIN 6.76 pts -
The usual Place Multiple, Ds,Ts&3-Fold, totalling 1.60 pts + Xtra/s if any = ?
The B-List
ANGUS 0.91 Pts - 2ND +0.64
Stakes are each around 1.00 pt except for GOLD BUCKLE 5.63 pts, unusually high for a B-List tip.
In the wrong list!? But David is usually right, of course -
The usual Multiple at bookie's minimum stakes + Xtra/s if any = ?
Usual 'all up' Multiple 1 x 7-Leg Ds,Ts&7-Fold @ bookie's minimum stakes + Xtra/s if any = ?
*2 in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (But 3 others as near to this as dammit.) Yes, we'll be lucky to get wins, today, as such.
Worse general race stats: No clear stand-out; Best: GOLD BUCKLE, I'd say.
My Base Stakes are unchanged @ 14 pts for the B-List and 25 pts for the A-List
Hope we do much better than I fear! Good luck!

Sunday, May 04, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

May 04 Results
"Whilst ever hopefuI, I shall be surprised if we succeed really well today" I previewed, and my pessimism seems to have been more than born out - despite David's encouraging book record on the race categories represented. Yesterday my gloomy UK stats were swept aside by his good record; today that table was turned. Impossible to legislate for such topsy-turviness! One can but exercise caution, caution, caution?!
Specifically, (1) I advised placing no win bets today. There were no wins. (2) I referred to 2 runners whose stats were the worst in David's record. Both lost. (3) My best stats seemed to be on Gold Buckle. It was the only higher staked of my wagers to succeed. (3) I always highlight runners in 'races with 6 runners forecast @ under 14/1': both lost today. (4) I said the Value bet does not seem to be providing value when used on single bets. Today it cost me a third of my A-List singles loss.
However, I was gloomy about "big fields." In fact, the outcome on those was 50/50: 2 PL2L. But ... on another day everything would, and will, look vastly different, of course. Still, today I feel as if I am doing something right some of the time! My stats tend to be usefully revealing about many a day's prospects.
The A-List
Non-runner (Best) - A non-runner is always liable to unbalance outcomes. A Best Bet defector, more than most.
*BIG SPIDA (Value) 4.47 pts -
TOP ROCK 3.16 pts -
*RAFFIN 6.76 pts -
The usual Place Multiple, Ds,Ts&3-Fold, totalling 1.60 pts + Xtras = LOST -3.04
The B-List - Note: The B-List's better record of the two lists has been such as to increase my Base stake on it from 10 pts at the start of February to the present 14. The Base stake on the A-List is currently 25 but close to being increased to 26 pts (having started at 24 in the same period). This is not a 'size of bank' based process. An increase through my method is achieved by gain days exceeding loss days in number. The minimum period before a next 1 pt increase to a Base stake can be applied is 5 consecutive win days. Each loss day prolongs that period by a day (each day's delay cancelled out by a win day, of course). If the impact on the Base stake of the performance is upward, one knows a bet category is winning more often than it is losing. In these terms it is possible to say the B-List has been more successful than the A-List since the start of February. Of course, it has to be born in mind that the A-List inherited the record of these bets from before the beginning of the split into two lists. Perhaps I am wrong to apply the lower Base stake to the B-List? I cannot say for certain but it may be that the Base stake of 25 may have owed its rise from 10 points at the start to that part of the then single list of tips that is now the B-List! Perhaps it has always been the better half of the lists unbeknownst! There's a thought!!!
ANGUS 0.91 Pts - 2ND +0.64
FUSELAGE 1.20 pts - 2ND +0.96
KWILA'S LAW 1.11 pts -
GOLD BUCKLE 5.63 pts - 3RD +2.25 (In "wrong" list? I wondered in my preview! No that there can be such a thing.)
The usual Multiple at bookie's minimum stakes (0.55 pts) + Xtra = NET GAIN +0.12
Usual 'all up' Multiple 1 x 7-Leg Ds,Ts&7-Fold @ bookie's minimum stakes + Xtras = NET LOSS -3.11
*2 in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets: Both lost (But 3 others were as near as dammit to those: 1PL2L).
Worse general race stats: No clear stand-out; Best: GOLD BUCKLE, I thought.
My Base Stakes are unchanged for tomorrow @ 14 pts for the B-List and 25 pts for the A-List
Hope you did better than me somehow!

Sunday, May 04, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

May 04 Preview
Well, today David's record on the A-List race categories is not
good. My UK stats aren't, either, though they include 5 oddities which make them extra suspect. His record on the B-List categories is better, my UK stats indifferent.
As always, David's skill can save the day! Judged on my stats he had his hands full, today!
The A-List
DAINTREE DUKE (Best) 9.32 pts
DISMISSAL (Value) 0.67 pts - Minimal stats available
METRICS 1.37 pts -
FUJI GIRL 2.17 pts -
The usual Place Multiple, Ds,Ts&4-Fold, totalling O.83 pts + Xtra/s if any = ?
The B-List
RIVERSDALE 3.50 pts
CONTADOR 0.27 pts - Minimal stats available
CYCLONE LADY 2.05 pts
DIFUYUNG 1.23 pts
The usual Multiple at bookie's minimum stakes (0.55 pts) + Xtra/s if any = ?
Usual 'all up' Multiple 2 x 7-Leg Ds,Ts&7-Fold @ bookie's minimum stakes (2.85 pts) + Xtra/s if any = ?
None is in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (But 4 others are as near as dammit).
Worse general race stats: METRICS possibly; Best: RIVERSDALE catches my eye.
My Base Stakes are unchanged @ 14 pts for the B-List and 25 pts for the A-List
Hope you do all right! Good luck!

Monday, May 05, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

May 05 Results
"As always, David's skill can save the day" I previewed, and it did! My stats were not encouraging, but stats do not run races. I have to say, though, that any process which throws up selections that so comprehensively buck trends deserves a firm pat on the back.
The A-List
DAINTREE DUKE (Best) 9.32 pts - WON +2.80
DISMISSAL (Value) 0.67 pts - Minimal stats available - WON +0.20
METRICS 1.37 pts - WON +0.27
FUJI GIRL 2.17 pts - NO RUN
The usual Place Multiple, Ds,Ts&4-Fold, totalling O.83 pts + no Xtra = WON +0.46
The B-List
RIVERSDALE 3.50 pts - 3RD +2.45
CONTADOR (Forecast 13/1) 0.27 pts - Minimal stats available
CYCLONE LARRY 2.05 pts - 3RD +1.03
DIFUYUNG 1.23 pts - WON +0.12
The usual Multiple at bookie's minimum stakes (0.55 pts) + no Xtra = NET LOSS -0.11
Usual 'all up' Multiple 2 x 7-Leg Ds,Ts&7-Fold @ bookie's minimum stakes (2.85 pts) + Xtras = NET GAIN +2.68. I dropped the loser from my 1st 7Leg accum. The Xtras were not standard owing to the close proximity of race times.
None was in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (But 4 others are as near as dammit - 4PL(incl 3W)).
Worse general race stats: METRICS possibly/WON (David's record here was 5Gains9Losses); Best: RIVERSDALE catches my eye/3RD. Both these were among the Oddities in my stats: 6W5L)
My Base Stakes remain unchanged @ 14 pts for the B-List and 25 pts for the A-List
Hope you did better than me!

Tuesday, May 06, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

May 06 Preview
After yesterday, I am embarrassed to open my big mouth. My UK stats suggest no win bets on ASHLAND and DISINTEGRATE. But they are very encouraging about RAEBURN (140W90L). David's record is progressively good on these categories: 84Gains61Losses, 101Gains68Losses & 68Gains29Losses respectively. But in every case, UK & David, that is still quite a lot of losses. Hopefully cautious is my mood today.
The A-List
RAEBURN (Best) Capped at 50 pts (from 401.20!) -
DISINTIGRATE (Forecast 8/1) (Value) 1.71 pts -
ASHLAND (Forecast 5/1) 1.96 pts -
The usual Place Multiple, Ds&3-Fold, totalling 45 pts + Xtra/s if any = ?
The B-List
No selections
None is in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (But 2 are as near as dammit).
Worse general race stats (marginally): ASHLAND; Best (by far): RAEBURN
My Base Stakes remain unchanged @ 14 pts for the B-List and 25 pts for the A-List
Hope you do all right! Good luck!

Tuesday, May 06, 2008  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

May 06 Result
My UK stats had (1) suggested no win bets on ASHLAND and DISINTEGRATE; (2) given strong encouragment about RAEBURN's chances. These advices worked out (this time).
The A-List
RAEBURN (Best) Capped at 50 pts (from 401.20!) - WON +22.26. I toyed with using a reduced stake but went with the 50 pts in the end. (I hope someday relatively soon not to have to Cap any bets at all! 22 pts gained via 50, how much via 401?!)
DISINTIGRATE (Forecast 8/1) (Value) 1.71 pts - 4th. "Good run" said the commentator. It always surprises me when runners attempt to win from what seems excessively far back. This one was 2nd or 3rd last until quite late on, I think. "We wuz robbed," perhaps? In fairness, it can't be easy to position a horse right. The effort to be sure and negotiate a certain place in running is bound to take something off a horse's finish; and midfield is, anyway, often tricky, with the danger of being boxed in by failing runners ahead and accelerating ones to the outside, making you dead in the water in between quite often.
ASHLAND (Forecast 5/1) 1.96 pts -
I didn't do the usual Place Multiple, after all. I decided to let the 1st 2 races run and see. The success of Raeburn persuaded me, as I couln't lose overall, to do the 2nd Leg of what would have been a Sequential Double with Raeburn, taking a chance that DISINTIGRATE made the frame. It didn't, quite = LOSS -14.22
The B-List
No selections
None was in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (But 2 were as near as dammit: 2L).
Worse general race stats: ASHLAND/LOST (Born out, I think); Best (by far): RAEBURN/WON WELL
My Base Stakes remain unchanged @ 14 pts for the B-List and 25 pts for the A-List. If tomorrow is a win day for the A-List, its Base Stake will rise to 26 from the day after.
Hope you did better than me! Not that I an unhappy. I took a chance that nearly paid off at a good price but still ended with a profit, thanks, as always, to David's tipping. I think the signs are that he is very much on form. When he is, chances are very well worth taking, in my experience.

Tuesday, May 06, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

May 07 Preview
My UK stats suggest no win bets the A-List though they are minimal about SONG FOR GUY; B-List win bets maybe on all, according to David's race records, though my UK stats just mediocre. I have seen better stats on other days, not that they guarantee anything.
The A-List
CAP RIVIERA (Best) 17.94 pts -
SONG FOR GUY (Value) 4.55 pts - LOST
AFGHANI 7.97 pts -
CASH IN A HURRY 4.42 pts -
Usual Place Multiple totalling 2.18 pts -
The B-List
*JOYFUL GLOW 0.75 pts - 7 runner field - LOST (3RD)
SISTER AKHAPACS 1.51 pts -
SHOCKIE 1.01 PTS - LOST
BARAKO 2.80 pts - LOST
Usual Multiple totalling minimum stake (O.55 pts)
All-Up Multiple totalling minimum stake (2.85 pts)
*1 is in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (But 3 are as near as dammit - the A-List except for SONG FOR GUY).
Worse general race stats: none stands out other than Song for Guy due to there being next to no race stats on it; Best: No stand out but David's race stats generally quite good
My Base Stakes @ 14 pts for the B-List and 25 pts for the A-List. If today is a win day for the A-List, its Base Stake will rise to 26 from tomorrow.
Hope later results pick up. Not too good at the time of writing (just when my cash flow to cover losses is dodgy!)

Wednesday, May 07, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

May 07 Results
My UK stats suggested no win bets on the A-List though they were minimal about SONG FOR GUY/LOST; B-List win bets were justifiable, I thought, due to David's favourable-ish race records (though my UK stats were less encouraging). It transpired that my gloomy UK race stats were born out, justifying their contribution, I think, towards diminishing stake levels.
The A-List
CAP RIVIERA (Best) 17.94 pts - WON (No bet after all - would have gained +1.79) I rarely abort.
SONG FOR GUY (Value) 4.55 pts -
AFGHANI 7.97 pts - (No bet after all)
CASH IN A HURRY 4.42 pts -
Usual Place Multiple totalling 2.18 pts + Xtra = LOST -3.48
The B-List
*JOYFUL GLOW 0.75 pts - 7 runner field -
SISTER AKHAPACS 1.51 pts - 2ND +1.96
SHOCKIE 1.01 PTS -
BARAKO 2.80 pts -
Usual Multiple totalling minimum stake (O.55 pts) + Xtra = LOST -0.90
All-Up Multiple totalling minimum stake (2.85 pts) + no Xtra = NET LOSS -2.72
*1 is in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets/LOST (But 3 were as near as dammit: the A-List except for SONG FOR GUY:1W2L).
Worse general race stats: none stood out other than Song for Guy due to there being next to no race stats on it; Best: No stand out, but David's race stats were generally quite good
My Base Stakes is unchanged @ 14 pts for the B-List and 25 pts for the A-List. As today was not a win day for the A-List, its Base Stake will not rise to 26 pts tomorrow.
Disappointing; but, stand by: David often bounces back from a day like today big time! I shall be hoping he does, as I am out of betting funds (which, having happened today mid-programme, was as well, or I would have lost a bit more!)

Wednesday, May 07, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

May 07 Results
My stats suggest no win bets on balance. David's record, however, looks as follows: Acceptable: RESOUNDING VICTORY, Good: ETERNAL'S VICTORY, Suspect (at no better than 50/50): SHELF SPACE, Indifferent: MULALEE.
The A-List
**RESOUNDING VICTORY (Forecast 7/2) (Best) 5.97 pts -
*ETERNAL'S VICTORY (Forecast 5/1) (Value) 4.55 pts -
SHELF SPACE 25.48 pts (I may go with only 10% of this as David has made this neither Best not Value runner) -
MULALEE 1.44 pts -
Usual Place Multiple (Place Ds,Ts,4-Fold) totalling 2.15 pts + Xtra/s if any = ?
*1 is in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets. (Another **1 is as near as dammit.)
Worse general race stats: MULALEE possibly, because my favourable UK stats are quirky-suspect and David's record so far is 8Gains/14Losses; Best: SHELF SPACE possibly, because my UK stats are good and, at a quirky 50/50, David's record is perhaps deserving
of a better look to it.
My Base Stake is unchanged @ 25 pts for the A-List.
Good luck!

Thursday, May 08, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

May 08 Results
My stats suggested no win bets, on balance ... but there was one (the Best bet, appropriately).
The A-List
**RESOUNDING VICTORY (Forecast 7/2) (Best) 5.97 pts - WON +3.59
*ETERNAL'S VICTORY (Forecast 5/1) (Value) 4.55 pts - 2ND +1.15
SHELF SPACE 25.48 pts (I risked just 6.61 pts as David had rejected this for Best and Value) - 3RD +3.62
MULALEE 1.44 pts - 2ND +0.58
Usual Place Multiple (Place Ds,Ts,4-Fold) totalling 2.15 pts + no Xtra = WON +4.81
*1 is in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets - came 2nd (Another **1 is as near as dammit - Won)
Worse general race stats: MULALEE, possibly - 2nd; Best: SHELF SPACE, possibly - 3rd.
My Base Stake is unchanged @ 25 pts for the A-List. If tomorrow is a winning day, it will rise to 26 pts after that.
Hope you did all right, too, or rather better!

Thursday, May 08, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

May 09 Preview
On the face of it, my stats today are the best for quite some time, but with elements of quirky-suspiciousness about a couple on the UK wins side. My gut feeling is not to trust them as regard feeding new funds into my account to finance the indicated stakes. Instead I shall invest my current balance with each ensuing race (to the ceilings indicated) and hope that it builds through the day. (Helpfully, the Best bet runs last.) I would not recommend win bets, actually, but Place bets seem to come highly recommended. Theoretically, the Place multiples should do well.
The A-List
*JUERGA (Best) (max) 30.67 pts -
WITH HER (Value) (max) 18.11 pts -
INADESERT (max) 30.22 pts -
BOMBER COMMAND (max) 20.07 pts -
Usual Place Multiple (Place Ds,Ts,4-Fold) totalling 6.19 pts + Xtra/s if any = ?
*1 is in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets. (None is in the 'as near as dammit' category)
Worse general race stats: BOMBER COMMAND; Best: No stand out.
My Base Stake is unchanged @ 25 pts for the A-List. If today is a winning day, it will rise to 26 pts for tomorrow.
Good luck!

Friday, May 09, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

May 09 Preview
"On the face of it," I previewed, "my stats ... are the best for quite some time, but with ... quirky-suspiciousness about a couple on the UK wins side. ... I shall invest my current balance (on) each ensuing race (to the ceilings indicated) ..." The day started to go wrong right away with a scratching. Then, the value bet failed (just) - so in went miserly fresh funds ... etc. ... Eventually, a loss overall. That's racing, I guess.
The A-List
*JUERGA (Best) (max) 30.67 pts - Chanced 11.39 pts - WON +4.56
WITH HER (Value) (max) 18.11 pts - Chanced 15.93 pts - LOST (4th) This is definitely a day, in the circumstances, when I should have left the Value selection unbacked except in the multiples, remembering that the record shows these fail often enough to be iffy on their net contribution to the bank. (Currently the record on them in my book is 166Gains140Losses: I doubt the net 26 gains number enough to lift the account into a profits contribution)
INADESERT (max) 30.22 pts - NO RUN
BOMBER COMMAND (max) 20.07 pts - Chanced 7.12 pts - WON +4.27
Usual Place Multiple (Place Ds,Ts,4-Fold) totalling (revised) 7.65 pts + Xtra = NET GAIN +1.33
*1 is in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets: WON. (None is in the 'as near as dammit' category)
Worse general race stats: BOMBER COMMAND (I ignored, here, favourable but quirky UK race stats: 6W5L & 9W7L) - WON; Best: No stand out. (Actually, the stand out purely on David's record in my book was INADESERT: 61Gains21Losses. My UK stats in its category are currently 53W74L & 51W51L - Not bad; just not good).
My A-List Base Stake is unchanged @ 25 pts for tomorrow.
I am sure you did better than me today!

Friday, May 09, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

May 10 Preview
My stats (sparce in a couple of cases) give an odd, uneven, look to today's selections. I would think mixed results is a highly possible outcome. I have decided to Cap my All-Up multiples.
The A-List
ROYAL DISCRETION (Best) (max) 16.20 pts Total of 5 runners forecast at less than 14/1, all of them under 8/1. Competitive? David's record in this category is luke-warm at 33Gains27Losses -
DOLLY DEVA (Value) 1.80 pts - No stats on this race. I have decided to do win bets on the A-List Value bets for a time, in the hope that the extra return for wins might be where viability lies as regards these singles. I have started off a bank at 26 pts to monitor that way in this case -
FRIENDLY EMBRACE (max) 34.76 pts (Forecast 4/9) 7 runner race (on which I do not double the computed stake which otherwise applies on all 5-12 runner races inclusive) Excellent stats all round, obviously - Win bet indicated, I would think, due to the odds?
**MASAI PRIDE 2.72 pts -
Usual Place Multiple (Place Ds,Ts,4-Fold) totalling 3.47 pts + Xtra/s if any = NET ?
B-List
DELENATII Capped @ 14 pts (max - from 40.09) Excellent stats, obviously ... but in B-List, can't go mad -
**EAGLE ROCK 0.47 pts (Forecast 6/1) **Few stats to go on Chance a win bet, after all? -
**OKEY OKY 0.29 pts **No win bet
**PEPPERWOOD 0.71 pts - David's record here is pretty good at 103Gains70Losses
Usual Place Multiple (Place Ds,Ts,4-Fold) totalling 0.97 pts + Xtra/s if any = NET ?
Usual All Up Place Multiple (Place Ds,Ts, 7-Foldx2) Capped (from 4.44 pts) @ 2/3rds totalling 2.96 + Xtra/s if any = NET ?
No race is in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets. **4 are in the 'as near as dammit' category.
Worse general race stats - OKEY OKY; Best: DELENATII on which David's record is 16Gains7Losses. My UK stats in its category are currently 97W49L & 131W69L. It will be interesting to see how it runs.
My A-List Base Stake is unchanged @ 25 pts, B-List is @ 14 pts.
Good luck!

Saturday, May 10, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

May 10 Results
"... (M)ixed results is a highly possible outcome" I previewed. Well, yes it was, but 3 outright winners from 4 in the A-List is hardly "mixed"! It occurs to me though, there is a faint problem with a web-site offering Place tips that outright win! Makes you wonder if the selection policy is a touch more conservative than it ought to be? (Ha! Some of us are wanting nothing short of the Earth, David.) Policy certainly has to err in that direction because of the damage losing tips do. Better "too many" outright winners, than ditto unplaced losers; every time!
The A-List
ROYAL DISCRETION (Best) 16.20 pts Total of 5 runners forecast at less than 14/1, all of them under 8/1. David's record in this category is luke-warm at, now, 34Gains27Losses - WON +6.48. I should stress that my records on David's selections are quoted with no criticism intended. The way to regard a stat, I think, is that it roughly reflects the level of difficulty of a given race. In theory, David does equally well on all his selections, assuming he uses his formula/ae consistently. The fact that different race categories differ in success levels, is down to forces differing inherently, thus making the predictive task harder in some cases than in others. (If I were David I would be looking at this aspect closely for the future in case it throws up a useful additional filter for his short-listing. Maybe the selection Delenatii today is a case in point? My stats gave it a much lower level of difficulty than his Best bet, I mean.) I am happy to invest less when the level of difficulty appears high as indicated by my race stats. Every gain is equally good, albeit that it is more in amount in some cases than others.
DOLLY DEVA (Value) 1.80 pts to Win - I decided to do Win bets on the A-List 'Value' bets for a time, in the hope that the extra return for wins might be where viability lies as regards these singles. I've started off a bank at 26 pts, to monitor progress that way - The new bank kicks off with a loss, alas. At least Dollydeva was unplaced, in itself a sort of vindication of the reasoning for Win bets in this circ.
FRIENDLY EMBRACE (max) 34.76 pts (Forecast 4/9) 7 runner race - I chanced 8.85 pts, just twice clearing my account balance on it - WON +7.97 (Actually, the - good - Place return would have been fully half as much!)
**MASAI PRIDE 2.72 pts - WON (Too late with my bet) +NIL ('fortunately' my gain would have been small). Cost me a profit on the Multiples, though.
Usual Place Multiple (Place Ds,T,no 4-Fold) totalling (revised) 5.86 pts + Xtras = NET LOSS -1.16
B-List
DELENATII Capped @ 14 pts (from 40.09) - Photo finish - damned near won: 2ND +5.60
**EAGLE ROCK 0.47 pts to win (Forecast 6/1) Chanced a Win bet -
**OKEY OKY 0.29 pts - No bet. Decided to settle for the Xtra bet on it in the Multiple sequence (1st leg of a Sequential Double with the last to run of the 4) - LOST -NIL
**PEPPERWOOD 0.71 pts - David's record here is pretty good at, now, 104Gains70Losses - WON +0.99
Usual Place Multiple (Place Ds,Ts,4-Fold) totalling 0.97 pts + Xtra = NET LOSS -0.56
Usual All-Up Place Multiple (Place Ds,Ts, 7-Fold x 1,missed the 1st & its winner) Capped (from 4.44 pts) @ 2/3rds totalling 2.96+ for Xtras = NET LOSS -1.65
No race is in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets. **4 are in the 'as near as dammit' category: 2W2L (The losers had the lowest computed stake levels of the day, indicating they were very high in predictive difficulty.)
Worse general race stats - OKEY OKY/LOST; Best: DELENATII on which David's record, now, is 17Gains7Losses. My UK stats in its category are currently 97W49L & 131W69L - 2ND
My A-List Base Stake is unchanged for tomorrow @ 25 pts, B-List @ 14 pts.
I expect you did even better than I did!

Saturday, May 10, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

May 11 Preview
My stakes have computed low, so I can't be optimistic. But David's actual race stats are moderately good. They may be the ones that really matter (perhaps every time?). I am interested to see how they day goes in this respect.
The A-List
**WITH A CHANCE (Best) 6.87 pts A negative is my UK Win stat: 8W14L. Big field (more than 12) -
MAGNIFIQUE (Value) 0.56 pts to Win from Bank of 24 (Forecast 12/1) Big field -
*BURMUDA 2.06 pts (Forecast 6/1) David's race record is a positive 103Gains70Losses. Not big field -
**SMOOTH MANOEUVERS 2.06 pts A negative is my UK Win stat: 24W40L. Big field (13) -
Usual Place Multiple (Place Ds,Ts,4-Fold) totalling 0.72 pts + Xtras = ?
No B-List
*1 race is in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (23W43L). **2 are in the 'as near as dammit' category
Worse general race stats: No stand out; Best: No stand out, but possibly BERMUDA, if I ignore the dreaded race category. Has ok-ish UK Win stat: 53W62L, too.
My A-List Base Stake is unchanged @ 25 pts - a winning day today will push it up to 26
Good luck!

Sunday, May 11, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

May 11 Preview
"... I can't be optimistic," I previewed - but David's "moderately good race stats" were born out this time (as I had suspected they could be). It is an especial tribute to his hard work, I feel, when results exceed what seemed like reasonable expectations on paper.
The A-List
**WITH A CHANCE (Best) 6.87 pts - 2ND +13.74 (Nice 'To Place' price, 2/1. The forecast had been 9/4 'To Win!')
MAGNIFIQUE (Value) 0.56 pts To Win, from Bank of 24 (Forecast 12/1) "Big" field reduced to 12, my threshold for doubling stakes - but, alas, I missed it) - WON +1.40 (Bank, now, up 1 to 25)
*BURMUDA 2.06 pts (Forecast 6/1) - 2ND +3.30
**SMOOTH MANOEUVRES Stake doubled (to 4.12 pts) as the "big" field reduced to 12 - WON +2.48
Usual Place Multiple (Place Ds,Ts,4-Fold) totalling 0.72 pts + No Xtras = WON +4.70
No B-List
*1 race was in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (23W43L): came 2ND (**2 were in the 'as near as dammit' category) - WON & 2ND
Worst general race stats: No stand out; Best: ... possibly BERMUDA - 2ND
My A-List Base Stake rises to 26 pts tomorrow (but will drop back if that is a losing day).
A good result! I am well pleased with my aggregate gain of, thanks to David's selections, 25.62 pts, but I hope you did even better!

Sunday, May 11, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

May 11 Preview
With the exception of OFFICIAL SECRET (9Gains14Losses) David's race stats today in my records are good. In view of yesterday's experience, I am weighting them trebly instead of doubly in my computations as regards the A-List. (The B-List gives them no extra weighting; nor, incidentally, do I update my race records on its results, feeling that for these I must rely on the A-List alone.)
The A-List
PENNYCOME QUICK (Best) 27.65 pts (but see below). My UK stats are 50/50 for the win. A negative is that David's race record, here, is the worst of the 4, 34Gains27Losses. If I take David's record on Best results out of the computation, I arrive at an indicated stake of 12.29 pts. I shall go with that.
JACK'S STREET (Value) 12.84 pts To Win, from Bank of 25 (Forecast 11/4) "Big" field. David's best race record of the 4, 80Gains48Losses. UK Win stats quirky-goodish. I think I'll chance the win bet as is, but I am wondering if a split win/place would make more sense.
*NEVADA PRINCESS 2.61 pts. Big field (13). Strongly negative UK Win stats.
*CAPTANPAULI 12.00 pts
I have been staking my Place Multiples to total 1/16th of the aggregate computed single stakes + the cost of Xtras if any. Today, I have decided to increase the proportion to 1/9th: Place Ds,Ts,4-Fold totalling 6.12 pts + Xtra/s if any = ?
B-List
OFFICIAL SECRET 1.01 pts. A positive is my quirky good UK Win stats. I shall do a win bet, therefore, as David's race record here is, in contrast, poor (see intro) -
**SMART PUNCH 0.60 pts. Excellent race stat re David: 10Gains4Losses. But, in contrast, my UK Win srat is 3W9L. I won.t do a win bet but stick to a Place one -
*DOLLIEPARTON 0.46 pts. Excellent race record, David's. My UK Win stats mixed -
DARM'S IMPACT 1.27 pts. Mixed stats.
The usual Multiple (unaffected by the revised basis) totalling bookie's minimum (0.55 pts) + Xtra/s if any = ?
All-Up Multiples totalling 6.49 pts + Xtra/s if any = ?
*3 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (23W43L): (**2 in the 'as near as dammit' category)
Worst general race stats: If I ignore my UK stats, OFFICIAL SECRET; Best: Possibly JACK'S STREET, marginally
My A-List Base Stake is 26 pts (but will drop back if today is a losing day), the B-List's is 14 pts.
Good luck!

Monday, May 12, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

May 12 Results
"David's race stats today in my records are good" I previewed, but in the event non-runners tried to spoil proceedings. However, good fortune smiled, anyway
The A-List
PENNYCOME QUICK (Best) - NO RUN
JACK'S STREET (Value) 12.84 pts To Win, from Bank of 25 (Forecast 11/4) This had David's best race record of the 4 - now, 81Gains48Losses. In chancing the Win bet, I wondered if a split Win/Place investment would make more sense. Instead of a split, I kept the full Win bet & settled for Leg 2 of the Sequential Place Double in the A-List Multiples category - WON +56.50. "Value" Bank increased to 82. (Good start made on the new policy)
*NEVADA PRINCESS 2.61 pts.The "Big" field was reduced to below 13, so I doubled the stake - 2ND +2.09
*CAPTANPAULI 12.00 pts - NO RUN
My Place Multiples turned into a Sequential Double, 4.52 pts at the 1st Leg stage, the 2nd Leg re-chancing the stake with the 1st Leg profit added = WON +10.67
B-List
OFFICIAL SECRET 1.01 pts. I chanced a Win bet -
**SMART PUNCH 0.60 pts - 3RD +1.08
*DOLLIEPARTON 0.46 pts - 4th, I think
**DARM'S IMPACT 1.27 pts - Never in contention
The usual Multiple totalling bookie's minimum (0.55) + Xtras = NET LOSS -0.78
All-Up Multiples totalling bookie's minimum (2.85) + Xtras = NET LOSS -0.46
*3 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (23W43L): 1PL (incl 0W)1L 1NR & **2 in the 'as near as dammit' category - 1PL (I=inc 0W)1L - I hope it is becoming abundantly clear why I avoid Win bets on these! If done at all, the odds taken must be 3/1 or better, I think.
Worst general race stats: If I ignored my quirky-good UK stats, OFFICIAL SECRET/LOST; Best: JACK'S STREET, marginally/WON
My A-List Base Stake remains 26 pts for tomorrow, the B-List stays 14 pts.
Hope you did all right!

Monday, May 12, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

May 13 Preview
David's race stats today in my records are good except only 50/50ish on BABY CASINO (5Gains6Losses). However, my UK Win stats do not frank the chances of wins (but are 50/50ish for that on Baby Casino). They suggest placings are likely, wins more problematic. The A-List
**ROY'S JOY (Best) Capped @ 30.00 pts (from 92.46) - My UK stat for the win is 18W29L -
**POWER EXPRESS (Value) 2.40 pts To Win, from Bank of 82 (Forecast 11/1) My UK stat for the win is 24W40L -
BABY CASINO 4.27 pts. Few races created my stats -
*SPARKING RULER 27.43 pts - My UK win stat here is better: 53W62L. Might be today's best win chance? -
My usual Place Multiples totalling 14.06 pts = ?
No B-List
*1 race in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (23W43L) & **2 in the 'as near as dammit' category - ?PL (incl ?W)?L - I hope it is becoming clear why I avoid Win bets on these! If done, the odds taken should be 3/1 or better, I think.
Worst general race stats: If I ignore Baby Casino, POWER EXPRESS; Best: ROY'S JOY, marginally
My A-List Base Stake is not 26 pts but 30 (I forgot that the level jumps at this stage of progress), the B-List 14 pts.
Good luck!

Tuesday, May 13, 2008  
Anonymous the totopoly kid said...

May 13 Preview
"(My stats) suggest placings are likely, wins more problematic," I previewed, and so it proved. They also indicated that SPARKLING RULER might be today's best actual Win chance (In highlighting this I ignored the fact it was in my "dreaded" category for win bets).
The A-List
**ROY'S JOY (Best) Capped @ 30.00 pts (from 92.46) - 2ND +15.00
**POWER EXPRESS (Value) 2.40 pts To Win, from Bank of 82 (Forecast 11/1) - Could not find enough, I think, in the end: Bank down to 80 (I resisted a temptation to do a Place bet as well, figuring what did happen might.)
BABY CASINO 4.27 pts. Halved the stake as the runners had dropped to 7 (But 3 places paid, I found, to my surprise) - 2ND +0.86
*SPARKING RULER 27.43 pts - WON +2.74
My usual Place Multiples totalling 14.06 pts + No Xtra = LOST -3.61
No B-List
*1 race in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (23W43L) - WON :1PL(incl 1W)0L & **2 in the 'as near as dammit' category - 1PL (incl 0W)1L - If done, the odds taken on these particular Win bets should be 3/1 or better, I think.
Worst general race stats: POWER EXPRESS - LOST; Best: ROY'S JOY - 2ND
My A-List Base Stake is not 26 pts currently but 30 (I remembered late that levels jump places at this precise stage of progress - should have applied the jump when 26 started a couple of days ago - this omission has cost me some winnings, alas), the B-List 14 pts.
Hope you did well!

Tuesday, May 13, 2008  
Anonymous The Totopoly Kid said...

May 14 Preview
My stats don't inspire mouthwatering anticipation today because David's race records are but good without being emphatic, and my UK race stats on their categories no better than OK-ish. Then again, the forecast odds are all on the high side (the lowest 11/4). It's entirely possible these 4 selections could finish unplaced. But David regularly confounds such worst fears with an outstanding tipping performance. It would be imprudent, however, to count on this happening today, I think. I am going to do a Win single on the Value bet and rely on the multiples for a possible result on it and the rest.
The A-List
**SATIN BIRD (Best) 8.64 pts - David's record here is 34Gains26Losses - My UK win stat is 8W14L - No bet likely
REDWOOD PARK (Value) (Forecast 13/2) 13.89 pts To Win, from Bank of 80 -
GOLD CHANT (Forecast 5/1) 24.76 pts - No bet likely
*DANCE WICKED 3.02 pts - David's race record here is 68Gains48Losses. My UK win stat is 23W41L (see also "dreaded" category stat below) - No bet likely
My usual Place Multiples totalling 5.60 pts + Xtra/s if any = ?
No B-List
*1 race in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (23W43L) & **1 in the 'as near as dammit' category - If done, the odds taken on these particular Win bets should be 3/1 or better, I think.
Worst general race stats: DANCE WICKED; Best: perhaps REDWOOD PARK
My A-List Base Stake is 31.
Good luck!

Wednesday, May 14, 2008  
Anonymous The Totopoly Kid said...

May 14 Result
"It's entirely possible these 4 selections could finish unplaced," I previewed. I was out by one. Hey ho. David can't win them all!
The A-List
**SATIN BIRD (Best) 8.64 pts - I had meant not to bet. After Redwood Park lost, I changed my mind and cleared my (small) bookie balance on Satin Bird. Sadly, we were out of luck: she "laboured" at the critical point. LOST -7.10
REDWOOD PARK (Value) (Forecast 13/2) 13.89 pts To Win, from Bank of 80 - Didn't go through with effort and went out of contention at the death. Failure to place somewhat confirms me in my impression that win bets are the right way to go on these "Value" selections. Enough will win over time, I feel sure, to satisfy. C/f Bank reduced to 66.
GOLD CHANT (Forecast 5/1) 24.76 pts - No bet/WON. I rather regretted my decision not to bet ... as one does (after the event). Perhaps I was wrong, here, in that it had at least computed a fulsome stake level, often a good sign on a runner's chances the way I do things. And then again, no: I was uncomfortable with risking significant losses today. My gut feeling was there would be some. (It is unusual for me not to go with my numbers on David's selections, however, whatever the signs good or bad. There will be other, better, days.)
*DANCE WICKED 3.02 pts - No bet/LOST 'The lower the stake, the greater the risk?' Yes, looks a viable personal motto for me to adopt, I 'm happy to say.
My usual Place Multiples totalling 5.60 pts + Xtras = LOST -8.29
No B-List
*1 race in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (23W43L) - LOST & **1 in the 'as near as dammit' category - LOST. If done, the odds taken on these particular Win bets should be 3/1 or better, I reason.
Worst general race stats: DANCE WICKED/LOST; Best: perhaps REDWOOD PARK/LOST (I had felt my stake on GOLD CHANT was artificially high a touch due to quirky-dodgyness about my UK stats on it.)
My A-List Base Stake was 31 today. Tomorrow it will be 30 again.
My loss today was not too damaging. It would have been even less if I had stuck to my Plan A! I hope you minimised losses, if any, successfully!

Wednesday, May 14, 2008  
Anonymous The Totopoly Kid said...

May 15 Preview
Today my stats throw up a confusing picture, which is often bad news. My UK stats are generally un-encouraging, David's record not emphatically positive. Looks to me to be a day to treat with considerable caution.
The A-List
*ROCKY CAMP (Best) 2.96 pts. Race reduced to 7 runners. Win bet not recommended if my UK stats are anything to go by. (David's gains record is only OK at 68G49L.) But, incidentally, I have made a change in my stakes computation in that I skip applying David's record on Best and Value bets as such. (It occurred to me that logically I should go by the race stats, primarily, only optionally on David's overall record.) If I apply his excellent record on Best selections, here, after all (217Gains97Losses) the indicated stake rises to 6.62 pts. But my stats for the win are too bad. Sorry David, I expected to regret skipping this one! -
**EMBRACING (Value) (Forecast 15/8) 5.00 pts To Win, from Bank of 66. Big field. I may skip this bet. too -
**EQUUS 23.27 pts. (Forecast 11/4) Shaky stats based on too few results: UK win stat poor (2W5L). David's good (3G1L). Computed stake almost certainly too high. If I bet it will be at a token level -
CORADORIAN 41.77 pts. My UK stats excellent, David's weak: 15G13L. See what I mean about "confusing picture"? If David's record on this race category were better this would seem to be potentially the most reliable Place bet of the collection -
My usual Place Multiples totalling (quasi capped) 4.56 pts + Xtras if any = ?
B-List
Here we have 2 runners whose stakes computed higher that David's Best!
Usual multiples totalling 0.84 pts + Xtras if any = ?
All-up Multiples totalling (capped) 3.36 + Xtras if any = ?
CYCLONE LARRY 3.05 pts Big field -
**NOTHIN LEIKA BET 3.55 pts (Forecast 5/2) -
**TRIESTINO 0.39 pts (Forecast 5/1) -
**GIRL'S JEUNEY 0.58 pts (Forecast 15/8) Big field -
*1 race in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (23W43L) - LOST & **5 in the 'as near as dammit' category. If done, the odds taken on these particular Win bets should be 3/1 or better, I reason.
Worst general race stats: Dunno; Best: CORIDORIAN (CYCLONE LARRY catches my eye on stats)
My A-List Base Stake Is 30. B-List 14.
Good luck (said with feeling)!

Thursday, May 15, 2008  
Anonymous The Totopoly Kid said...

May 16 Preview
Forecasting is nothing more than about how things could go on to be, "if ...". My stats do that and no more. A good tip is but a forecast on what could be which indeed goes on to be. David's tips are usually good, I've found. But he cannot do equally well, in terms of results, on all race categories. Nobody could. My stats are necessarily gloomy on some of his selections (that is their usefulness) but it probably means that the prices will be good on those. The only reaction I commonly have to these gloomy stats is to invest less on them than I do on the ones my stats endorse. I only discount them if my cash-flow forces economies on me.
The A-List
**SLICK NICK (Best) 11.46 pts. My negative UK win stat is 24W40L. David's decent record here is 86Gains62Losses -
**MEGA STAR MILLY (Value) (Forecast 8/1) 1.09 pts To Win, from Bank of 69. Big field. My negative UK win stat is 5W11L -
*ORPEN DENI 20.36 pts. David's good record here is 115Gains57Losses -
**DANCE GIRL DANCE 9.39 pts. My UK wins stat here is the same as for Mega Star Milly -
My usual Place Multiples totalling 4.70 pts + Xtras if any = ?
B-List
**CLOSE THE DOOR 0.11 pts (Forecast 11/1) My negative UK win stat is 23W41 (also it is in the "dreaded" category below) -
Tiny stakes also on the others except for
SHE'S A MOUNTAIN 6.60 pts. David's excellent record on this race category is 61Gains21Losses - WON +3.96
Usual multiples totalling 0.83 pts + Xtras if any = ?
All-up Multiples (but only 7-Leg) totalling my bookie's minimum of 2.85 pts + Xtras if any = ?
*2 races (incl CLOSE THE DOOR) in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (23W43L) & **3 in the 'as near as dammit' category.
Worst general race stats: possibly ST MARTIN'S LANE (judged on almost no stats, however); Best: SHE'S A MOUNTAIN
My A-List Base Stake Is 31. B-List 14.
Good luck!

Friday, May 16, 2008  
Anonymous The Totopoly Kid said...

May 16 Results
I commonly invest less on on selections with "gloomy" stats, I previewed. Well, the policy costs money but also saves some. It caused a relatively low stake on the winner Slick Nick, a tiny one on Close The Door; both arguably "costing" me - whilst the 3 bets that lost were 3 of today's 4 lowest stakes, arguably, "saving" me money.
The A-List
**SLICK NICK (Best) 11.46 pts. My negative UK win stat is 24W40L. David's decent record here is 86Gains62Losses - WON +3.44
**MEGA STAR MILLY (Value) (Forecast 8/1) 1.09 pts To Win, from Bank of 69. Big field. My negative UK win stat is 5W11L - LOST. Bank reduced to 68. (Unplaced, note: once again vindicating the move to win bets on this tip category.)
*ORPEN DENI 20.36 pts. David's good record here is 115Gains57Losses - WON +12.22
**DANCE GIRL DANCE 9.39 pts. My UK wins stat here is the same as for Mega Star Milly - 3RD +3.76 (David's record on this category is now 4Gains2Losses.)
My usual Place Multiples totalling 4.70 pts + Xtra = NET GAIN +0.40 pts
B-List
**CLOSE THE DOOR 0.11 pts (Forecast 11/1) My negative UK win stat is 23W41 (also it is in the "dreaded" category below) - WON +0.09
Tiny stakes also on the others (LOST -0.72 pts) except for
SHE'S A MOUNTAIN 6.60 pts. David's excellent record on this race category is 61Gains21Losses - 2ND +3.96
Usual multiples totalling 0.83 pts + Xtra = NET LOSS -0.56
All-up Multiples (but only 7-Leg) totalling my bookie's minimum of 2.85 pts + Xtra = NET LOSS -1.88
*2 races (ORPEN DENI/WON & CLOSE THE DOOR/WON) in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (23W43L); & **3 in the 'as near as dammit' category - 2PL (incl. 1W)1L.
Worst general race stats: possibly ST MARTIN'S LANE/LOST (judged on almost no stats, however); Best: SHE'S A MOUNTAIN/2ND
My A-List Base Stake for tomorrow Is 31 pts. B-List 14.
My gain, thanks to David's selections, was just under a welcome 20 pts. I hope you did even better!

Friday, May 16, 2008  
Anonymous The Totopoly Kid said...

May 16 Preview
My stakes have computed at modest levels. It is hard to think, however, the selections will not do well considering David's good form and the fact there is a lot of racing today to choose from.
The A-List
MITANNI (Best) 5.32 pts. My negative UK win stat is 14W21L. David's decent record here is 52Gains32Losses - 3RD +Nil (I was too late to bet) Led, then got swamped and nearly run out of 3rd.
WALKING OR DANCING (Value) (Forecast 9/1) Speculative *6.12 pts To Win, from Bank of 62. (Few races created my stats) *This may prove an over-bet -
*SOMETHING ANYTHING 5.64 pts. Big field. David's good record here is 81Gains48Losses -
**TAT TAT JET 9.25 pts. 7 runners - 3RD +0.93 (3rd place paid)
Missed my usual Place Multiples until only Place Double available totalling 0.70 pts + Xtras if any = ?
B-List
**MUSIC LOVER - 2ND +0.28
*ROYAL ROCK - WON +Nil (Too late to bet)
**O'KEARNE 4.57 pts My negative UK win stat is 12W23 -
**NEW SPICE 0.30 pts. Big field -
Too late for my usual multiples until only Place single available totalling 0.70 = ?
Too late for my usual all-up Multiples until only Place Treble available totalling 0.35 pts + Xtras if any = ?
*2 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (23W43L) & **4 in the 'as near as dammit' category.
Worst general race stats: NEW SPICE; Best: WALKING OR DANCING (based on very limited stats)
My A-List Base Stake Is 31. B-List 14.
Good luck!

Saturday, May 17, 2008  
Anonymous The Totopoly Kid said...

May 17 Results
Mixed fortune for me today as I missed a couple of winning bets due to being late. I was well pleased with the win by WALKING OR DANCING. (If a question, the answer is 'dancing' - after the result.)
The A-List
MITANNI (Best) 5.32 pts intended - 3RD +Nil (I was too late to bet) Led, then swamped; it nearly got run out of 3rd place.
WALKING OR DANCING (Value) (Forecast 9/1) 6.12 pts To Win, from Bank of 62 - Today's highlight (I had feared this was an over-bet): WON +24.48 Bank up to 86, now
*SOMETHING ANYTHING 5.64 pts. Big field -
**TAT TAT JET 9.25 pts. 7 runners - 3RD +0.93 (paid 3rd place)
Missed my usual Place Multiples until only Place Double available totalling 0.70 pts + no Xtra = LOST -0.70
B-List
**MUSIC LOVER 0.40 pts - 2ND +0.28
*ROYAL ROCK 1.03 pts intended - WON +Nil (Too late to bet)
**O'KEARNE 4.57 pts -
**NEW SPICE 0.30 pts. Big field -
Too late for my usual multiples until only Place single available totalling 0.70 + no Xtra = LOST -0.70
Too late for my usual all-up Multiples until only Place Treble available totalling 0.35 pts + Xtra = LOST -0.70
*2 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) - 1PL (incl. 1W)1L & **4 in the 'as near as dammit' category - 2PL (incl. 0W)2L i.e., 1 outright winner from 6 overall.
Worst general race stats: NEW SPICE/LOST; Best: WALKING OR DANCING/WON (based on very limited stats)
My A-List Base Stake Is 31 (a winning day tomorrow will move it to 32 the day after). B-List 14 (a winning day today would have moved it to 15 tomorrow).
Despite the missed bets, I made a gain of 13 pts. I hope you did all right, too!

Saturday, May 17, 2008  
Anonymous The Totopoly Kid said...

May 16 Preview
Unusually mixed bag of computed stakes, today. Hopefully, the results won't be, but I have to have doubts. It tends to suggest today is one for few, if any, win bets. (Famous last words?)
The A-List
**ZUPAONE (Best) 9.64 pts. My negative UK win stat is 24W40L. David's decent record here is 87Gains62Losses -
**JUERGA (Value) (Forecast 5/2) 4.13 pts To Win, from Bank of 86. Big field. My negative UK win stat is 18W29L, though -
*CLAY MAN 37.56 pts. David's good record here is 90Gains45Losses -
**WIT AND WISDOM 11.86 pts Negative and positive stats are the same as for Zupaone -
My usual Place Multiples totalling 3.95 pts + Xtra/s if any = ?
B-List
*HAYILING SKY 0.53 pts (Forecast 15/2) Big field -
**RUBY FRISCO 0.49 pts (Forecast 13/1) -
BONINDI 2.24 pts (Forecast 6/1) Big field. Excellent UK stats (but David's is an, so far, unviable15Gains13Losses) -
TRUE LASER 1.34 pts (Forecast 5/1) -
My usual multiples totalling my bookie's minimum (0.55) + Xtra/s if any = ?
My usual 7-Leg Multiples totalling bookie's minimum (2.85) + Xtra/s if any = ?
*2 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (23W43L) & **4 in the 'as near as dammit' category.
Worst general race stats: possibly JUERGA; Best: possibly TRUE LASER in that they are uniformly 50/50-ish
My A-List Base Stake Is 31. B-List 14.
Good luck!

Sunday, May 18, 2008  
Anonymous The Totopoly Kid said...

May 18 Results
"(An u)nusually mixed bag of computed stakes ... suggests (that) today is one for few, if any, win bets," I previewed, and, this time, results confirmed my impression as sound. David often does much better than my previews predict, but I do think the stats on which these previews are founded are worth heeding for those occasions, like today's, when he hasn't. The only thing that can cheer you up on a bad day is the thought that, but for caution, it could have been much worse. A good day remains good despite the more you didn't win for caution.
The A-List
**ZUPAONE (Best) 9.64 pts - 4th. Probably unlucky. Did not get a clear run late on
**JUERGA (Value) (Forecast 5/2) 4.13 pts To Win, from Bank of 86. Big field - Never in contention. Bank reduced to 82.
*CLAY MAN Originally 37.56 pts. but I cut it (to 23.45) - 4th
**WIT AND WISDOM 11.86 pts - 3RD +3.56 The winner as a big price had caught my eye before the race began because it's name was my late father's Christian names in reverse order! I toyed with putting a couple of points on it to win, for luck, but I had emptied my bookie account by then and couldn't (without putting in fresh funds).
My usual Place Multiples totalling 3.95 pts + Xtras = NET LOSS -6.83
B-List
*HAYILING SKY 0.53 pts (Forecast 15/2) Big field - Well beaten
**RUBY FRISCO 0.49 pts (Forecast 13/1) - Never in contention
BONINDI 2.24 pts (Forecast 6/1) Big field -
TRUE LASER 1.34 pts (Forecast 5/1) Also chanced a Win bet (2.86) -
My usual multiples totalling my bookie's minimum (0.55) + Xtras = LOST -1.20
My usual 7-Leg Multiples totalling bookie's minimum (2.85) + Xtras = NET LOSS -6.65
*2 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) - 2 x LOST & **4 in the 'as near as dammit' category - 1 x PL (incl. 0 x W) 3 x L. Overall no outright winner from 6. Win bets best avoided on these, do you agree yet?
Worst general race stats: possibly JUERGA/LOST; Best: possibly TRUE LASER/LOST
My A-List Base Stake remains 31. B-List unchanged too at 14.
I hope you did not lose too much!

Sunday, May 18, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

May 19 Preview
My stakes have computed moderately low.
The A-List
FUSELAGE (Best) 6.01 pts. Big field. David's record in this category is modest: 49Gains39Losses. My UK win stat is only OK: 11W15L -
*CANHEDANCE (Value) (Forecast 3/1) 3.57 pts To Win, from Bank of 82. Big field. David's record: 107Gains71Losses. My UK win stat 50/50-ish -
TIME SHIFT 3.10 pts -
*FUJI MOJO 2.86 pts. Big field. David's record the same as Canhedance -
I will just do a Place accumulator 1.73 pts
No B-List
*2 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) & **None in the 'as near as dammit' category
Worst general race stats: TIME SHIFT; Best: FUSELAGE
My A-List Base Stake Is 31

Monday, May 19, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

May 19 Results
Here, "Moderately low" stakes = moderately high risk.
The A-List
FUSELAGE (Best) 6.01 pts. Big field. David's record in this category was modest: 49Gains40Losses, now -
*CANHEDANCE (Value) (Forecast 3/1) 3.57 pts To Win, from Bank of 82. Big field. David's record: 107Gains72Losses, now - Bank reduced to 78, now.
TIME SHIFT 3.10 pts - 2ND +0.93
*FUJI MOJO 2.86 pts. Big field - 2ND +2.00
Place accumulator 2.23 pts (tiny Ds & Ts added) + Xtra = NET LOSS -3.95
No B-List
*2 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) 1 x PL (incl. 0W) 1 x Lost & **None in the 'as near as dammit' category
Worst general race stats: TIME SHIFT/2nd (David's record was 6Gains6Losses); Best: FUSELAGE/Lost
My A-List Base Stake remains 31
Hope you minimized loss!

Monday, May 19, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

May 20 Preview
My stakes have computed mixedly.
The A-List
**MASHUDU (Best) 9.61 pts. David's record in this category is quite good: 105Gains72Losses. My UK win stat is poor: 24W40L -
*YARRABIN CHARM (Value) (Forecast 11/4) 3.69 pts To Win, from Bank of 78. David's record: 69Gains49Losses. My UK win stats are both poor (each about 1 win per 3 backed tips) -
RUSTIC ROSSA (Forecast 5/4) Capped at 31.00 pts (from 163.82) David's record is very good: 70Gains29Losses. My UK win stat moderate: 62W88L -
MUSCLE UP 4.70 pts. David's record is 53Gains32Losses -
All Up Place accumulator 6.10 pts + Xtras if any = ?
Ds&Ts totalling 10.84 + Xtras if any = ?
No B-List
*1 race in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) & **1 in the 'as near as dammit' category. Unfortunately, these are the Value (ignored) & Best bets respectively.
Worst general race stats: YARRABIN CHARM; Best: RUSTIC ROSSA
My A-List Base Stake Is 31 and will go down to 30 if today is a losing one
Good luck!

Tuesday, May 20, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

May 20 Preview
My stakes had computed "mixedly" and, this time, mixed results was the outcome.
The A-List
**MASHUDU (Best) 9.61 pts - 3RD, +0.38, disappointingly low; but we were lucky that it came out best in the photo (ran free and faded from leading near the end)
*YARRABIN CHARM (Value) (Forecast 11/4) 3.69 pts To Win, from Bank of 78 - WON +24.98, pleasingly (well done, David!), bucking the adverse statistical trend for the "dreaded" category. Bank up to 103, now (growing nicely so far)
RUSTIC ROSSA (Forecast 5/4) Capped at 31.00 pts (from 163.82) - The top disappointment (found nothing). I had toyed with Capping at 14 pts instead. Pity I didn't. Never mind. Plenty of these big-staked 'rank and file' selections have succeeded in the past.
MUSCLE UP 4.70 pts - Never in contention
All Up Place accumulator 6.10 pts + Xtra = LOSS -8.10
Ds&Ts totalling 10.84 + Xtra = NET LOSS -8.92
No B-List
*1 race in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) - WON & **1 in the 'as near as dammit' category - 3RD. These were the Value (fortunately ignored) & Best bets respectively.
Worst general race stats: YARRABIN CHARM/OOPS; Best: RUSTIC ROSSA/DOUBLY OOPS
My A-List Base Stake goes down to 30 tomorrow
I expect you did better than I did!

Tuesday, May 20, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

Wednesday, May 21, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

May 21 Preview
My stakes have computed higher than for some time. This should mean, on paper, better prospects than has been the case lately. However, quite a high proportion of the lists are in bet categories having adverse UK win stats.
The A-List
**PRINCESS SHANNA (Best) 23.81 pts (Forecast 5/4) My stats are not all that good, actually. The stake is bumped up by the short odds & the triple weighting accorded to David's (modest) record, here: 15Gains11Losses. My negative UK win stat is 12W23L. I may shave 1/3rd off the stake @ 15.87 -
**LITTLE ADAM (Value) (Forecast 2/1) 13.59 pts To Win, from Bank of 103. My negative UK win stat is the same as for Princess Shanna - 2ND Didn't quite make it, the winner hung on. Good run. Bank down to 89. (Bit of luck!!! Due to an oversight I missed it!!! ZERO LOSS)
*GLENBAWN STAR (Forecast 5/2) 12.45 pts -
*HINDSIGHT 5.26 pts - Last to 2nd; made up 10+ lengths. +1.05
Unual Multi of Ds&Ts totalling 1.04 + 4-Place accum. for *1.04 (Error: should have been *0.57) + Xtra/s if any = ?
B-List
MALIBU DOLL 5.63 pts -
**AFGHANI (Forecast 4/1) 1.05 pts. Negative UK win stat: 8W14L -
GILDED BOOTS (Forecast 13/2) 1.90 pts -
**FRAMBOISE (Forecast 11.1) 0.61 pts -
Usual Ds&Ts totalling 6.14 + 4-Fold Place Accum. at *6.12 (Error: should have been *3.44)
Near-All Up Place accumulators (7-Legs x 2) totalling 1.31 each + Xtra/s if any = ?
*2 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L). Plus **4 in the 'as near as dammit' category. (The Best and Value bets, today, are included amongst these.)
Worst general race stats: possibly GLENBAWN STAR; Best: No stand out
My A-List Base Stake is 30 today, B-List 14 pts.
Good luck!

Wednesday, May 21, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

Wednesday, May 21, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

May 21 Results
" ... higher (computed stakes) than for some time ... should mean ... better prospects than (lately)," I previewed. In the event it was a win bet I neglected to make which enabled me to end the day in profit.
The A-List
**PRINCESS SHAWNA (Best) Reduced to 15.87 (from 23.81) pts (Forecast 5/4) - WON +4.76
**LITTLE ADAM (Value) (Forecast 2/1) 13.59 pts To Win, from Bank of 103 - 2ND Didn't quite make it (the winner hung on). Good run. Bank down to 89. (Bit of luck!!! I thought I had bet, but hadn't.) ZERO LOSS
*GLENBAWN STAR (Forecast 5/2) 12.45 pts - 3RD +8.72
*HINDSIGHT 5.26 pts - Last to 2nd; made up 10+ lengths. 2ND +1.05
Unual Multi of Ds&Ts totalling 6.14 + 4-Place accum. for *6.12 (Error: should have been *3.44) + No Xtra = WON +17.25
B-List
MALIBU DOLL 5.63 pts -
**AFGHANI (Forecast 4/1) 1.05 pts. Negative UK win stat: 8W14L -
GILDED BOOTS (Forecast 13/2) 1.90 pts -
**FRAMBOISE (Forecast 11.1) 0.61 pts -
Usual Ds&Ts totalling 1.04 + 4-Fold Place Accum. at 1.02 (Error: should have been *0.57) + Xtras = LOST -3.84
Near-All Up Place accumulators (7-Legs x 2) totalling 1.31 each + Xtra/s = LOST -5.24
*2 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) - BOTH PLACED. Plus **4 in the 'as near as dammit' category - 2PL (incl. 1W)2L. (The Best and Value bets, today, were in this section.)
Worst general race stats: GLENBAWN STAR/3RD; Best: (Preview correction) MALIBU DOLL/LOST.
My A-List Base Stake is 31 tomorrow, B-List 14 pts.
I hope you did OK!

Wednesday, May 21, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

May 22 Preview
A couple of big fields, not very short forecast odds, one stat based on very few races. My stakes have computed mixedly. If David is on form, the returns could be good - but one cannot be confident. Medium expectations, perhaps, sums it up.
The A-List
NOT A COPY (Best) 18.71 pts (Forecast 5/2) Big field. David's record, here, is good: 116Gains57Losses. My somewhat negative UK win stat is 53W74L -
**PROTESTA (Value) (Forecast 5/2) 3.54 pts To Win, from Bank of 89. Big field. My negative UK win stat is 18W29L. David's is unviable so far: 49Gains40Losses -
HEARTBREAK PASS (Forecast 7/2) 53.14 pts. Thin stats e.g., David's 3Gains0Losses. My computed stake is too big, I think. I may halve it or more -
*FATHER DEX 5.27 pts (Forecast 5/1) -
Unual Multi of Ds&Ts totalling 8.96 + 4-Place accum. for 5.04 + Xtra/s if any = ?
No B-List
*1 race in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L). Plus **1 in the 'as near as dammit' category.
Worst general race stats: FATHER DEX; Best: NOT A COPY
My A-List Base Stake is 31 today.
Good luck!

Thursday, May 22, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

May 22 Results
"My stakes ... computed mixedly. If David is on form, the returns could be good," I previewed. A near 40 pts gain overall, despite 2 reverses from 4 races, has to confirm the preview, this time, as 'fair comment.' Today was one of those occasions, by no means rare, when my stake computations threw up a best/value bet different from the nominated.
The A-List
NOT A COPY (Best) 18.71 pts (Forecast 5/2) Big field - 3RD, lacking racing room at the finish (interference vainly alleged at a Stewards' Enquiry) +3.74.
David's excellent record on Best bets is now 223Gains99Losses, clearly viable for Place bets, I would think.
**PROTESTA (Value) (Forecast 5/2) 3.54 pts To Win, from Bank of 89. Big field - 3RD +Nil. Win Bank reduced to 85. (In future, if my win stats are indifferent & the field is "big" - i.e., more than 12, I may do a Place bet on these instead of a Win bet.)
David's record on A-List Value bets (including those from when he had no B-List) is now 173Gains146Losses which, though creditable, I would guess is still unviable as regards Place Only bets.
HEARTBREAK PASS (Forecast 7/2) Stake reduced to 27.39 from 53.14. Thin stats e.g., David's 3Gains0Losses - 3RD +30.13 David has a 100% record from 4 selections, now, in this rare caregory (9 forecast under 13/1 of which 6 are forecast below 8/1).
*FATHER DEX 5.27 pts (Forecast 5/1)-
Usual Multi of Ds&Ts totalling 8.96 + 4-Place accum. for 5.04 + Xtras = NET GAIN +14.63
No B-List
*1 race in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) - LOST. Plus **1 in the 'as near as dammit' category - 3RD Once again, no winner as such, here.
Worst general race stats: FATHER DEX/LOST; Best: NOT A COPY/3RD (Hearbreak Pass was not considered due to meagre stats)
My A-List Base Stake remains 31.
Hope you did well!

Thursday, May 22, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

Friday, May 23, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

May 23 Preview (apologies for the late posting)
I don't know what to expect, today. The doubt is an negative of itself, I guess.
The A-List
*CAFE BAR (Best) 14.91 pts (Forecast 6/4) - WON +7.46
**COME IN SPANNER (Value) (Forecast 9/2) 1.53 pts To Win, from Bank of 85. My negative UK win stat is 3W9L - 3RD +Nil. 3 lengths back best of the rest. Bank now 83
THE BOXER (Forecast 10/9) Capped at 31 pts (from 86.41) -
**WEST GINDIAN 1.23 pts. Meagre stats. David's record is poor: now 8Gains15Losses. My UK ones (based on only 13 races) are 50/50 -
Usual Multi of Ds&Ts totalling 11.54 + 4-Place accum. for 6.50 + Xtras = NET LOSS ?
B-List
REAL WORLD 5.50 pts -
**DON HERNANDO 4.22 pts. Negative UK win stat: 12W23L -
CHRYSOPELIA 1.77 pts -
**FLUSHING MEADOWS 1.43 pts -
Usual Ds&Ts totalling 1.45 + 4-Fold Place Accum. at 0.81 + Xtra/s if any = ?
Near-All Up Place accumulator (7-Leg) totalling 2.39 + Xtra/s = ?
*1 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) - WON. Plus **4 in the 'as near as dammit' category
Worst general race stats: WEST GINDIAN/LOST; Best: THE BOXER/LOST.
My A-List Base Stake 31 tomorrow, B-List 14 pts.
Good luck!

Friday, May 23, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

May 23 Results
The B-List out performed The A-List today. Not a complete surprise as one or two of its stakes worked out bigger than a couple in the A-List, despite the latter having three times the weighting suggested by David's results records.
*CAFE BAR (Best) 14.9l pts (Forecast 6/4) - WON +7.46
**COME IN SPANNER (Value) (Forecast 9/2) 1.53 pts To Win, from Bank of 85. My negative UK win stat is 3W9L - 3RD +Nil. 3 lengths back best of the rest. Bank now 83
THE BOXER (Forecast 10/9) Capped at 31 pts (from 86.41) -
**WEST GINDIAN 1.23 pts. Meagre stats. David's record is poor: now 8Gains15Losses. My UK ones (based on only 13 races) are 50/50 -
Usual Multi of Ds&Ts totalling 11.54 + 4-Place accum. for 6.50 + Xtras = NET LOSS -18.19
B-List
REAL WORLD 5.50 pts - 2ND Lost head to head at the end +5.50
**DON HERNANDO 4.22 pts. Negative UK win stat: 12W23L - WON +2.16
CHRYSOPELIA 1.77 pts -
**FLUSHING MEADOWS 1.43 pts - 3RD +1.43
Usual Ds&Ts totalling 1.45 + 4-Fold Place Accum. at 0.81 + Xtra = +2.27
Near-All Up Place accumulator (7-Leg) totalling 2.39 + Xtras = NET LOSS -2.39
*1 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) - WON. Plus **4 in the 'as near as dammit' category - 2 outright wins from 5 is roughly in line with expectation (1 win every 3 selections on average).
Worst general race stats: WEST GINDIAN/LOST; Best: THE BOXER/LOST.
My A-List Base Stake remains at 31, B-List remains at 14 pts.
I came out 37 pts down. Hope you did much better than that!

Friday, May 23, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

May 24 Preview (apologies for the late posting)
I am always extra hopeful when I see a big number of races that David has selected from. Today I have doubled the weighting I give to his record on B-List selections. 3 of the 4 selections in the A-List have negatives from my UK race stats, unfortunately. Notionally, I feel with negative UK win stats that a runner in question is competing for one of 2 rather than 3 places. But I have gone with my numbers and hope for the best.
The A-List
INSISTENCE (Best) (Forecast 9/10) Capped at 70.07 pts (from 843.29!) - WON +14.01
*RAPID JACKO (Value) (Forecast 9/2) 4.24 pts To Win from Bank of 83. My UK win stats are both negatives. I ought to be going Place Only, really, but I'll chance the win bet -
**DISMISSAL 12.67 pts. Negative UK stat 24W40L -
**SECTAGONAL 2.94 pts. Same negative as for Dismissal - 3RD +2.65
Usual Multi of Ds&Ts totalling (but higher stakes than usual due to Insistence) 30.98 + 4-Place accum. for 13.44 (missed 1st Leg) + Xtra/s =
B-List
**COCKTAIL SUPREME 1.39 pts - (Missed bet) -NIL
HAPPY BANKER 12.80 pts -
LIVELY BIRD 3.69 pts -
*MASTER PICKLES 5.91 pts -
Double totalling 2.40 on final 2 runners (+ Missed 4-Fold Place Accum.) + Xtra/s if any = ?
Near-All Up Place accumulator (entered at 6-Legs stage) totalling 9.24 + Xtra/s = ?
*2 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L). Plus **3 in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright win, on average, out of every 3 selections)
Worst general race stats: RAPID JACKO; Best: INSISTENCE/WON.
My A-List Base Stake is still 31, B-List still 14 pts.
Good luck!

Saturday, May 24, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

May 24 Results
Because I have learned to count on David's selections to the end of his lists, today I was able to keep my nerve, remain faithful to my use of Xtras, rely on a bit of luck to help out and, despite middle-order bets going down, it paid off in a gain of just under 58 pts.
The A-List
INSISTENCE (Best) (Forecast 9/10) Capped at 70.07 pts (from 843.29!) - WON +14.01
*RAPID JACKO (Value) (Forecast 9/2) 4.24 pts To Win from Bank of 83. My UK win stats are both negatives. I ought to have gone Place Only, really, but chanced the win bet - 3RD -4.24. Bank down to 79. (Amongst the Xtra bets, however, was a combined one of 19.45 to place.)
**DISMISSAL 12.67 pts. Negative UK stat 24W40L -
**SECTAGONAL 2.94 pts. Same negative as for Dismissal - 3RD +2.65
Usual Multi of Ds&Ts totalling (but higher stakes than usual due to Insistence) 30.98 + 4-Place accum. for 13.44 (missed 1st Leg) + Xtras = NET GAIN +26.83
B-List
**COCKTAIL SUPREME 1.39 pts - (Missed bet) -NIL
HAPPY BANKER 12.80 pts -
LIVELY BIRD 3.69 pts - WON +2.97
*MASTER PICKLES 5.91 pts - 3RD +2.36
Double totalling 2.40 on final 2 runners = WON +3.65
Near-All Up Place accumulator (entered at 6-Legs "Xtras" stage) totalling 9.24 + futher Xtra (Treble) = NET GAIN +35.08
*2 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) - BOTH PLACED. Plus **3 in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright win on average out of every 3 selections) - 1 PL 2 LOST. Note: No outright winner in either category.
Worst general race stats: RAPID JACKO/3RD; Best: INSISTENCE/WON.
My A-List Base Stake remains 31 (if tomorrow is a winning day it will move up to 32 the day after), B-List remains14 pts.
Hope you did well, too!

Saturday, May 24, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

May 25 Preview
My stats seem to divide today's selections in two: big and standard fields, big and small stakes.
The A-List
*JUERGA (Best) (Forecast 5/4) 18.40 pts. In "dreaded" category for win bets -
**HIGH PAPA (Value) (Forecast 12/1) 2.09 pts To Win from Bank of 79. Big field. One UK win stat a negative 5W11L. I'll chance the win bet -
**SMART PUNCH (Forecast 6/1) 1.69 pts. Big field. David's race record an all right 89Gains64Losses -
CALL TO ORDER (Forecast 4/9!) Capped at 31 pts (from 437.01) -
Usual Multi of Ds&Ts at higher stakes than usual due to Call To Order totalling a (see below) capped 31.00 (from 51.02) + 4-Fold accum. for 28.70 + Xtra/s if any =
(Re above) I have long held (but not continuously applied) that the proper attitude towards multiple bets is to think of them as single bets. In other words, you should be prepared to lose on the grouped horses as much as you would be prepared to lose on one: the multiple is just a single bet by another name? Today, at the capped ceiling for a single, the multiple bet conforms to this view.
*1 race in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L). Plus **2 in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections)
Worst general race stats: SMART PUCH; Best: CALL TO ORDER.
My A-List Base Stake is 31.
Good luck!

Sunday, May 25, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

Sunday, May 25, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

May 25 Results
The animals continued to come in two by two: Two singles gains/two singles losses; Singles success/multiples failure; Confidence/Loss of (at Race 4). Confidence, indeed, to the end would have helped but I economized on the last race. As an Xtra, I had made it the 2nd leg of a "sequential double" and on this occasion I reinvested only the profit from the 1st leg. No regrets, I'd an uneasy feeling that Juerga might let us down and enough deficit had accrued by then without that happening as well. In the event, it came 3rd but could easily have lost, making up ground from well back.
I am kind of left with a feeling that today we had 2 B-Listers in the A-List! But I feel sure David would have split them that way were that the case.
The A-List
*JUERGA (Best) (Forecast 5/4) 18.40 pts - 3RD +20.24
**HIGH PAPA (Value) (Forecast 12/1) 4.18 pts To Win (Stake doubled as Big field had reduced to 12) - Bank reduced to 75
**SMART PUNCH (Forecast 6/1) 1.69 pts. Big field -
CALL TO ORDER (Forecast 4/9!) Capped at 31 pts (from 437.01) - 2ND +3.10
Usual Multi of Ds&Ts at higher stakes than usual due to Call To Order totalling a capped 31.00 (from 51.02) + 4-Fold accum. for 28.70 + Xtras = NET LOSSES respectively -25.35 and (the principle victim of the caution mentioned above) -47.28
*1 race in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) - 3RD. Plus **2 in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - BOTH LOST
Worst general race stats: SMART PUCH/LOST; Best: CALL TO ORDER/2ND.
My A-List Base Stake is unchanged at 31 for tomorrow. I now need two consecutive winning days for it to increase to 32. If tomorrow is a losing day it will drop to 30 the day after.
Hope you did better than I did!

Sunday, May 25, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

May 26 Preview (apologies for late posting)
I yearn all the time for David's better records and my better UK win stats to coincide. I feel I can safely say that when they do, generally, we score. Today, they coincide on MEDIA PLANET. The forecast odds, however, are 25/1, but this looks to be a 'way out' estimate to judge from its being nominated favourite and 2nd favourite by the RadioTab tipsters. We shall see.
The A-List
MAROZIA (Best) (Forecast 9/10) Capped at 31 pts (from 86.69). Funnily enough, this category is not one of David's better records: now up to 17Gains13Losses (3 runners forecast under 13/1, all of them below 8/1). Its 'inherent predictive difficulty' is greater than it would seem, I hazard. This one only placed. - 3RD +Nil. Disappointing return at 0.04 of stake. (I missed it, actually, being late. Lucky for me the damage was minimal.)
MEDIA PLANET (Value) (Forecast 25/1) Capped to win at B-List Base Stake of 14 pts (from 20.77) from bank of 75. Big field -
*SHEIKH IT UP (Forecast 11/4) 26.47 pts -
**SMOTHER (Forecast 12/1) 0.81 pts Big field -
Multi of Ds+T (starting at the 1st Xtra stage) totalling 14.97 pts + 3-Fold accum totalling 8.42 pts + Xtras = ?
*1 race in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L). Plus **1 in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) -
Worst general race stats: SMOTHER; Best: MEDIA PLANET (ignoring the 25/1 forecast as a negative).
My A-List Base Stake is unchanged at 31. If today is a losing day it will drop to 30 tomorrow.
Good luck!

Monday, May 26, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

May 26 Results
A blow out. Media Planet might have prevented this (if it won), but, seemingly, left its challenge slightly too late (photo 4th). That's 'gambling,' I guess, but it has cleaned me out of reddies for the moment. With the benefit of hindsight, I find myself thinking "Just a minute: skinny forecast price of the best selection, dangerously high looking forecast odds of, at best, 11/4, at worst 25/1: should these all have spelled potential trouble? On balance, possibly so. I think I was deflected because I was fairly sure Media Planet would succeed in being placed, and was liable to win. Even so, forecast odds that high are a signal that the 'form is not necessarily in the book' as regards a runner. I am usually suspicious of runners that go off vastly shorter than their forecast odds. But, today, I wasn't.
The A-List
MAROZIA (Best) (Forecast 9/10) Capped at 31 pts (from 86.69). Funnily enough, this category (3 runners forecast under 13/1, all of them below 8/1) is not one of David's better records: now up to 17Gains13Losses. Its 'inherent predictive difficulty' is greater than it would seem, I hazard (possibly because can run tactically as are some actual 3-runner races?) - 3RD +Nil. Luckily, I missed only a disappointing return (0.04 of 31 = +1.24).
MEDIA PLANET (Value) (Forecast 25/1) Capped to win at B-List Base Stake of 14 pts (from 20.77) from bank of 75. More hinged on it placing for the multiple Xtras, being a single as the last of these - Bank down to 61
*SHEIKH IT UP (Forecast 11/4) 26.47 pts - Made gound, then ... .
**SMOTHER (Forecast 12/1) 0.81 pts Big field -
Multi of Ds+T (starting at the 1st Xtra stage) totalling 14.97 pts + 3-Fold accum totalling 8.42 pts + Xtras = LOST -53.85 (Hum. Excessive.)
*1 race in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' race category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) - LOST. Plus **1 in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - LOST
Worst general race stats: SMOTHER/LOST; Best: MEDIA PLANET/LOST
My A-List Base Stake drops to 30 tomorrow (having first hit 31 on 13th May). The thing about Place betting is that bank growth can only be slow because of the huge setback proportionally caused by every reverse. You have to bet enough each time to make worthwhile gains, but have to swallow the defeats like today's along the way. I have found that in the longer term David's selections pay.
Hope you minimized your damage (if any)!

Monday, May 26, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

May 27 Preview
I've had a look at my immediate financial commitments and think I cannot move funds into a risk situation. So, inevitably, I have to pass on benefiting from even likely punting gains.
I find I have not the heart to process the selections today. Apologies.
I expect to be back in a few days if not before.
Good luck!

Tuesday, May 27, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

May 28 Preview
I am not betting at the moment (so have worked out no stakes) but I have gone through my stats on today's selections and, golly, they are somewhat unpromising. Every runner is in either my "dreaded" or "near as dammit" category. 6 big fields (often fraught with extra danger). 2 x 10/1s forecast odds and 1 x 8/1. On the positive side, David's records on most is respectably good, in one case excellent. If he has chosen well, you might be in for a good day. But I am happy not to be involved, myself. With a better cash flow, I would bet anyway because my negative stats are often trumped by the quality of David's selections. But I can't recommend win bets or multiples to myself and anyone else prepared to listen!
The A-List
**GRAN SASSO (Best) (Forecast 6/4) David's record is 89Gains66Losses (OK). I like to see it better for a Best bet, really. Negative: my win stat is 24W40L Note: the UK Win stats are based on quality selections i.e., not on 'all races' in equivalent categories -
*HAWKSTER (Value) (Forecast 7/2) Wins Bank stands at 61. Big field. 109Gains72Losses (OK). Negative: 23W44L -
*MRS WATERS (Forecast 13/8) David's excellent stat: 61Gains21Losses -
**STELLA JOY (Forecast 15/8) Big field. 82Gains49Losses (good) -
B-List
*RACE MEMORY (Forecast 8/1) David's record the same as for Hawkster. Big field. -
The rest OK or worse as regards David's records. My UK negative stats are meagre re FUJI FANTASY.
*3 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L). Plus **5 in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) -
Worst general race stats: jointly GRASKEY/ALLERVITE; Best: MRS WATERS (ignoring the negative UK stat).
My A-List Base Stake would have been 30. B-List 14 pts.
Good luck!

Wednesday, May 28, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

May 28 Results
I would have ended Aussie racing about even, I think.
The A-List
**GRAN SASSO (Best) (Forecast 6/4) David's record is 89Gains66Losses (OK). I like to see it better for a Best bet, really. Negative: my win stat is 24W40L Note: the UK Win stats are based on quality selections i.e., not on 'all races' - 2ND +Nil
*HAWKSTER (Value) (Forecast 7/2) Wins Bank stands at 61. Big field. Now, 110Gains72Losses (OK). Negative: 23W44L - 2ND +Nil
*MRS WATERS (Forecast 13/8) David's excellent stat: now, 61Gains22Losses - LOST
**STELLA JOY (Forecast 15/8) Big field. Now, 83Gains49Losses (good) - 2ND +Nil
B-List
*RACE MEMORY (Forecast 8/1) David's record was the same as for Hawkster. Big field. - LOST
The rest OK or worse as regards David's records. My UK negative stats are meagre re FUJI FANTASY/WON.
*3 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) 1 x PL 2 x L. Plus **5 in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - 2 x PL (incl. 1W) 3 x L (1 outright winner from 8).
Worst general race stats: jointly GRASKEY/ALLERVITE/BOTH LOST; Best: MRS WATERS/LOST.
My A-List Base Stake remains 30 tomorrow. B-List 14 pts (If tomorrow is a losing day it will drop to 13 the day after).
Hope you did all right!

Wednesday, May 28, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

May 29 Preview
The Best selection is not endorsed by David's record, which is unviable for Place bets at 35Gains27Losses. My UK Win stats suggest 50/50 for the win so I think a win bet only chanced, there, may be the way to go. The same goes for OUR PRIVATE J ET (F/c 10/1) & TOJO O'REILLY (F/c 7/1) on which David's record is distinctly unviable at 6Gains9Losses & 8Gains15Losses respectively. My UK win stats on these are, in one category, 6W9L on the former and non-existant on the latter, while, on the other category, both 50/50ish for the win (but on meagre stats - 6W5L and 2W3L respectively). On the rest, David's records are good-to-excellent and my UK win stats, except on the asterisked, not bad .
I am unsure but I have doubts that all-up multiples are a good idea today, certainly about the B-List. A Place Treble on the A-List without the Best bet is a possibility, says he, sticking his neck out!
The A-List
SEA ZULU (Best) (Forecast 6/4) -
*GAFFE (Value) (Forecast 15/8) Wins Bank stands at 47 -
(**)FORWARD VISION (Forecast 15/8)
B-List
**ANDAMON (Forecast 13/1) Big field (?) -
*1 race in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L). Plus **2 in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) -
Worst general race stats: TOJO O'REILLY; Best: HIGH ANXIETY.
My A-List Base Stake remains 30 (a winning day would put it back up to 31 for tomorrow). B-List is14 pts. But I am not betting today, regretfully
Good luck!

Thursday, May 29, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

May 29 Preview
My suggestion of doing a Win bet only on SEA ZULU worked out, especially as returns for a Place bet were poor.
The A-List
SEA ZULU (Best) (Forecast 6/4) - WON +NIL (David's record is, now, 36 Gains27Losses)
*GAFFE (Value) (Forecast 15/8) Wins Bank stands at 47 - 2ND -NIL (Win bet would have been Capped at 14 pts - therefore, Bank reduced to 33)
(**)FORWARD VISION (Forecast 15/8) Stats relatively meagre - LOST -NIL I should have added that instead of a Place Treble, omitting this one in a Place Double might prove better
B-List
**ANDAMON (Forecast 13/1) Big field reduced to 12 - WON (at around 7/2) +NIL (David's record is, now, 111Gains72Losses)
OUR PRIVATE J ET (F/c 10/1) - 3RD +NIL (David's record is, now, 7Gains9Losses)
*1 race in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) - 2ND. Plus **2 in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - WON & LOST (Overall,1W from 3)
Worst general race stats: TOJO O'REILLYLOST; Best: HIGH ANXIETY/3RD.
My A-List Base Stake goes back up to 31 tomorrow (I am assuming today was a break-even day, which I treat as a win day). B-List is 14 pts.
I hope you did well!

Thursday, May 29, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

May 29 Preview
The Best selection is not endorsed by David's record so far in this race category, 50Gains40Losses (unviable for Place bets). My UK Win stat is an indifferent 19W29L (near " ** " qualifier), so I think a win bet only, as per yesterday, may be the way to go. About PELLTRO, the Value selection, David's record is unviable so far, too, at 35Gains27Losses. My UK win stat at (meagre sample of races) 3W9L is, obviously, discouraging. However, with its forecast odds at 40/1, it must be worth chancing: possibly each way?
But, but, surely it is brave indeed today to contemplate an all-up multiple on the A-List? Were I betting, I so would; probably. The return could be stunning ...
The A-List
COME IN SPANNER (Best) (Forecast 11/4, note) -
**PELLTRO (Value) (Forecast 40/1) Win Bank stands at 33 -
SPECIAL VOYAGE (Forecast 5/4) D's record: 119G58L, pretty good. UK Wins stat, worse than 50/50 by a couple of notches -
DANCE GIRL DANCE (F/c 6/4) Big field. D's best stat today: 72G31L. My UK win stats just OK, part-quirky -
B-List
All Big fields, note.
KENSHE (F/c 5/2) Good stats -
GEEBEETEE (F/c 6/1) Negative UK win stat the same as Come In Spanner's (near " ** " qualifier) -
**FINN O'REILLY (F/c 15/4) -
** HUDDLE (F/c 11/1) D's record so far is poor: 6G9L - 'inherent predictive difficulty,' rather high, obviously. UK stat is a negative, too: 2W5L -
I would be inclined to pass today on B-List multiples were I betting.
*No race in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L). But **3 in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) plus 2 others that nearly qualified -
Worst (general) race stats: HUDDLE; Best: DANCE GIRL DANCE.
My A-List Base Stake would have been 31 (a losing day would put it back down to 30 tomorrow). The B-List's is still 14 pts but I am not betting today, regretfully
Good luck!

Friday, May 30, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

May 30 Results
Blow out day, thanks to scratchings and meeting abandonment. Come In Spanner made it into 3rd, so my suggestion of a win only bet was not born out. However, the only other runner, Special Voyage, travelled well (Joke. Sorry. I don't know how it travelled) but made 4th. So my advice against doing the all-up multiple made good by the skin of its teeth.
The A-List
COME IN SPANNER (Best) (Forecast 11/4, note) - 3RD +NIL
SPECIAL VOYAGE (Forecast 5/4) D's record: 119G58L, pretty good. UK Wins stat, worse than 50/50 by a couple of notches - 4th LOST -NIL
B-List
My A-List Base Stake stays at 31. The B-List's 14 pts.
Hope you got something out of the day!

Friday, May 30, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

Saturday, May 31, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

May 31 Preview (Apologies for the late posting)
My stats today are not encouraging. The Best selection is barely endorsed by David's record so far in this race category, 71Gains49Losses (unviable for Place bets). My UK Win stats are bad (" * " &" ** " qualifiers), so I think a win bet only may be the way to go. About the Value selection, David's record is also unviable so far at 36Gains27Losses. My UK win stats are fair (majorities on the Loss side, however). An all-up multiple on the A-List to me is not indicated. Were I betting, I would do one, probably (but not one on the B-List or the two lists together).
* & ** HOLDEM (Best) (Forecast 9/2, note) - LOST -Nil
FALVELON'S DREAM (Value) (Forecast 11/4) Win Bank stood at (corrected) 30 - 3RD -Nil. Would have lost c6 pts To Win. Bank reduced to 24 (having started at 26). One good win can shoot it back up again, obviously, but the Win bet policy has disappointed lately.
*ROYAL ROCK (Forecast 11/10) D's record: 110G72L (pretty good). My best UK Win stat on it is worse than 50/50 by a notch - 2ND +Nil
VINIGAR HILL (F/c 13/8) Big field. D's stat: 16G11L, proportionally good over fewer races than most. My UK win stats contradictory but on few races -
B-List
DAUNTING LAD (F/c 11/1) David's record is bad at 9G14L. My UK win stats quirky/good, both being majority wins over losses. Win bet only definitely indicated -
On the others, my UK win stats include 2 x * category and 1 x **. Pass today on B-List multiples.
*4 (!) races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L). Only **1 in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) -
General race stats: Worst: DAUNTING LAD (if I ignore the favourable UK stats); Best: marginally, ROYAL ROCK, I think.
My A-List Base Stake would have been 30. The B-List's is still stuck on 14 pts - but, of course, I am not betting currently.
Good luck!

Saturday, May 31, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

May 31 Results
My stats today were not unduly encouraging and, this time, results bore them out.
* & ** HOLDEM (Best) (Forecast 9/2, note) - -Nil
FALVELON'S DREAM (Value) (Forecast 11/4) Win Bank stood at (corrected) 30 - 3rd -Nil. Would have lost c6 pts To Win had I bet. Bank reduced to 24 (having started at 26). One good win can shoot it back up again, obviously, but the Win bet policy on these has disappointed lately.
*ROYAL ROCK (Forecast 11/10) D's record: 110G72L (pretty good). My better UK Win stat on it is worse than 50/50 by a notch - 2nd +Nil
VINIGAR HILL (F/c 13/8) Big field. D's stat: 16G11L (proportionally good over fewer races than most). My UK win stats contradictory, but on few races - -Nil
B-List
DAUNTING LAD (F/c 11/1) David's record is bad at 9G14L. My UK win stats quirky/good, both majority wins over losses. Win bet only definitely indicated - Unplaced. -Nil
On the others, my UK win stats include 2 x * category and 1 x **.
Decision to pass today on B-List multiples, were I betting, was born out. None placed.
*4 (!) races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) - 1 PL 3L. Only **1 in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - LOST (No outright winner from 5 overall). To my way of thinking, selections on these is akin to betting on races paying 2 places only.
General race stats: Worst: DAUNTING LAD/LOST; Best: ROYAL ROCK/2ND.
My A-List Base Stake stays at 30 tomorrow. The B-List's stays stuck on 14 pts - but, of course, I am not betting currently.
I hope your damage, if any, was limited!

Saturday, May 31, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 01 Preview
My stats today endorse the selections but not emphatically.
GOLDEN SNIP (Best) (Forecast 2/1) David's stat: 71G49L -
AQUA CALDA (Value) (Forecast 11/4) Win Bank at 25. Stats 50/50ish for the Win. Big field -
**ZELTA GLOW (Forecast 7/2) D's record: 35G27L (modest). Big field -
**WIT AND WISDOM (F/c 9/10) D's stat: 90G66L -
I would do the multiples, were I betting, on balance.
No B-List
*No races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L). **2 in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) -
General race stats: Worst: ZELTA GLO; Best: No stand out.
My A-List Base Stake is 30 - but I am not betting currently.
Good luck!

Sunday, June 01, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 01 Result
My stats today endorse the selections but not emphatically.
GOLDEN SNIP (Best) (Forecast 2/1) David's stat: 71G49L - 3RD
AQUA CALDA (Value) (Forecast 11/4) Win Bank at 25 .Stats 50/50ish for the Win. Big field - LOST. Bank reduced to 20.
**ZELTA GLOW (Forecast 7/2) D's record: 35G27L (modest). Big field - WON
**WIT AND WISDOM (F/c 9/10) D's stat: 90G66L - 2ND
I would have done the usual multiples, were I betting, but perhaps with less on the all-up so as not to turn it into an all-oops.
No B-List
*No races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L). **2 in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - WON & 2ND
General race stats: Worst: ZELTA GLO/WON; Best: No stand out.
My A-List Base Stake is now 31 (but I am not betting currently).
Hop you did well!

Monday, June 02, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 02 Preview
David's record endorses the selections - but all three being also in the "dreaded" category suggests 'no win bets' and that an especial chance would be taken on multiples.
No "Best" - Non runner
*BOENDSO (Forecast 15/1) (Value) D's record: 16G11L (modest & probably none would have been 15/1). Big field. Win Bank 20 -
*&**BRONZE AUSSIE (F/c 3/1) D's stat: 18G9L (Good - but relatively few runnings). Negative UK Wins stat: 4W7L (Poor - but ditto) -
*FINCE THE TROPICS (F/c 9/4) D's stat: 92G46L (very good) -
I would do the place multiples, were I betting, on balance.
No B-List
*3 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L). **1 also in the 'as near as dammit'
category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) -
General race stats: Worst: BOENDSO; Best: FINCE THE TROPICS.
My A-List Base Stake is 31 (but I am not betting currently).
Hope you do well! Good luck!

Monday, June 02, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 02 Preview
David's record endorsed the selections - but all three were also in the "dreaded" category suggesting 'no win bets' and that "an especial chance would be taken if multiples (were) done".
No "Best" - Non runner
*BOENDSO (Forecast 15/1) (Value) D's record: 16G11L (modest & probably none would have been 15/1). Big field. Win Bank 20 - LOST -1.46 pts (Bank down to 19). Never sighted that I heard, sadly.
*&**BRONZE AUSSIE (F/c 3/1) D's stat: now 18G10L (Good - but relatively few runnings). Negative UK Wins stat: 4W7L (Poor - but ditto) - LOST -5.18 pts (reduced from the computed 8.23). [Didn't hear this race]
*FINCE THE TRONICS (F/c 9/4) D's stat: now 92G47L (very good) - No bet. Challenged leader late on, then faded to finish last.
I did the multiples (Ds&T) plus Xtra after all = LOST -9.86 pts.
No B-List
*3 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L), including **1 in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - ALL LOST.
General race stats: Worst: BOENDSO/LOST; Best: FINCE THE TRONICS/LOST.
My A-List Base Stake is 30 for tomorrow (but I probably won't be betting).
Hope you minimized loss!

Monday, June 02, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 02 Results
David's record endorsed the selections - but all three were also in the "dreaded" category suggesting 'no win bets' and that "an especial chance would be taken if multiples (were) done".
No "Best" - Non runner
*BOENDSO (Forecast 15/1) (Value) D's record: 16G11L (modest & probably none would have been 15/1). Big field. Win Bank 20 - LOST -1.46 pts (Bank down to 19). Never sighted that I heard, sadly.
*&**BRONZE AUSSIE (F/c 3/1) D's stat: now 18G10L (Good - but relatively few runnings). Negative UK Wins stat: 4W7L (Poor - but ditto) - LOST -5.18 pts (reduced from the computed 8.23). [Didn't hear this race]
*FINCE THE TRONICS (F/c 9/4) D's stat: now 92G47L (very good) - No bet. Challenged leader late on, then faded to finish last.
I did the multiples (Ds&T) plus Xtra after all = LOST -9.86 pts.
No B-List
*3 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L), including **1 in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - ALL LOST.
General race stats: Worst: BOENDSO/LOST; Best: FINCE THE TRONICS/LOST.
My A-List Base Stake is 30 for tomorrow (but I probably won't be betting).
Hope you minimized loss!

Monday, June 02, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 03 Preview
David's record in my books, more emphatically than of late, endorse his selections - but 2 are in the "as near as dammit" category, suggesting 'no win bets' (both are in big fields, too).
**IDLE MAC (Best) - David's record: 111G72L. Big field -
HOLD FAST (Forecast 11/4) (Value) D's record (small sample): 22G13L Win Bank 19 pts If I bet it will be a Win bet -
AUSSIE RED. D's stat: 119G59L. Negative UK Wins stat (mild-ish): 53W74L -
**GONDORF. D's stat: now 90G66L (Fairly good) Big field -
I might do the place multiples (Ds,T & 4-Fold) plus Xtra/s if any = ?
No B-List
*No races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L), but **2 in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - .
General race stats: Worst: GONDORF; Best: AUSSIE RED.
My A-List Base Stake is 30 (if I bet).
Good luck!

Tuesday, June 03, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 03 Results
David's record endorsed his selections - but 2 were in the "as near as dammit" category, suggesting 'no win bets.'
**IDLE MAC (Best) - David's record: 111G72L. Big field - WON +NIL
HOLD FAST (Forecast 11/4) (Value) D's record: 22G13L Win Bank 19 pts If I bet it will be a Win bet - NON RUN (Meeting off)
AUSSIE RED. D's stat: 119G59L. Negative UK Wins stat (mild-ish): 53W74L - WON +NIL
**GONDORF. D's stat: now 90G66L (Fairly good) Big field - 2ND +NIL
I did the place multiples (Ds & T) plus no Xtra = WON +4.52 pts
No B-List
*No races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L), but **2 in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - WON & PLACED
General race stats: Worst: GONDORF/2ND; Best: AUSSIE RED/WON.
My A-List Base Stake stays at 30 for the next betting day (which probably for me will be in a couple of days' time)
Hope you did well!

Tuesday, June 03, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 06 Preview
David's record in my books is based on fewer races than usual and ranges from quite good to bad. The selections are all in big fields and the forecast odds range from 11/2 to 15/1. **3 are in my "as near as dammit" category (also based on few races) which I avoid for win bets. The records suggest that betting on these today would be degrees more speculative than usual. But if successful the returns could be very good, especially on multiples.
**ZIP IT OFF (Best) (Forecast 12/1) - David's record: 36G27L. Big field -
**STAR ROSE (F/c 15/1) (Value) D's record: 10G6L Big field. Win Bank 19 pts -
**MEGA STAR MILLY (F/c 11/2) D's stat: 8G15L Big field -
CAN HE DANCE (F/c 15/2) D's stat: 7G6L Big field -
No B-List
*No races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L), but **3 in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - .
General race stats: Worst: MEGA STAR MILLY; Best: ZIP IT OFF (if I ignore my negative UK Win stat 8W14L).
My A-List Base Stake is 30 but I won't be betting today except on the Value bet (to win)
Good luck!

Friday, June 06, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 06 Results
I previewed that my records suggested betting on the selections "would be degrees more speculative than usual." None met with success this time. Apart from backing the Value bet to win, I did a small double on it and the Best selection to Place at a cost of 0.76 pts.
**ZIP IT OFF (Best) (Forecast 12/1) - David's record: now 36G28L. Big field was reduced by scratchings - LOST -NIL
**STAR ROSE (F/c 15/1) (Value) D's record: now 10G7L. Win Bank now 18 pts. Big field likewise reduced, which doubled by stake - LOST -1.02 pts
**MEGA STAR MILLY (F/c 11/2) D's stat: now 8G16L Big field - -NIL
CAN HE DANCE (F/c 15/2) D's stat: now 7G7L Big field - -NIL
No B-List
*No races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L), but **3 in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - all lost..
General race stats: Worst: MEGA STAR MILLY; Best: ZIP IT OFF (if I ignore my UK Win stat 8W14L) - neither placed.
My A-List Base Stake is, routinely, in the danger zone for dropping by 5 from 30 pts at this point.
Hope you minimized loss!

Friday, June 06, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 07 Preview
My records are not encouraging today. David's record is based on few races regarding 2 of the A-List. 2 of the A-List selections are in big fields and the forecast odds range from 5/2 to 11/2 on 3 of the 4, a touch longer than sometimes is the case. All but 1 of the 8 are in my dodgy categories for win bets & the one that isn't has the worst stat of all (an unviable 9Gains14Losses). The records suggest no win bets and, if done, somewhat risky multiples. But, as always, none of this matters if David is on form! ("Stats don't make selections nor run races.") But I shall just do a win bet on the A-List Value selection and no multiples.
* & ** SOVEREIGN MISS (Best) (Forecast 5/2) - David's record: an OK 72G50L Negative UK stats on two counts -
BIG PRODUCTION (F/c 7/4) (Value) D's record: an unviable 9G14L. UK stats positive on two counts (but also on few races). Win Bank 18 pts. Stake: 3.12 pts to win -
**BONDED (F/c 11/2) D's stat: an OK 91G66L Big field -
TWIN TRIST (F/c 7/2) D's stat on few races: 3G2L. UK Win stats similar on negative side. Big field -
B-List
All standard sized fields. David's best stats are here today: on *BRUNELLO (F/c 5/1) 112G72L & *HEZABOUT (F/c 11/1) 92G47L. The other **two selections have the same stats as BONDED and are F/c at about the same odds (c5/1). I feel there is a chance multiple bets on the B-List might succeed as David's race stats are generally OK to good on all these 4 runners. But I'm not going to risk it.
*3 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L), & **4 in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - .
General race stats: Worst: TWIN TRIST (because so few races provide my indifferent stats); Best: marginally, BIG PRODUCTION (on lowest F/c odds & my positive UK win stats but ignoring that they are on few races and also the fact of David's adverse record of 9G14L).
My A-List Base Stake is 30; B-List 14 (but I am slightly behind in my records)
Good luck!

Saturday, June 07, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 07 Results
My records were not encouraging, suggesting no win bets and, if done, somewhat risky multiples. There were no wins, and 50% Placed success likely would have been insufficient to profit from any obvious configuration of multiples. I lost 3.30 pts overall.
* & ** SOVEREIGN MISS (Best) (Forecast 5/2) - David's record: now 73G50L - 2ND Token +0.02 pts
BIG PRODUCTION (F/c 7/4) (Value) D's record: now 9G15L. Win Bank reduced to 15 pts - 4TH. Good run for money. No cigar. -3.12 pts
**BONDED (F/c 11/2) D's stat: now 92G66L Big field reduced to 12 or less - Photo 2ND by a nose. Token +0.07 pts
TWIN TRIST (F/c 7/2) D's stat on few races: now 3G3L. Big field - Token -0.12 pts
B-List
All standard sized fields. David's best stats were here: on *BRUNELLO (F/c 5/1) [good 2ND. Token +0.31] now 113G72L & *HEZABOUT (F/c 11/1) [Token -0.30 pts] now 92G48L. The other **two selections had the same stats as BONDED and were F/c at about the same odds (c5/1). I felt there was a chance multiple bets on the B-List might succeed as David's race stats were generally OK-to-good on these 4 runners. So I decided to risk a version of one at token stake levels = NET LOSS -0.15 pts.
*3 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) - 2PL (incl. 0W)1L, & **4 in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - 3PL (incl. 0W)1L Note: No outright winner from 7 runners though Bonded lost very narrowly.
General race stats: Worst: TWIN TRIST/LOST; Best: BIG PRODUCTION/LOST (4th).
My A-List Base Stake is now a (vulnerable) 30; B-List 14 & edging towards vulnerability.
Hope you broke even or better!

Saturday, June 07, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 08 Results
I slept through this day, I'm afraid.
In retrospect, my records were encouraging but not especially so as regards win bets. But I am particularly upset to have missed a winning A-List Value selection, one I certainly would have backed even though I am betting sparely at the moment! At least that result has freshened up that bank, if only on paper.
SCION (Best) - David's record: now 121G59L. Mild negative UK Win stat: 53W74L- 3RD
*SOFT SELL (F/c 5/2) (Value) D's record: now 93G47L. Win Bank increased to 68 - WON @ 4.80 (I would have Capped bet @ 14 pts)
BONINDI (F/c 4/1) D's stat: now 54G33L Big field - 2ND
MAQUIS (F/c 13/8) D's stat: now 121G59L - WON
B-List
I race called off, the other 3 selections lost, *2 of them in my "dreaded" category for win bets.
*3 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) - 1PL (incl. 1W)2L, & **None in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) Note: 1 winner from 3 (the average).
General race stats: Worst: BONINDI/2ND; Best: jointly SCION/3RD/MAQUIS/WON.
My A-List Base Stake remains a (still vulnerable) 30; B-List 14 & still edging towards vulnerability.
Hope you did well!

Sunday, June 08, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 07 Preview
My stats are encouraging today. 2 A-List selections would be Capped were I betting - and that hasn't occurred in living memory - well, just feels that way. 3 short priced Favourites, prospectively, lumped in with a long priced A-List Value selection, which is itself supported by fairly good all-round stats on the face of it. Makes things especially interesting for A-List multiples. (I don't think I would recommend a multiple on the B-List today, on balance.)
David's record is fair-to-excellent pretty much across the board on both lists. Only 2 big fields are represented, one of them only just (13 runners). Only 1 selection (B-List) is in the "dreaded" category for win bets but, it's true, 3 others in the 'near as dammit' category, 2 of these in the B-List. I would be quite hopeful were I investing today but as before I think I will, regretfully, limit myself to a win bet on Mystic Mountain.
KAPHERO (Best) (Forecast 11/10) - David's record is a viable 72G31L. Positive UK stats on two counts. Capped at 31 pts (from 422.60). Big field (13) -
MYSTIC MOUNTAIN (F/c 20/1) (Value) D's record is the most modest, here, at 17G13L (but none of these results is likely to have been @ 20/1, of course). UK stats are positive on two counts for the win (but ditto proviso). Win Bank is at 68 pts. Computed stake: 5.82 to win -
**TRANSACTION (F/c 5/4) D's stat: an OK 92G66L -
BANNERKENS (F/c 13/8) D's stat: a viable 122G59L. UK Win stats on negative side. Capped at 31 pts (from 61.56) -
B-List
Big field re *&**CAPRIZZI STRIP. David's weakest stat is here on CANCANELLA (F/c 11/2), an unviable 37G28L. The others are OK.
*1 race in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L), & **3 others in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - .
General race stats: Worst: CAPRIZZI STRIP; Best: KAPHERO.
My A-List Base Stake is assessed as 31 after all; B-List assessed as reduced to 13.
Good luck!

Monday, June 09, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 07 Preview
My records were encouraging today and, in the end thankfully, I chanced a few single bets. It proved a clean sweep of placed results except for the non-runner. Excellent place tipping! Hopefully, readers went easy on win bets to a degree - there were only 2. I rather wish I had stressed that this might be prudent in that my exceptionally good UK win stats were confined to KAPHERO & (with reservations) MYSTIC MOUNTAIN. CANCANELLA's were 50/50. The rest nothing to write home about, really. (At least I did highlight 4 to avoid for win bets.)
KAPHERO (Best) (Forecast 11/10) - David's record, now, is 73G31L. Positive UK stats on two counts. Capped at 31 pts (from 422.60) but I went with a reduced bet of 13.06 pts. Big field reduced to 11 - WON +2.61
MYSTIC MOUNTAIN (F/c 20/1) (Value) D's record was the most modest, here, now at 18G13L (but none of these results is likely to have been forecast @ 20/1, of course). UK stats were positive on two counts for the win. Win Bank is reduced to 62 pts - 2ND (good run) = LOSS = -5.82. A Stewards' Enquiry (2nd v. 1st) got me excited but the result was left unaltered, alas. (Win odds were around 9/1 in the end.)
**TRANSACTION (F/c 5/4) D's stat: now 93G66L - WON + 4.70
BANNERKENS (F/c 13/8) Would have been a Capped bet. But UK win stat no better than fair - NO RUN
B-List
Big field reduced to 11 re. *(&**)CAPRIZZI STRIP/2ND [Full computed stake, but small = +0.53. Good run for money] .Now, a fair but still unviable 74G50L. I nearly backed it as a late Xtra to my (non-existent) All-Up multiple. Then, on the possibility of losing the little gain for the day that had accrued, I chickened out. No regrets.
David's weakest stat (in the B-List) was on CANCANELLA/2ND [Token stake = +0.41 pts gain], a still unviable 38G28L, now.
The others were okay on David's record: **BERGSTROM/2ND [No bet] **BOSS IT'S OVER/2ND [Full computed stake = +2.11 gain].
*1 race was in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) - 2ND, & **3 others were in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner per 3 selections on average) - 1W2PL = Overall 4PL(incl.1W)0L, slightly worse than the average expectation (though very good re. placed selections, of course).
General race stats: Worst: CAPRIZZI STRIP/2ND; Best: KAPHERO/WON.
My A-List Base Stake stays 31 for tomorrow; B-List goes back to 14 (I am still catching up on recent results records).
My gain was 4.54 pts today. Hopefully you did a lot better!

Monday, June 09, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 10 Preview
B-List
My records are less valid about B-List selections but encouraging today.
ISA HALO David's record is 16Gains13Losses. Not terrific UK win stat 6W9L. Big field. Stake 3.39 pts - WON +0.68
DABERO'S JAG (Forecast 10/1) Excellent stats. Capped stake @ 14 (from 31.22) Reduced risk to 6.37 pts -
NEXT PARTY (F/c 11/4) D's record 18G13L. UK Win stat similar on a lot more races. Capped at 14 (from 19.56). Reduced risk to 3.99 pts -
**HOLD FAST (F/c 8/1) D's record 112G72L. UK Win stats a negative. Stake 1.03. Reduced risk to 0.21 pts -
*No race in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L), & **1 in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - .
General race stats: Worst: HOLD FAST; Best: DABERO'S JAG.
My B-List Base Stake is assessed as 14.
Good luck!

Tuesday, June 10, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 10 Results
B-List
My records are less valid about B-List selections but they were encouraging today.
ISA HALO David's record is 16Gains13Losses. Not terrific UK win stat 6W9L. Big field. Stake 3.39 pts - WON +0.68
DABERO'S JAG (Forecast 10/1) Excellent stats. Capped stake @ 14 (from 31.22) Reduced risk to 6.37 pts - Baullked in its run. Unlucky.
NEXT PARTY (F/c 11/4) D's record 18G13L. UK Win stat similar on a lot more races. Capped at 14 (from 19.56). Reduced risk to 3.99 pts -
**HOLD FAST (F/c 8/1) D's record 112G72L. UK Win stats a negative. Stake 1.03. Reduced risk to 0.21 pts -
*No race in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L), & **1 in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - LOST.
General race stats: Worst: HOLD FAST/LOST; Best: DABERO'S JAG/LOST.
My B-List Base Stake may drop to 13 tomorrow.
Hope you minimized losses!

Tuesday, June 10, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 11 Preview
Yesterday my records were encouraging, but, in the event, only 1 B-List selection gained. Today's batch of stats are about as mixed a bag as I ever remember, too many of them discouraging, for whatever that is worth. Who knows? My instinct is to leave today's selections unbacked. (I need the night off in the UK, anyway, as I have an early start in the morning.) That said, several are forecast at short odds. They must have a good chances of being placed? But on my stats I can't advise any win bets; and as for multiples, I would think a Place double on the Best & Value selections could be off-chanced, at a pinch, otherwise too many big fields and ** category selections to unduly encourage hopefulness in my book. What price plenty of egg on my face by the end of racing today?!
A-List
**WEST RIVER BOY (Best) (Forecast 4/5) - David's record is excellent, albeit on relatively few races: 15G8L. Negative UK win stats on two counts. Big field - but the short F/c odds suggest it may be 'a good thing?' -
MARINE DRIVE (F/c 15/2) (Value) Almost no stats (all of 10 runners! F/c @ under 13/1 of which 6 are F/c @ under 8/1) & what I have ain't too promising: David's 0G2L. UK win stats: 0W1L & 1W4L. Big field. Win Bank is at 62 pts. Computed stake: 0.09 pts (!) to win. (Will probably hack up!?) I'll chance the win bet just for fun! -
HENRY THE PHARAOH (F/c 5/1) D's stat: an OK 54G33L. Negative UK win stats on two counts -
**YOULWIN (F/c 4/5) D's stat is an unviable 16G13L. UK Win stats negative. Big field -
B-List
Big fields re 2: **TRICKED THEM (F/c 8/1) & the poorest 'David's record' in the B-List - 36G28L: **GIFT OF KNOWLEDGE (F/c 8/1). The others are OK stats-wise & at shorter F/c odds, including the "Best General stats" nominee: TATSUHARA (F/c 11/4). BARTER TIME is F/c @ 4/5, surprisingly short for a B-List selection I would have thought? As I say, a very mixed bag of stats!
*No race is in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L), but **4 others are in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - .
General race stats: Worst: YOULWIN (or, due to the absence of much in the way of stats, F/c 15/2 Value shot MARINE DRIVE); Best: TATSUHARA.
My A-List Base Stake is assessed as 32 after all; B-List assessed as 14 (my records are not quite up to date). But I won't be betting much today myself.
Good luck!

Wednesday, June 11, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 11 Results
"Today's batch of stats are about as mixed a bag as I ever remember ... Who knows? My instinct is to leave today's selections unbacked. ... That said, several ... must have a good chances of being placed? But I can't advise any win bets; and as for multiples, I would think a Place double on the Best & Value selections could be off-chanced ..." I previewed. Notably the Place Double coming off is pleasing. There were 3 outright winners, however, from 6 that ran. I would think that would have been enough for some wins profit, but half unplaced is usually enough to lose out on the Place side.
A-List
**WEST RIVER BOY (Best) (Forecast 4/5) - David's record is excellent, albeit on relatively few races: now 16G8L. Big field - but the short F/c odds suggest it may be 'a good thing?' - WON +Nil
MARINE DRIVE (F/c 15/2) (Value) Almost no stats (all of 10 runners! F/c @ under 13/1 of which 6 are F/c @ under 8/1) & what I have ain't too promising: David's now 1G2L. Big field. Win Bank is unchanged at 62 pts. Computed stake: 0.09 pts (!) to win. (Will probably hack up!?) - WON +Nil. Would have been +0.41 gain but I didn't back it in the end because my bookie balance was absolute zero!
HENRY THE PHARAOH (F/c 5/1) D's stat: 54G34L, now - 3RD but only 2 places paid. -Nil (3rd would have been paid on Betfair, often the better betting option in case the original field drops from 8 to 7)
**YOULWIN (F/c 4/5) D's stat here is, now, 16G14L. Big field - LOST -Nil
B-List
Big fields re 2: **TRICKED THEM (F/c 8/1)/NO RUN: **GIFT OF KNOWLEDGE (F/c 8/1)/NO RUN. The others were OK & at shorter F/c odds, including the "Best General stats" nominee: TATSUHARA (F/c 11/4)/LOST -Nil. BARTER TIME/WON +Nil is F/c @ 4/5, surprisingly short for a B-List selection? As I said, a mixed bag of stats today!
*No race in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L), but **4 others in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - 1PL (incl 1W)1L 2N/r
General race stats: Worst: YOULWIN/LOST (or, due to the absence of much in the way of stats, F/c 15/2 Value shot MARINE DRIVE/WON); Best: TATSUHARA/LOST.
My A-List Base Stake from a day I am calling "Even" is assessed to remain at 32; B-List is assessed as dropping to 13 (my records are still not quite up to date).
Hope you had good luck today!

Wednesday, June 11, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 12 Results
Today's stats would not have been helpful across the board: the best lost and the worst won! I slept through my normal time on these races and again missed a winner on the A-List Value selection. I shall be glad when normal service is resumed, but days away.
A-List
MONSOON MADNESS (Best) (Forecast 11/10) - David's record is excellent, albeit on relatively few races: now 11G1L. This was his 1st loser in this category! My UK Win stats were excellent too. 2 Places paid This would have been a Capped bet - LOST -Nil
**MA CHIENNE (F/c 4/1) (Value) David's record now 113G72L. Negative UK Wins stat on 1 count (the other positive). Win Bank is increased to 82 pts. Computed stake: 6.02 pts (!) to win - WON +Nil. Notional gain +20.47 pts
SNOOPERCLYDE (F/c 11/4) D's stat: 123G59L, now - 2ND but only 2 places paid. -Nil (3rd place would have been paid on Betfair in the UK, often the better betting option in a case where the field is in danger of dropping below 8)
MISSION CONTROL (F/c 7/4) D's stat here is, now, 84G49L - WON +Nil
B-List
Here, too, the best statted (PENNYCOME QUICK) lost and the worst (*PARTY LINES) won - 2PL (incl. 1W)2L.
*3 races (all in the B-List) in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L), & **1 other in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - .Overall 3PL (incl 2W)1L. The average beaten today.
General race stats: Worst: PARTY LINES/WON; Best: MONSOON MADNESS/LOST.
My A-List Base Stake from a day I am calling "Even" is assessed to remain at 32; B-List is assessed as remaining at 13 (my records are still not quite up to date).
Hope you had a lucky today!

Thursday, June 12, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

Friday, June 13, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 13 Preview
B-List
My stats are less valid about B-List selections than A-List ones but, for what it's worth, are un-encouraging today. Results have been topsy-turvey all year and thus I am not inspired to go against their indications at this time.
OUR OVATIONS (Forecast 7/1) David's record is 9Gains15Losses. UK win stats are unreliable having been created from only 7 races, but negative. Big field (13). No bet -
*GOLD MOSS (Forecast 13/8) D's record good, here: 113Gains72Losses, but that is still an awful lot of losses. Just about viable, of course. Except that I don't bet currently on * selections on UK win stats of 23W44L, this is the selection to bet on (according to my stats) -
*&**ICEDANE (F/c 6/1) D's record is an unviable 37G28L. UK Win stats negative on two counts. Big field. No bet -
LION BRAVE (F/c 7/2) D's record is the same as for Our Ovations's race. UK Win stats positive on two counts. This is a win bet, probably, or no bet -
On multiples, a Place Double might be off-chanced on GOLD MOSS & LION BRAVE
*2 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L), & **1 also in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) -
General race stats: Worst: OUR OVATIONS; Best: LION BRAVE (if I accept the dodgy UK win stats at face value).
My B-List Base Stake is assessed as 13. but I won't be betting today.
Good luck!

Friday, June 13, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 13 Preview
B-List
My stats are less valid about B-List selections than A-List ones but, for what it was worth, were un-encouraging today. Results have been topsy-turvey all year and thus I was not inspired to go against their indications at this time. Despite today proving better than expected, I do feel this is the correct policy. If a category shows up as unviable so far, better to leave it alone, I now feel. Some will win, but overall? There will be other days. After today, I shall be calculating stakes as I am now able to resume something like my normal betting programme.
OUR OVATIONS (Forecast 7/1) David's record remains 9Gains15Losses (not updated on B-List selections). My UK win stats are unreliable having been created from only 7 races, but are negative. Big field (13). No bet - LOST -Nil
*GOLD MOSS (Forecast 13/8) D's record good, here: 113Gains72Losses, but that is still an awful lot of losses. Just about viable, of course. Except that I don't bet currently on * selections on UK win stats of 23W44L, this was the selection to bet on according to my stats - WON +Nil
*&**ICEDANE (F/c 6/1) D's record is an unviable 37G28L. UK Win stats negative on two counts. Big field. No bet - WON +Nil (Case in point re the above comment on policy.)
LION BRAVE (F/c 7/2) D's record is the same as for Our Ovations's race. UK Win stats positive on two counts. This is a win bet, probably, or no bet - I was wrong but I suppose on a 3rd place one can add 'marginally:' 3RD +Nil
On multiples, a Place Double might be off-chanced on GOLD MOSS/WON & LION BRAVE/3RD - GAIN +Nil
*2 raceS in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) - BOTH WON, bucking the average, & **1 also in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections.
General race stats: Worst: OUR OVATIONS/LOST; Best: LION BRAVE/3RD.
My B-List Base Stake remains at 13 at a guess (my records are slightly out of date in this respect).
Hope you did well!

Friday, June 13, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 14 Preview
A-List
My A-List stats, for what it's worth, are un-encouraging again today. I had hoped to be betting as per normal but am inclined to postpone that for at least another day. David's record on the B-List selections is better, EAGLE ROCK excepted (36Gains28Losses). But several big fields and rather big Forecast odds generally suggest a particularly speculative day's punting is involved overall. I would think multiples are not advisable today but would be rewarding if successful.
PRIMA NOVA Best (Forecast 13/2) David's record is not that strong at 37Gains28Losses. UK win stats are 50/50ish. Big field -
VENETIAN STAR Value (F/c 9/1) D's record is 22G13L. UK win stats, on relatively few races also, not too negative . Bank is 82. Stake 5.90 pts to win -
*DAUNTING LAD (Forecast 15/1) D's record is 16G14L. Not viable, so far, obviously. UK win stat of 23W44L is also a negative (tho' my other stat is rather better) -
CAMPASPE RIVER (F/c 15/1) Stats are the same as for Prima Nova. But it's not a big field -
No multiples
B-List
Heavy racing goings and high F/c odds (except CERTAIN MAGIC @ 13/8), but no big fields. I won't do any multiples today, but I am more tempted by the B-List than the A purely on David's record.
*2 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) including *KINDRATE (F/c 12/1) from the B-List, & **EAGLE ROCK (F/c 11/4) in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - .
General race stats: Worst: jointly *DAUNTING LAD & *KINDRATE; Best: VENETIAN STAR.
My A-List Base Stake is assessed as 32; B-List 13 pts but I do not feel at all keen to bet today.
Good luck!

Saturday, June 14, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

Saturday, June 14, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 14 Results
A-List
My A-List stats, for what it's worth, were un-encouraging again today. Several big fields and rather big Forecast odds generally suggested a speculative day's punting was involved overall. I thought multiples were not advisable today and results bore this out. I did not feel at all keen to bet today and thus again missed out on the A-List Value winner.
PRIMA NOVA Best (Forecast 13/2) David's record is not that strong at 37Gains28Losses. UK win stats are 50/50ish. Big field was reduced to below 13 - WON +Nil
VENETIAN STAR Value (F/c 9/1) D's record is 22G13L. UK win stats, on relatively few races also, not too negative . Bank is 82. Stake 5.90 pts to win - WON @ 4.60 Bank increased to 103. No bet unfortunately +Nil
*DAUNTING LAD (Forecast 15/1) D's record is 16G14L. Not viable, so far, obviously. UK win stat of 23W44L is also a negative (tho' my other stat is rather better) - LOST -Nil
CAMPASPE RIVER (F/c 15/1) Stats are the same as for Prima Nova. But it's not a big field - LOST -Nil
No multiples. With hindsight, there was a case for a Place Double on Prima Nova & Venetian Star which I overlooked.
B-List
Heavy racing goings and high F/c odds (except CERTAIN MAGIC/LOST F/c @ 13/8), but no big fields. I won't do any multiples today, but I am more tempted by the B-List than the A purely on David's record - No, they would have failed: 1PL (incl.1W)3L (Time to Laugh was 4th)
*2 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) including *KINDRATE/LOST (F/c 12/1) from the B-List, & **EAGLE ROCK/LOST (F/c 11/4) in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - Overall 1PL (incl.1W)2L, the average upheld.
General race stats: Worst: *DAUNTING LAD/LOST & *KINDRATE/LOST; Best: VENETIAN STAR/WON.
My A-List Base Stake renains assessed as 32; B-List remains at 13 pts.
Hope you had good luck!

Saturday, June 14, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

Sandown (UK) Preview
I am a bit rushed, making a late start on some of my processing of today's cards.
PREMIER DANSEUR - I look for support and opposition and there seems little of the former and plenty of the latter on this one. Not napped by anyone for instance which at 3/1 F/c odds is significant I think. D's record is 113Gains72Losses, quite good, but I wouldn't be backing this one.
SWIFT GUN - Same story as for Premier Danseur. It especially bothers me when a tipster called Newmarket opposes in both these cases. No bet for me.
CORRYBOROUGH - Well supported. Unlikely to be value, I guess. My UK wins stat is not terrific at 63W88L and D's record is only Ok at 84G49L. Not one to go overboard on but I have it in my short-list. Place bet rather than Win bet, I would say.
CRAIGSTOWN - D's record here is an excellent 61G22L. Supported by Newmarket but there is opposition and nobody's Napped it, which at F/c odds of 13/8 is worrying. Again, not one to go overboard on. No single bet, perhaps, but put into a Place Double with CORRYBOROUGH.
Good luck!

Saturday, June 14, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

Sunday, June 15, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

Sandown (UK) 14 June Results
PREMIER DANSEUR - I look for support and opposition and there was little of the former and plenty of the latter on this one. Not Napped by anyone for instance, which at 3/1 F/c odds was significant, I thought - LOST
SWIFT GUN - Same story as for Premier Danseur. It especially bothered me that a tipster called Newmarket opposed both - LOST
CORRYBOROUGH - Well supported. Unlikely to be value, I guessed. My UK wins stat is not terrific at 63W88L and D's Aussie Place record in this category is only Ok at 84G49L. Not one to go overboard on but I had it in my short-list for a Place bet rather than To Win bet - WON, but had to overtake leader from well back. On another day ...
CRAIGSTOWN - D's Aussie Place record here is an excellent 61G22L. This one supported by Newmarket but there was opposition and nobody had Napped it, which at F/c odds of 13/8 was worrying. No single bet, I thought, but put into a Place Double with CORRYBOROUGH - 2ND, & GAIN re. the Place Double
Hope you had good luck!

Sunday, June 15, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 15 Preview
A-List
My stats, for what it's worth, are again un-encouraging. I had hoped to be betting normally now but am still inclined to wait. It is true I am in over-cautious mode at present, but it has come to me that if my stats say 'unviable' I should listen, else why have them? David's record is better on the A-List races selections than the B-List. But 3 big fields from 4 on the A-List and quite big Forecast odds (3/1-9/1x2) suggest another speculative day's punting is involved there, indeed overall, even though the F/c odds range for the B-List is lower (7/4x2-15/2) and there are no big fields there. I would think multiples are again inadvisable.
**LANMIX Best (Forecast 3/1) David's record is just okay at 93Gains66Losses (the weakest in the A-List today). UK win stats are both negative. Big field -
**GIVE IT A HUNDRED Value (F/c 15/2) D's record & UK Win stats are the same as the Best selection. Big field. Win Bank is 103. Stake 1.45 pts to Win -
WHOOSHMAN (Forecast 9/1) D's record is just okay at 54G34L. Not quite viable, so far, obviously. UK win stat of 24W40L is also a negative (tho' my other stat is a little better). Big field -
TEEPEE GEEGEE (F/c 9/1) D's record is excellent at 123G59L. Negative UK win stat 53W74L -
No multiples, or at a pinch Teepee Geegee & Lanmix in a Place Double.
B-List
Heavy racing going at BALLARAT (2 races) but there and elsewhere no big fields. I am more tempted by the B-List than the A in that the overall stats are slightly better but it's marginal and, in ultra-cautious mode, I won't risk it.
*1 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L), *BERMUDA (F/c 7/4) from the B-List, & **3 races including VIEWS (F/c 11/4) also fromthe B-List, (all marginally) in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - .
General race stats: Worst: no stand out (4 dead heat on this); Best: TEEPEE GEEGEE.
My A-List Base Stake is assessed as 32; B-List 13 pts but again I do not feel too keen to bet today.
Good luck!

Sunday, June 15, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 15 Results
A-List
My stats were again un-encouraging. It is worth bearing in mind that gloomy stats are more likely than not to work out, kind of 'easy,' in that sense. (So much can go wrong, race by race.) It has been a feature of David's tipping since I joined his happy band of supporters that his results so often defies them. Even so, I had hoped to be betting normally now (backing all his selections at full computed stakes) but am still inclined to wait. It is true I am in over-cautious mode at present, but it has come to me that if my stats say 'unviable' I should listen, else why have them? What is hard to work out is whether the unviable selections that succeed outweigh the viable that fail. But, hey, individual viability is the safer option, yes? Today, David's record was better on the A-List races selections than the B-List (but incorporating my UK win stats it was the other way around). The B-List fared better in the event. 3 big fields from 4 on the A-List and quite big Forecast odds (3/1-9/1x2) suggested another speculative day's punting was involved there, indeed overall, even though the F/c odds range for the B-List was lower (7/4x2-15/2) and there were no big fields there. I thought multiples were again inadvisable but I made a (successful) exception, albeit not the one I had intended. Most of these points bore out, as it happened. But 5 good results from 8 would have bordered on a profitable day for most, I would think.
**LANMIX Best (Forecast 3/1) David's record is just okay at, now, 94Gains66Losses (was the weakest in the A-List today, oddly enough). UK win stats were both negative. The Big field stayed big. Stake computed after all: 3.64 pts - 3RD +0.73 Decided to back it (as Best bet: David so often right on these).
**GIVE IT A HUNDRED Value (F/c 15/2) D's record & UK Win stats are the same as the Best selection. Big field, but reduced to 12 or less. Win Bank was 103. Stake 1.45 pts to Win - 2ND -1.45 Bank reduced to 102 (I started it at 26. When it gets to 126 or so I shall deduct the original 26).
WHOOSHMAN (Forecast 9/1) D's record is just okay at 54G34L. Not quite viable, so far, obviously. UK win stat of 24W40L is also a negative (tho' my other stat is a little better). Big field - LOST -Nil
TEEPEE GEEGEE (F/c 9/1) D's record is excellent at 123G59L. Negative UK win stat 53W74L. I was tempted to back it but decided to rest on laurels after the Doubles gain - LOST -Nil
No multiples, or, at a pinch, Teepee Geegee & Lanmix in a Place Double/LOST. Instead, I did a Place Double on the Best & Value selections (through a mix up in my mind, actually) = GAIN +6.04 pts
B-List
SOFT SELL - 2ND +Nil, RICEMAN - WON +Nil, VIEWS - LOST -Nil, BERMUDA - 3rd +Nil
Heavy racing going at BALLARAT (2 races) but no big fields. I was more tempted by the B-List than the A re doing an All-Up multiple in that the overall stats were slightly better but it was marginal and in ultra-cautious mode, I didn't risk it. Correct - let down by Views.
*1 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L), *BERMUDA/3RD (F/c 7/4) from the B-List, & **3 races including VIEWS/LOST (F/c 11/4) also from the B-List, (all marginally) in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - Overall 3PL(incl.0W)1L. No outright winner, worse than the average.
General race stats: Worst: no stand out (4 dead heated on this!); Best: TEEPEE GEEGEE/LOST.
My A-List Base Stake is assessed to stay as 32; B-List 13 pts but, not keen to bet today, I was delighted with my 5.32 pts net gain.
Hope you had good luck!

Sunday, June 15, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

Monday, June 16, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 16 Preview
My race stats are generally encouraging today. But I am in over-cautious mode at present, so 3 big fields (all 13) from 4 on the A-List & 2 from 4 on the B-List, plus quite big Forecast odds in 4 cases (12/1 & 6/1 A-List & 8/1 x 2 B-List) suggest a partly extra-speculative day's punting may be in store. I would think multiples are inadvisable on the B-List, but a Place Treble (without the Value selection) on the A-List could be chanced, if my stats are gone by.
A-List
FINAL HABIT Best (Forecast 15/8) David's record is proportionally excellent at 71Gains31Losses. UK win stats both positive, too. Not big field. Stake Capped at 32 pts (from 450.09) -
QUEENS PARK Value (F/c 12/1) D's record is unviable so far at 6G9L & one UK Win stat is exactly this, too, but the other positive. Big field. Win Bank is 102. Stake 0.37 pts to Win -
BETTER NOT CRY (Forecast 6/1) D's record is good at 23G13L. UK win stat of 11W15L is a moderate negative (my other stat is quirky-positive). Big field. Stake 10.11 pts -
COMMANDS INTEREST (F/c 6/4) Stats the same as for Final Habit. Big field. Stake Capped at 32 pts (from 281.31) -
Place Treble without Queens Park, perhaps.
B-List
*UNCLE STUEY (F/c 11/4) Stake 5.26 pts -
**DANCE WICKED (F/c 8/1) Stake 0.85 pts -
REBUKE (F/c 8/1) Stake 0.03 pts -
*TOP CROWN (F/c 2/1) Stake 7.23 pts -
No multiples
*2 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) & **1 race (marginally) in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) -
General race stats: Worst: REBUKE (but based on ultra-thin stats); Best: FINAL HABIT.
My A-List Base Stake is assessed as 32; B-List 13 pts - but I shall probably bet at token levels today in some cases.
Good luck!

Monday, June 16, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 16 Results
My race stats were generally encouraging. But I am in over-cautious mode at present, so 3 big fields (all 13) from 4 on the A-List & 2 from 4 on the B-List, plus quite big Forecast odds in 4 cases (12/1 & 6/1 A-List & 8/1 x 2 B-List) suggested a partly extra-speculative day's punting could be in store and put me off. I thought multiples were inadvisable on the B-List, but a Place Treble/LOST (without the Value selection/LOST) on the A-List could be chanced.
A-List
FINAL HABIT Best (Forecast 15/8) David's record is proportionally excellent at, now, 72Gains31Losses. UK win stats both positive, too. Not big field. Stake Capped at 32 pts (from 450.09) - 3RD +Nil. (Decided to rely solely on the multiples.)
QUEENS PARK Value (F/c 12/1) D's record is unviable at 6G9L & one UK Win stat is exactly the same (but the other positive). Big field. Win Bank is 102. Stake 0.37 pts to Win - LOST -0.37. Bank unchanged.
BETTER NOT CRY (Forecast 6/1) D's record is good at, now, 23G14L. UK win stat of 11W15L is a moderate negative (my other stat is quirky-positive). Big field. Stake 10.11 pts - LOST -Nil
COMMANDS INTEREST (F/c 6/4) Stats the same as for Final Habit. Big field. Stake Capped at 32 pts (from 281.31) - WON +Nil
Place Treble, & (added) Place Doubles, (all without Queens Park) = NET LOSS -7.37
B-List
*UNCLE STUEY (F/c 11/4) Stake 5.26 pts - WON +Nil
**DANCE WICKED (F/c 8/1) Stake 0.85 pts - NON RUN
REBUKE (F/c 8/1) Stake 0.03 pts - LOST -Nil
*TOP CROWN (F/c 2/1) Stake 7.23 pts - WON +Nil
No multiples, though I did toy with doing a Place Double on what proved to be the eventual winners.
*2 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L)/BOTH WON & **1 race (marginally) in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections)/NO RUN - Bucked trend this time.
General race stats: Worst: REBUKE/LOST; Best: FINAL HABIT/3RD.
My A-List Base Stake remains assessed as 32; B-List 13 pts. Am disappointed to have made a 7.37 pts loss today.
Hope you had better luck!

Monday, June 16, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 17 Preview
My race stats are un-encouraging today. In over-cautious mode, I am inclined to let today go unbacked.
A-List
**FIRE EXIT Best (Forecast 2.80) David's record is okay-ish at 73Gains50Losses but I make that, so far, approximately unviable. UK win stats both negative, but on only 7 races between them. Throws up as today's 'worst general stats' nominee. Stake 4.74 -
No Value selection as ARROWIN is a non-runner.
INDASKIES (F/c 9/4) D's record is so far unviable at 38G29L. UK win stats are 50/50ish for the win. Stake 12.77 pts -
PHILLIANN (F/c 2.80) D's record 54G35L, again approx unviable so far. UK Win stats neagtive. Stake 9.09 pts -
No multiples, I think.
B-List
ALTO ADIGO (F/c 11/4) Stake 3.24 pts -
**DOUBLE LINEAGE (F/c 6/1) Stake 3.64 pts -
*FERMINO COURAGE (F/c 11/4) Stake 7.44 pts -
*THE RIDDLER (F/c 9/2) Stake 1.56 pts -
No multiples
*2 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) & **2 races in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - .
General race stats: Worst: FIRE EXIT (if I don't ignore thin stats); Best: DOUBLE LINEAGE.
My A-List Base Stake is assessed as 32; B-List 13 pts - but I shall not bet today.
Good luck!

Tuesday, June 17, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 17 Results
My race stats were un-encouraging today. In over-cautious mode, I was inclined to let today go unbacked. But I changed my mind at reduced stakes and found my first reaction had been the right one!
A-List
**FIRE EXIT Best (Forecast 2.80) David's record is okay-ish at, now, 73Gains51Losses but I make that, so far, approximately unviable. UK win stats both negative, but on only 7 races between them. Throws up as today's 'worst general stats' nominee. Stake 4.74 - LOST -4.74 Came 4th.
No Value selection as ARROWIN is a non-runner.
INDASKIES (F/c 9/4) D's record is so far unviable at, now, 39G29L. UK win stats are 50/50ish for the win. Stake 12.77 pts - WON +2.88 off a reduced stake of 9.59 pts
PHILLIANN (F/c 2.80) D's record now 55G35L, again approx unviable so far. UK Win stats neagtive. Stake 9.09 pts - WON +1.82 off a reduced stake of 4.49 pts
No multiples, I think.
B-List
ALTO ADIGO (F/c 11/4) Stake 3.24 pts - Came 4th. - 3.24
**DOUBLE LINEAGE (F/c 6/1) Stake 3.64 pts - Came last, amiss? -3.64
*FERMINO COURAGE (F/c 11/4) Stake 7.44 pts - Came 4th. - 6.29 Reduced stake
*THE RIDDLER (F/c 9/2) Stake 1.56 pts - LOST -1.56
No multiples
*2 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) - BOTH LOST & **2 races in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - .BOTH LOST Worse than the average
General race stats: Worst: FIRE EXIT/LOST; Best: DOUBLE LINEAGE/LOST.
My A-List Base Stake remains assessed as 32; B-List 13 pts.
Hope you had good luck!

Tuesday, June 17, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

Ascot 17 June Preview
Sound selections by David. However, the doubtful one is TARIQ. A little too opposed for my liking (by several Naps). I would not put it into a multiple.
ORIZABA is opposed by Newmarket, indeed also HENRY THE NAVIGATOR.
But they all have a good chance I would have thought.
Good luck!

Tuesday, June 17, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

PS to ASCOT Preview
Actually, I should point out that FLEETING SPIRIT is significantly opposed, too, by at least 2 Naps by respected tipsters. That should take it out of any multiple, really, I think.
Good luck!

Tuesday, June 17, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

Wednesday, June 18, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

Ascot 17 June Result
Sound selections by David. The doubtful ones were TARIQ/LOST and FLEETING SPIRIT/3RD. A little too opposed for my liking (by several Naps). I thought they ought not to go into a multiple. In fairness, Fleeting Spirit was close to being 4th instead.
ORIZABA/LOST was opposed by Newmarket and, though reared at the start, seems to have been well beaten into 5th. HENRY THE NAVIGATOR/WON won well.
Hopefully you did all right.

Wednesday, June 18, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 18 Preview
My race stats are patchy today. In over-cautious mode, I am inclined to let today go unbacked.
A-List
*BANNERKENS Best (Forecast 9/4) David's record is excellent proportionally at 61Gains22Losses. UK win stats both negative, however, one only mildly. Big field (13). Stake 33.33 pts but I shall not bet this much if I bet. I always think my "dreaded" (*) category place bets are for 1 of 2 places, potentially, not 3, but, that said, this is today's most obvious single bet. (If the field drops to 12 or less, I would normally double the computed stake, after all, putting this into the 'Capped at 32 pts' bracket - 'Same difference,' today that would be, of course.) ... Except ... except ... "9/4" is not that strong, odds-wise. (I've often been disappointed over results having bet at circa 2/1.) Mmm. 'When in doubt, do now't,' they say... No single bet -
HODGES STREET Value (F/c 15/8) D.s record unviable. UK Win stats negative (almost ** status). Stake 6.65 pts to Win (but on my stats, logically, I should abstain, especially as I am not feeling lucky at the moment) -
**TWO FUHR ONE (F/c 5/2) D's record is, so far, distinctly unviable at 6G10L albeit on few races. UK win stats negative. Stake 0.74 pts -
No multiples, I think - or yes, 'for luck,' alternatively, but with no single bet? On balance, a reluctant 'no.'
B-List
OI AUSSIE (F/c 13/1) D's (A-List) record viable; one of 2 in the B-List that is. UK Win stat definite negative, however. Stake 1.39 pts -
**OBTRUSIVE (F/c 2/1) Stake 2.02 pts -
*JACKASS (F/c 6/1) Excellent (A-List) record for David, proportionally: 27G10L. Stake 7.08 pts -
*INSTALL(F/c 16/1) Stake 0.44 pts -
No multiples, though a Place Double on Oi Aussie & Jackass, on my stats, reasonably might be considered 'value.' A hybrid Place Treble with these plus Bannerkens, also, might be considered as an alternative to the 'All-Up' type multiple. (I might do this one 'for luck' at a token stakes level, what the Hell ...)
*3 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) & **2 races in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - .
General race stats: Worst: **TWO FUHR ONE; Best: *BANNERKENS.
My A-List Base Stake is assessed as 32; B-List 13 pts.
Good luck!

Wednesday, June 18, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 18 Results
My race stats were patchy today, some semi-encouraging, some not at all. In over-cautious mode, I was inclined to let today go unbacked. But again I changed my mind, in a small way, & again my 1st thought proved the right one - though, in fairness, the day went better than I feared it could. However, 'across the board' betting would have lost as well, possibly more. So I can't lament my 'luck of the draw' loss over-much of just under 7 pts.
A-List
*BANNERKENS Best (Forecast 9/4) David's record is excellent proportionally at, now, 62Gains22Losses. UK win stats both negative, however, one only mildly. Big field (13). Stake 33.33 pts but I thought this too much to risk. I always think my "dreaded" (*) category place bets are for 1 of 2 places, potentially, not 3, but, that said, this was today's most obvious single bet. (If the field had dropped to 12 or less, I'd normally have doubled the computed stake, putting this into the 'Capped at 32 pts' bracket - 'Same difference,' today, of course.) ... Except ... except ... "9/4" is not that strong, odds-wise. (I'd often been disappointed over results having bet at circa 2/1.) 'When in doubt, do now't,' they say, I recalled ... so, no bet - But it WON +Nil
HODGES STREET Value (F/c 15/8) D.s record unviable. UK Win stats negative (almost ** status). Stake 6.65 pts to Win (but on my stats, logically, I should abstain, I decided) - LOST -Nil (Correct decision. This would have consumed the profit on the Best selection completely.)
**TWO FUHR ONE (F/c 5/2) D's record is, so far, distinctly unviable at, now, 7G10L albeit on few races. UK win stats negative. Stake 0.74 pts - WON +Nil (Low computed stake, little gain would have been banked.)
No multiples, I think - or yes, 'for luck,' alternatively, but with no single bet, I wondered? On balance, a reluctant 'no,' I decided. (Correctly.)
B-List
OI AUSSIE (F/c 13/1) D's (A-List) record viable; one of 2 in the B-List that is. UK Win stat definite negative, however. Stake 1.39 pts - LOST -Nil
**OBTRUSIVE (F/c 2/1) Stake 2.02 pts - 2ND +Nil (About 1 pt gain would have been banked.)
*JACKASS (F/c 6/1) Excellent (A-List) record for David, proportionally: now, 27G11L. Stake 7.08 pts - LOST -Nil (Gain so far would have disappeared, and then some.)
*INSTALL(F/c 16/1) Stake 0.44 pts - WON +Nil (Small stake, little gain.)
No multiples, I first thought - then I thought a Place Double on Oi Aussie & Jackass, on my stats, reasonably might be 'value.' A hybrid Place Treble with these plus Bennerkens, also, I thought might work out. (I did these 'for luck' at a token stakes level.) NET LOSS -6.87 (Did Place Doubles & Treble) + 2 Xtras) Better luck here could have redeemed the situation. Hey ho. But I went for the value option, so mustn't grumble.
*3 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) - 2XWON 1XLOST & **2 races in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - BOTH PLACED. 2 outright winners from 5, slightly above average.
General race stats: Worst: **TWO FUHR ONE/2ND; Best: *BANNERKENS/WON.
My A-List Base Stake is assessed as 32 (frozen presently); B-List 13 pts (likewise).
Hope you had good luck!

Wednesday, June 18, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

Hong Kong 18 June Preview
Base Stake 11 pts
R1 No.4 LUCKY QUALITY 2.46 pts
R4 N2 OH SHAN BRAVE 0.86 pts
R7 N1 LUCKY WINNER 1.01 pts
R8 N9 IRON FIST 0.64 pts
Good luck!

Wednesday, June 18, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

RSA Scottsville Preview
I can recommend RSA punting. Despite my almost total lack of knowledge of RSA racing, I seem to do better than I have any right to expect. But I am only betting at token levels at the moment in an effort to build up my funds in the relevant account with minimal risk. Taking along view, in other words.
Today, I had already backed two of David's picks before I knew he had made selections:
Base Stake 34 pts (which tells you I am doing as well at these markets on my own as I am on the Aussie racing via David's tips - which is saying something, no?).
R3. JEWELIUS CAESOUR Capped at 34 pts (from marginally more)
R6 ANIMATED 7.80 pts
I have them as part of a 4-Fold Place accummulator as well @ 9 pts.
Sorry, I don't have time to preview David's two other selections this time.
Good luck!

Wednesday, June 18, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

RSA Scottsville 18 June Results
"I seem to do better than I have any right to expect," I observed in my preview & today turned into a case in point.
Today, I had already backed two of David's picks before I knew he had made selections:
Base Stake 34 pts (which tells you I am doing as well at these markets on my own as I am on the Aussie racing via David's tips - which is saying something, no?).
R3. JEWELIUS CAESOUR Stake: Capped at 34 pts (from marginally more)- 2ND +5.40 pts.
R6 ANIMATED Stake 7.80 pts - NON RUN
I had these also within a 4-Fold Place accum. for 9 pts = NET GAIN +2.70 pts (which would have been more but, in a mix up, I included a wrong horse/LOST in part of the bet that took 3 pts off what should have been my gain and, of course, stopped me actually winning more, too.
My other picks were:
SMART BANKER - WON +4.90 pts
CATCH HER DRIFT - 2ND +1.10 pts
Hope you had good luck!

Thursday, June 19, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

Ascot Results (sans Preview) 18 June
These wonderful racing occasions are usually difficult from a punting point of view I find. I try to just enjoy them and not worry too much about my flutters.
I tend to try to risk just one stake to kick off the day with and then survive the rest of it, if possible, on the back of a series of successful bets, each reinvesting the winnings so far - to a ceiling determined by the original stats adjusted stake levels. The hope is that success follows success through to a nice healthy profit on the day. That is to say the 1st bet would be well below the ceiling and the final one close or at the ceiling for that bet.
But, of course, quite often a failure in the middle scuppers the programme and forces me to commit a second injection of funds to keep the ball rolling. Today was one of those nearly successful days I seem to be getting too frequently for my liking lately. Something like win, win, win, lose, damn! conveys the conveyor belt approach of it.
Two of David's Ascot selections were in my own list already: DUKE OF MARMALADE/WON & BANKABLE/LOST (5th).
As regards HEAVEN SENT/2ND, I did not have it in my list but D's Aussie results record was viable on its race category: 93Gains47Losses.
STIMULATION/LOST was not favoured by a viable record on D's part: 36Gains28Losses. Also, it was in what I call my "dreaded" race category, on which I rarely do Win bets. My preview, had I done one, would have recommended caution on that selection (or rejection).
Re BANKABLE/LOST, D's record was an excellent 75G31L. But it was badly drawn, worked wonders to achieve 5th and - coming as it did half way through the probramme - sent my betting strategy for the day down the tubes there and then.
I am finding the current period a daily source of frustration. 'Pee'd off' sums up my present state of mind as regards racing. But it will pass.
Hope you did OK!

Thursday, June 19, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 19 Preview
David's records on today's race categories in the main are but mildly encouraging. If he is on form, the day could go well. But in over-cautious mode, I am inclined to let today go largely unbacked, especially as so many selections fall within my dodgy win bet categories. Not a day for win bets, I feel. Or for multiples. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. As a David supporter, I hope I am, of course.
A-List
**JACKSON HILL Best (Forecast 11/4) David's record on few races is, so far, unviable at 4Gains3Losses. UK win stats both negative, also on few races. I always think of my * & ** category place bets as for 1 of 2 places rather than 3. On this basis, you bet on this best selection on faith in David's judgment. Ordinarily I would, but I am not happy with my cash flow today. So no bet. Stake would be 5.57 pts -
**CHICKEN BOB Value (F/c 11/4) D.s record is good at 113G72L, but borderline on viability, even so. UK Win stat negative. Stake 7.50 pts to Win (but on my UK win stat, logically, I should abstain). Bank at about 100 (I am behind in my record keeping) -
SEQUALO MORN (F/c 5/2) D's record is today's best at an excellent 123G60L. But my UK win stat is a negative at 54W74L. Stake Capped at 32 pts (from 42.51) Too high for me but this seems to be today's most obvious place bet going by my stats -
*PASSAGE MAKER (F/c 5/2) D's record 84G49L, again borderline on viability. UK Win stat is a reasonable 44W54L. But the other UK stat puts it into the "dreaded" race category. Stake 18.31 pts. (Seems a bit high) -
No multiples.
B-List
**WESTERN STANDARD (F/c 2/1) D's (A-List) record the same as Chicken Bob; one of 2 in the B-List that is. UK Win stat definite negative, however. Big field (13). Stake 1.95 pts -
**SECOND SHOW (F/c 13/2) Big field. Stake 0.27 pts -
*WHITE BANNER (F/c 5/2) D's record as for Chicken Bob. Field of 8 runners (Note the danger of its dropping to 7) Stake 2.82 pts -
4th selection is a non-runner
No multiples.
*2 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) & **4 races in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - .
General race stats: Worst: **JACKSON HILL (!) (if I overlook on how few races my stats are based); Best: SEQUALO MORN.
My A-List Base Stake is frozen at 32; B-List at13 pts.
Good luck!

Thursday, June 19, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

Stats update into 19 June
A-List Value Selection Bank stands at 95 pts (begun at 26 pts)
"Best" selections excellent at 240Gains104Losses
A-List Value selections (including those from before the inception of the B-List) unviable so far at 184Gains154Losses
Good luck!

Thursday, June 19, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 19 Results
Well done David! About the only thing I got right today was JACKSON HILL/LOST. But I got my just deserts: I missed CHICKEN BOB/WON another winner of the A-List Value bet! At least, I seem to be right about the way to routinely back that daily selection. (It's main function, I think, is its value to multiples on winning days i.e., do a win single, & include in place multiples.)
A-List
**JACKSON HILL Best (Forecast 11/4) David's record on few races is, so far, unviable at, now, 4Gains4Losses. UK win stats both negative, also on few races. I always think of my * & ** category place bets as for 1 of 2 places rather than 3. On this basis, you backed this best selection on faith in David's judgment. Ordinarily I would have, but was unhappy with my cash flow today. Stake would have been 5.57 pts - LOST -Nil
**CHICKEN BOB Value (F/c 11/4) D.s record is good at 113G72L, but borderline on viability, even so. UK Win stat negative. Stake 7.50 pts to Win (but on my UK win stat, logically, I should abstain I thought) - WON +Nil. Bank increased to 99
SEQUALO MORN (F/c 5/2) D's record was today's best at, now, an excellent 124G60L. But my UK win stat is a negative at 54W74L. Stake Capped at 32 pts (from 42.51) Too high for me but this seemed to be today's most obvious place bet going by my stats - WON +0.33 (!) (I just emptied my account balance on it of 3.31 pts & went to bed)
*PASSAGE MAKER (F/c 5/2) D's record 84G49L, again borderline on viability. UK Win stat is a reasonable 44W54L. But the other UK stat puts it into the "dreaded" race category. Stake 18.31 pts. (Seemed a bit high. Oops) - 2ND +Nil. (The gain here would have been 34.79 pts as it SP'd at 9.20)
No multiples.
B-List
**WESTERN STANDARD (F/c 2/1) D's (A-List) record the same as Chicken Bob; one of 2 in the B-List that is. UK Win stat definite negative, however. Big field (13). Stake 1.95 pts - WON +Nil
**SECOND SHOW (F/c 13/2) Big field. Stake 0.27 pts - LOST -Nil
*WHITE BANNER (F/c 5/2) D's record as for Chicken Bob. Field of 8 runners (Note the danger of its dropping to 7) Stake 2.82 pts - WON +Nil
4th selection is a non-runner
No multiples.
*2 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) - WON & PLACED & **4 races in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - .2 X WON, 2 X LOST - Overall 3 winners from 6, better than average
General race stats: Worst: **JACKSON HILL/LOST; Best: SEQUALO MORN/WON.
My A-List Base Stake is frozen at 32; B-List at13 pts.
Hope you had good luck!

Thursday, June 19, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

Thursday, June 19, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

ASCOT 19 June Preview
Quick impressions
MICHITA - Quite well supported but dodgy predictive difficulty reading. I would not be backing it myself.
YEATS - Several opposing Naps. Keyte has not Napped it and Newmarket has an opposing selection. I have excluded it.
UNNEFER - Dodgy predictive difficulty reading. Seriously opposed, but it is Newmarket's Nap. I have excluded it.
GRANSTON - Dodgy predictive difficulty reading. Opposed by Newmarket.
Verdict: No bets for me. Races to enjoy but involvement too highly speculative for me today.
Good luck!

Thursday, June 19, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

ASCOT 19 June Results
MICHITA - Quite well supported but dodgy predictive difficulty reading - WON @ I think 10/3
YEATS - Several opposing Naps. Keyte has not Napped it and Newmarket has an opposing selection - WON @ I think 11/8
UNNEFER - Dodgy predictive difficulty reading. Seriously opposed, but it is Newmarket's Nap - LOST
GRANSTON - NO RUN
Verdict: No bets for me, but I did think the 1st two could well win (DID) and thought it possible the 3rd could. (DIDN'T)
Hope you had good luck!

Friday, June 20, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 20 Preview
I am unsure what to make of David's records on today's race categories. The B-List ones are good-to-strong but all in big fields (well, 1 is a 7-runner race on which I, also, don't double computed stakes). The A-List are good (with 1 exception) but only border on viability; however they are all in standard fields. The Forecast odds range from 9/4 to 10/1, which puts a tipster on his metal for results as they are collectively dodgy for singles success, but more especially, for multiples. The "Best" selection is again at the weakest end on general stats, the strongest of which is in the B-List! Going by computed stakes levels, I am inclined to make a profit on REIGN AND RULE/WON if possible (resulted after I typed this) and chance the A-List Best and Value selections simply on faith in David's judgment and leave it at that.
A-List
**DAZZLING DAPHNE Best (Forecast 4/1) David's record on relatively few races is, so far, bordering on viable at 23Gains14Losses. UK win stats both negative on few races. I do always think of my * & ** category place bets as for 1 of 2 places rather than 3. On this basis, you bet on this best selection on faith in David's judgment. Stake 7.17 pts -
**VOODOO STAR Value (F/c 6/1) D.s record is good at 114G72L, but borderline on viability, even so. UK Win stats negative. Stake 2.43 pts to Win (but on my UK win stat, logically, I should abstain). Bank at 99 pts -
**TINSLEY (F/c 6/1) D's record is the same as Voodoo Star. Likewise my UK win stats (13W17L & 24W40L). Stake 3.64 pts -
No multiples.
B-List
REIGN AND RULE (F/c 7/2) D's (A-List) record is the best of all, albe it on few races: now, 12Gains1Loss. UK Win stats emphatically positive, too. Big field (13). Stake Capped at 13 (from 2510.80!!!!) - WON +1.30 (Profit instead on 2510.80 pts would have been nice!)
**REGAL ACADEMY (F/c 10/1) Big field. Stake 0.35 pts -
JE SUIS ROCKSTAR (F/c 5/1) D's record is excellent for A-List selections: 62G22L. UKWin stats positive and negative respectively. Big field. Stake 4.05 pts -
NORSE CODE (F/c 9/4) D's record for A-List selections an excellent: 124G60L. UK Win stats positive and negative respectively. 7 runner field.
No multiples.
*No races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) & **4 races (2 marginally) in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) -
General race stats: Worst: **DAZZLING DAPHNE (!) (if I overlook on how few races my stats are based) in a deadheat with **REGAL ACADEMY; Best: (emphatically) REIGN AND RULE/WON.
My A-List Base Stake is frozen at 32; B-List at13 pts.
Good luck!

Friday, June 20, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

PS to June 20 Preview
Stake for NORSE CODE 4.84 pts
Good luck!

Friday, June 20, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 19 Results
I was unsure what to make of David's records on today's race categories. The B-List ones were good-to-strong but all in big fields (well, 1 was a 7-runner race on which I, also, don't double computed stakes). The A-List records were good (with 1 exception) but only bordered on viability; however all were in standard fields. The Forecast odds ranged from 9/4 to 10/1, which puts a tipster on his metal for results as they are collectively dodgy for singles success, but more especially, for multiples. The "Best" selection was again at the weak end on general stats, the strongest of which was in the B-List! Going by computed stakes levels, I was inclined to make a profit on REIGN AND RULE/WON if possible [resulted after I first typed this] and chance the A-List Best and Value selections on faith in David's judgment and leave it at that. In fact, after the Best went down, I sucked myself into also chancing JE SUIS ROCKSTAR/LOST & NORSE CODE/LOST. Plan A proved best option, not for the 1st time!
A-List
**DAZZLING DAPHNE Best (Forecast 4/1) David's record on relatively few races is, so far, bordering on viable at, now, 23Gains15Losses. UK win stats both negative on few races. I do always think of my * & ** category place bets as for 1 of 2 places rather than 3. On this basis, you would bet on this best selection on faith in David's judgment. Stake 7.17 pts - LOST -7.17. Exerted perhaps too much early, came back with further effort late on but besieged by a couple of closers into 4th.
**VOODOO STAR Value (F/c 6/1) D.s record is good at 114G72L, but borderline on viability, even so. UK Win stats negative. Stake 2.43 pts to Win (but on my UK win stat, logically, I should abstain - but lately expensive when I've done so!). Bank at 99 pts - LOST -2.43. Led then swamped well beat.
**TINSLEY (F/c 6/1) D's record is the same as Voodoo Star. Likewise my UK win stats (13W17L & 24W40L). Stake 3.64 pts - LOST -Nil. Led first, ended bunched in with others out of the frame with every chance.
No multiples.
B-List
REIGN AND RULE (F/c 7/2) D's (A-List) record is the best of all, albeit on few races: now, 12Gains1Loss. UK Win stats emphatically positive. Big field (13). Stake Capped at 13 (from 2510.80!!!!) - WON +1.30 (Profit on 2510.80 would have been nice!) Came late to win. A closer, it seems.
**REGAL ACADEMY (F/c 10/1) Big field. Stake 0.35 pts - 2ND +Nil. Missed the race. Sorry.
JE SUIS ROCKSTAR (F/c 5/1) D's record is excellent for A-List selections: 62G22L. UKWin stats positive and negative respectively. Big field. Stake 4.05 pts - LOST -4.05. 4th, in that time honoured sad way of all good selections in big fields.
NORSE CODE (F/c 9/4) D's record for A-List selections an excellent: 124G60L. UK Win stats positive and negative respectively. 7 runner field. Stake 4.84 - 3RD -1.49 (I emptied account balance only). Ran all right in 3rd most of the way, got unbalanced just after the final bend, jockey took a while to reorganise, then did not show excessive vigour, I thought, to hold on to 2nd place as overtaken just prior to the line. Not the jockey's finest ever, I would say.
No multiples.
*No races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) & **4 races (2 marginally) in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - 1PL(incl.0W)3L. Worse than average.
General race stats: Worst: **DAZZLING DAPHNE/LOST in a deadheat for this with **REGAL ACADEMY/2ND; Best: REIGN AND RULE/WON.
My A-List Base Stake is frozen at 32; B-List at13 pts.
Hope you had good luck!

Friday, June 20, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

Ascot 20 June Preview
*CAPTAIN WEBB (Forecast 13/2) Strictly on stats, this selection has the best chance of the 4. However, it is in my "dreaded" category for win bets. Additionally, being up against a paper fav F/c at 6/4 means, theoretically, it could be competing seriously for just 1of the 3 places. Big field (13).
*HEBRIDEAN (F/c 4/1) On stats this has the 2nd best chance. Two of my favourite tipsters oppose it, however. Also it's in the "dreaded" win bet category.
**MONTE ALTO (F/c 5/1) Big field. "Near as dammit" category race. No less than 8 selections tipped up from it in the Racing Post selections box. (I look at nothing over 5, personally, preferrably less.) A lottery betting snip?
**CARRIBEAN SUNSET (F/c 12/1). Nobody has selected it from the Selection Box tipsters (15 tipsters) which isn't too promising. Pricewise, a very popular tipster of runners at big prices, has gone for a rival at F/c 8/1 (Psalm).
Verdict: On difficult punting days, most races seem to be anybody's guess for winners. It would seem Win bets are best as a policy, rather than To Place. You need the wins to put you into viability when they come up. You probably won't get it from hitting enough of the lower 'place-er' gains.
Good luck!

Friday, June 20, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

Ascot 20 June Results
*CAPTAIN WEBB (Forecast 13/2) Strictly on stats, this selection had the best chance of the 4 (not allowing of likely market order). However, it was in my "dreaded" category for win bets. Additionally, being up against a paper fav F/c at 6/4/WON meant, theoretically, it could be competing seriously for just 1 of the 3 places. Big field (13) - LOST -Nil. Tried to make all long enough to excite, but faded out of the frame. ... in sharp contrast to Hebridian (except as regards result).
*HEBRIDEAN (F/c 4/1) On stats this had the 2nd best chance. Two of my favourite tipsters opposed it, however/2ND & LOST. Also it's in the "dreaded" win bet category - LOST -Nil. Held up but, then ... now't very much.
**MONTE ALTO (F/c 5/1) Big field. "Near as dammit" category race. No less than 8 runners had been tipped to win in the Racing Post, only half of them by one tipster each. (I look at no prospective selection for my list tipped up by over 5, preferrably less.) A lottery betting snip? - LOST -Nil. Had been competing for favouritism in the betting, actually, but just didn't make it in the race. Never nearer than about 6th, I think.
**CARRIBEAN SUNSET (F/c 12/1). Nobody had selected it from the Selection Box tipsters (15) which wasn't too promising. Pricewise, a very popular tipster of runners at big prices, had gone for a rival at F/c 8/1 (Psalm/LOST) - 3RD +Nil. (SP was 16/1 to Win) Beat the favourite, Spacious, into 4th. Good run.
Verdict: On difficult punting days like this, most races seem to be anybody's guess for winners. It would seem that Win bets are best as a policy option, rather than To Place. You need the extra gain of the fewer outright wins you get to ease you into viability over time, I suspect. (You probably won't hit enough of the lower 'place-er' gains to achieve viabilty.)
LAST WORD: I have learned to bet sparingly on these sorts of quality meetings. At the time of writing I am a little bit ahead today and very contented with that.
Hope you got enough out of Carribean Sunset to off-set any losses!

Saturday, June 21, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 21 Results
Good day with 6 gains (incl 3W)2Losses. Usually profitable. I see that I missed another A-List Value outright winner!
I am afraid I got tired and slept through it. (The vagaries of an virtually 24 hr. interest in racing!)
I'll catch up shortly on notes about how it would have looked in my usual preview.
Hope you did well!

Saturday, June 21, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

Ascot 21 June Preview
With every bunch of connections striving their damnedest to win at Ascot, the best of selections can fail. Thus multiples would seem a bad idea but my gut feeling on David's 4 is that they would be worth chancing. It would be a nice pay out if successful.
HONOLULU. D's record on Aussie racing is 3Gains1Loss. I have no UK Win stat as the race is off my scale with 7 runners F/c at under 8/1 in a Big Field! That F/c tells you how competitive the race is on paper. Newmarket opposes with a selection but the preponderance of opinion would seem to be in its favour.
SPANISH MOON & MARCHAND D'OR enjoy the same excellent record Aussie races in their category: 124G60. But my UK Win stat is a modest 54W74L.
Spanish Moon is in a standard field but Marchand D'Or is in a Big one. Newmarket supports the former and opposes the latter. Amongst the opposition on that one are 3 who regard two other horses as their "Next Best" bets of the day. It would seem that Spanish Moon has less on his plate of the two.
MAD RUSH is quite well supported including being Newmarket's Nap. The stats are OK without being over emphatic in its favour. Big field.
VERDICT: Well worth risking on any bets. My overall impression is that they are a sound collection of tips.
Good luck!

Saturday, June 21, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

PS re Ascot Preview
I have just re-calculated what I call MAD RUSH's race "Predictive Difficulty" based on my stats and it comes top of the four for best chance. But only marginally over Spanish Moon & Marchand d'Or.
Good luck!

Saturday, June 21, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 21 Results (no preview today)
A-List
*VIZARD Best (Forecast 9/10) David's record is now 115Gains74Losses. UK win stats both negative. Stake 23.15 pts - WON +Nil (Gain wd have been +4.63)
BEHOLD Value (F/c 2/1) D.s record is only OK at, now, 86G49L, as borderline on viability. A UK Win stat negative at 64W89L. Stake Capped at 14 pts (from 21.53) to Win. Bank at 97 pts - WON +Nil. Bank increased notionally by 35 (but then reduced by 26 to deduct the level I opened with) = 106. Very stisfactory indeed. So far, the Win bet policy on this category of D's selections appears to be working.
LIKABLE WILL (F/c 7/2) D's record is now 24G15L - 2ND +Nil
HARVARD (F/c 4/1) D's record 56G35L. Big field - 3RD +Nil
D's records were OK without been resoundingly endorsive. I think I would have been recommending no multiples. (Oops.)
B-List
On D's record, if anything, the stats were better on the B-List. In the event, it was a topsy turvey result - the 2 higher F/c odds selections (9/1 & 14/1) achieving a win and a place and the lower 2 (11/4 & 4/1) both losing. There were 2 x ** race category selections marginally.
I think I would have again favoured no multiples.
*1 race in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) - WON & **2 races (marginally) in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - I X WON 1 X LOST - Overall 2 outright winners from 3, better than average
General race stats: Worst: marginally, *VIZARD/WON; Best: marginally, BEHOLD/WON.
My A-List Base Stake is frozen at 32; B-List at13 pts.
Hope you had good luck!

Sunday, June 22, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

Ascot 21 June results
I didn't see the successful races. SPANISH MOON ran disappointingly, finishing last but one. My negative Win stat of 54W74L reflective.
MARCHAND D'OR came 5th or 6th in a big field in a group that was roundly eclipsed by near side (low draw) runners. Insufficient pace in his/her group may have done for him/her.
MAD RUSH was 2nd. Newmarket nearly successful with his Nap.
HONOLULU won @ 7/4 in a big field.
Verdict: One 2 from 4 successful, a break-even day would have been a likely outcome. Result very good, though, for such a difficult punting day. Pricewise got 1 placed from 5 selections - and him, I believe, THE popular tipster in the UK on value selections.
Hope you had good luck!

Sunday, June 22, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 22 Preview
David's records on today's A-List race categories are OK without being ringingly endorsing - but 3 are in Big fields and all of them are in either my * or ** categories. The computed stakes are at the low end of what might be hoped to inspire extra confidence. I am not inclined to go for multiples on them.
A-List
*HENRY JOSEPH Best (Forecast 6/4) David's record is 115Gains74Losses. My main UK win stat is mildly negative at 53W63L, call it 50/50ish. As always I think of my * & ** category place bets as competing for 1 of 2 places rather than 3. I would bet on this best selection on faith in David's judgment. Standard field. Stake 17.60 pts (indeed the highest computed for the A-List) -
**MARQUIS Value (F/c 13/4) D.s record is 95G66L, borderline on viability. UK Win stats negative. Big field. Stake 3.37 pts to Win. Bank at 106 pts -
*SIR SIENNA (F/c 13/4) D's record is the same as for Henry Joseph. Likewise my UK win stats. Big field. Stake 4.06 pts -
*STELLAR STAR (F/c 5/2) Ditto Big field Stake 5.28 pts -
No multiples.
B-List
Notably, DAUGHTER'S DEMAND (F/c 9/4) has the best general stats and computes a Capped stake of 13.00 pts (from 45.53) -
The weakest general stats are on FLOPITDOP (F/c 3/1) Big field, Stake 0.45 pts -
TILMUNDA (F/c 9/1) Stake 5.30 pts -
*KOOYONG ROAD (F/c 4/1) Stake 1.73 pts -
No multiples.
*4 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) & **1 race (2 marginally) in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) -
General race stats: Worst: FLOPITDOP; Best: DAUGHTER'S DEMAND.
My A-List Base Stake is frozen at 32; B-List at 13 pts.
I am inclined myself to restrict myself to single bets on the Best & Value selections and chance a hybrid place treble on those + Daughter's Demand.
Good luck!

Sunday, June 22, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 22 Results
David's records on today's A-List race categories were OK without being ringingly endorsing. My personal maxim 'The higher these computed stakes, the brighter the chances of gain,' whilst not always working out, is not bad as an indicator (about the A-List). As they were at the low end of what might inspire extra confidence, I was disinclined to go for main multiples today and became selective on singles.
A-List
*HENRY JOSEPH Best (Forecast 6/4) David's record is now 116Gains74Losses. Standard field. Stake 17.60 pts (the highest computed for the A-List) - 3RD @ 1.80 +4.68 (from a reduced stake of 5.85 - the gain would have been 14.08 on the full stake)
**MARQUIS Value (F/c 13/4) D.s record is now 95G67L. Big field. Stake 3.37 pts to Win - LOST -3.37. Win Bank reduced to 103.
*SIR SIENNA (F/c 13/4) D's record is the same as for Henry Joseph. Likewise my UK win stats. Big field. Stake 4.06 pts - LOST -Nil
*STELLAR STAR (F/c 5/2) Ditto Big field Stake 5.28 pts - 3RD @ 1.50 (Gain would have been 2.64)
No multiples.
B-List
Once again the higher F/c odds achieved gains and the lower odds ones failed!
DAUGHTER'S DEMAND (F/c 9/4) had the best general stats and computed a Capped stake of 13.00 pts (from 45.53) - LOST -Nil (I decided to limit myself to the Place Treble on this one.)
The weakest general stats are on FLOPITDOP (F/c 3/1) Big field, Stake 0.45 pts - LOST -Nil
TILMUNDA (F/c 9/1) Stake 5.30 pts - 2ND @ 2.10 +Nil (Gain would have been 5.83) Actually, my general stats on this were pretty good. 2nd best overall. I think it would have been worth adding this to the Place Treble to make it a 4-Fold. I overlooked that, not that it would have succeeded as it turned out.
*KOOYONG ROAD (F/c 4/1) Stake 1.73 pts - 3RD @ 1.80 (Gain would have been 1.38)
No multiples.
*4 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) - 3 PL (incl.0W)1L; & **1 race in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - LOST Overall, no outright winner from 5, below average.
General race stats: Worst: FLOPITDOP/LOST; Best: DAUGHTER'S DEMAND/LOST.
My A-List Base Stake is frozen at 32; B-List at 13 pts.
I chanced an 'across-lists' place treble the A-List Best and Value selections + Daughter's Demand.
My overall profit was just 0.31 pts! (I would have made a gain of 2.05 pts from investing all the computed stakes but at the Capped level on that one.) No regrets. Hope you enjoyed good luck!

Sunday, June 22, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 22 Preview
David's records on today's A-List race categories are OK but all border-line as regards viability. None is in a Big field but 3 of them are in either my * or ** category. Forecast odds are in the range 7/4 to 5/1. Except for HYSON GREEN, the computed stakes are too low to inspire extra confidence.
It is worth repeating, and stressing, that David's records in their variability are reflective of differences in predictive difficulty through the range of race types. I maintain that his perspicacity level will have been broadly equal through that range. It is just that, obviously, a 2-horse race is 'easy' as compared with, say, a 20-horse race in predictive difficulty. David strikes me as the consistent type! He's doing fine across the range but, inevitably, will be doing less well in terms of results in some categories.
A-List
*DANCER'S TALE Best (Forecast 5/1) David's record is 73Gains51Losses. My main UK win stats are strongly negative. As always I think of my * & ** category place bets as competing for 1 of 2 places rather than 3. I would be betting on this best selection on faith in David's judgment. Standard field. Stake 2.20 pts. I may leave this one alone -
**REGAL COURT Value (F/c 5/2) D.s record is 95G67L. UK Win stats strongly negative. Stake 4.19 pts to Win. Bank at 103 pts -
HYSON GREEN (F/c 7/4) D's record is 39G29L. My UK win stats 50/50. Stake 18.40 pts -
*I'M LEAVING (F/c 5/1) D'S record the same as Dancer's Tale. Ditto UK Win stats. Stake 2.20 pts -
No multiples.
B-List
Notably, TOY BREAKA (F/c 13/4) has the best general stats and computes a Capped stake of 13.00 pts (from 54.56) -
NITONIC (F/c 13/4) Stake 2.99 pts -
*ARGUNG KING (F/c 11/2) 7 runner field. Stake 1.31 pts -
MARSHAL BLUCHER (F/c 13/4) Stake 1.50 pts -
The stakes computations on a Base Stake of 13 pts are, actually, better than they seem compared with the A-List stakes. But no multiples for me today. Or perhaps a Place Treble (without Argung King) might be chanced at a pinch.
*3 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) & **1 race (marginally) in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) -
General race stats: Worst: DANCER'S TALE (!); Best: TOY BREAKA.
My A-List Base Stake is frozen at 32; B-List at 13 pts.
VERDICT: I am inclined to try to profit from Toy Breaka and chance the Win bet on Regal Court. Then call it a day as I am too tired to follow the racing through after Toy Breaka runs.
Good luck!

Monday, June 23, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

PS re June 22 Preview
There seems to be disagreement between forecasters about DANCER'S TALE. I use Racing and Sports forecasters customarily and they have it F/c as 5/1. But Way2Bet have it as 2.80. Current odds I have seen at Centrebet suggest that the latter price is closer to being appropriate.
My stakes computation in the preview is based on the 5/1 price which, for continuity's sake, I have to stick with. The stake on Way2Bet's odds computes at almost 32 points.
Obviously DANCING TALE's status in my preview as 'worst general stats' nominee is highly suspect.
This kind of thing happens quite often I expect. The stats can be wrong by anything: say, by 1/3rd or more. I think they are still useful, though. Gives you something objective to go on and may be near enough correct for practical purposes.
Good luck!

Monday, June 23, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 23 Results
David's records on today's A-List race categories were OK but all border-line as regards viability. Except for HYSON GREEN/WON, the computed stakes were too low to inspire extra confidence. I was not inclined to go for multiples on them. In the event, the all-up would have succeeded, the Value selection failed to win when 2nd and my suggested treble in the B-List would have failed because the odd-one-out proved the wrong choice. I ended up 0.37 pts down on what should have been a good day for me.
Back-to-back days when David's results buck the trends indicated by my stats would be a sign that punting conditions are on the improve as well as that David is in particularly good form. However, it seems to continue a topsy-turvey sort of season when it is difficult to get any sort of momentum going.
A-List
*DANCER'S TALE Best (Forecast 5/1) David's record is 73Gains51Losses. My main UK win stats are strongly negative. As always I think of my * & ** category place bets as competing for 1 of 2 places rather than 3. I would be betting on this best selection on faith in David's judgment. Standard field. Stake 2.20 pts - 2ND +0.66 (The Racing and Sports F/c favourite, DANCIN SCHOOL, won)
**REGAL COURT Value (F/c 5/2) D.s record is 95G67L. UK Win stats strongly negative. Stake 4.19 pts to Win. Bank at 103 pts - 2ND -4.19 Bank reduced to 99
HYSON GREEN (F/c 7/4) D's record is 39G29L. My UK win stats 50/50. Stake 18.40 pts - WON +Nil (Gain would have been 14.72)
*I'M LEAVING (F/c 5/1) D'S record the same as Dancer's Tale. Ditto UK Win stats. Stake 2.20 pts - 2ND +Nil (Gain would have been 0.66)
No multiples.
B-List
Notably, TOY BREAKA (F/c 13/4) has the best general stats and computes a Capped stake of 13.00 pts (from 54.56) - 3RD +3.16 on reduced stake of 10.53
NITONIC (F/c 13/4) Stake 2.99 pts - LOST -Nil
*ARGUNG KING (F/c 11/2) Stake 1.31 pts - WON +Nil (Gain would have been 0.66)
MARSHAL BLUCHER (F/c 13/4) Stake 1.50 pts - 2ND +Nil (Gain would have been 0.45)
The stakes computations on a Base Stake of 13 pts are, actually, better than they seem compared with the A-List stakes. But no multiples for me. Perhaps a Place Treble without Argung King might be chanced at a pinch speculatively/LOST -Nil
*3 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) - 3PL (incl.1W) 0L & **1 race (marginally) in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - PLACED. Overall 1 outright winner from 4, call it 'average.'
General race stats: Worst: DANCER'S TALE/2ND (Actually I'M LEAVING/2ND deaded-heated for this category); Best: TOY BREAKA/3RD.
My A-List Base Stake is frozen at 32; B-List at 13 pts.
VERDICT: My chief regret is not backing HYSON GREEN/WON: the computed stake was encouraging enough for a bet, really. On another day I would have backed it. It was a pity too that REGAL COURT/2ND only placed. (I have a sentimental attachment to this horse in that my first owned home was in a private road called Regal Court.)
Hope you had extra good luck!

Tuesday, June 24, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 24 Preview
David's records on today's A-List race categories are excellent (except on SCOTCH GEM which is itself good as border-line regarding viability). But the "Best" is in a Big field and 2 are in either my * or ** category. Forecast odds are in the range 11/8 - 5/2 which indicates stronger expectations on selections than usual of late. However, my UK win stats are not terrific - but I trust them less than usual today owing to what I call 'quirkiness.' The computed stakes inspire extra confidence (3 Capped) but, even so, I am unsure on the wisdom of placing any win bets (even the Value one). I ought to be inclined to go for multiples on these selections but see below. On paper it could be a good day for the A-List.
It is worth repeating, and stressing, that David's records in their variability are reflective of differences in what I call 'predictive difficulty' through the range of race categories. I maintain that his perspicacity will have been broadly even through the range. It is just that, obviously, a 2-horse race is 'easy' as compared with, say, a 20-horse one in 'predictive difficulty.' David strikes me as the consistent type! He's doing fine across the range but, inevitably, will be doing less well in some categories. A poor record, if quoted, implies no criticism whatsoever. A fact is merely a bald-headed fellow.
A-List
AT MY COMMAND Best (Forecast 2/1) David's record is 75Gains31Losses. My main UK win stat is mildly negative. Big field, unusual in that 4 competitors are F/c 13/1. Danger of an unwanted turn-up exists. Stake Capped at 32 pts (from 64.62) -
FIRST EDITION Value (F/c 5/2) D.s record is 124G60L. Main UK Win stat a negative 55W74L. 8 runners. Danger of dropping to 7 or less exists. Stake Capped at 32 pts (from 45.95) to Win. Bank at 99. I have found circa 2/1 dangerous for win bets. So often they disappoint. I am inclined to go 5% of bank to win on this one on balance but also do a Place Only bet -
**SCOTCH GEM (F/c 13/8) Field of 8. D's record is 96G67L, not yet viable. My main UK win stat is negative at 8W14L. As always I think of my * & ** category place bets as competing for 1 of 2 places rather than 3. Stake 19.31 pts (looks quirkily high) -
*VALIDATED (F/c 11/8) D'S record is 27G15L. UK Win stats negative, the lesser one strongly. Stake Capped at 32 (from 60.81) -
Just enough negatives to give me an uneasy feeling something will let the side down. With high-ish stakes contemplated on singles, on reflection, no multiples. (But I am betting from an uncomfortable cash-flow position. I shall be hoping early bets bank-roll later risk.)
B-List
OUR JAZZXAAR (F/c 7/2) Quirky positive UK Win stats. D's record 56G35L. Stake 5.55 pts -
*LAGO DE ORO (F/c 5/2) Stake 2.78 pts -
**FRENCH FILLE (F/c 8/1) Stake 0.90 pts -
**ORCONFUSED (F/c 6/1) Possible Big field. 1 of 2 under F/c 8/1. High total F/c under 14/1 (11). Stake 3.66 pts -
No multiples.
*2 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) & **3 races in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - .
General race stats: Worst: LAGO DE ORO; Best: OUR JAZZXAAR (if I accept quirky stats at face value).
My A-List Base Stake is frozen at 32; B-List at 13 pts.
VERDICT: I am inclined, reluctantly, to disregard Scotch Gem, Validated and Lago De Oro, the earlier races. Try then to profit from Our Jazzxaar to a degree, giving me confidence to chance win & place bets on First Edition. If successful thus far, I may disregard the Best selection as the
safe option. If unsuccessful by then, chance it to save the day.
Good luck!

Tuesday, June 24, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 24 Results
David's records on today's A-List race categories were excellent (except on SCOTCH GEM/LOST). But the "Best"/3RD was in a Big field (but reduced by withdrawals) and 2 were in either my * or ** category/NON RUN & LOST. Forecast odds were in the range 11/8 - 5/2 which indicated stronger expectations on selections by odds compilers than had been usual of late. However, my UK win stats were not terrific - though I trusted them less today than usual owing to what I call 'quirkiness.' The computed stakes inspired extra confidence (3 Capped/WON,3RD & NON RUN) but, even so, I was unsure on the wisdom of placing any win bets (even on the Value selection/WON). I ought to have been inclined towards multiples on this A-List. On paper it looked like it could be a good day for the A-List. In the event, a loser and a non-runner did not quite bear out these favourable impressions.
A-List
AT MY COMMAND Best (Forecast 2/1) David's record is, now, 76Gains31Losses. The Big field was unusual in that 4 competitors were F/c 13/1, however withdrawals brought it down to a standard in size. Danger of an unwanted turn-up existed and the winner, indeed, SP'd @ 7.90. Stake Capped at 32 pts (from 129.24 i.e., revised due to the smaller field) but I emptied my account balance only on it with a stake of 8.91 - 3RD @ 1.20 +1.78 (It would have been a gain of 6.40 at the full Capped level & rather more at the uncapped one! Hey ho.)
FIRST EDITION Value (F/c 5/2) D.s record is, now ,125G60L. Stake Capped at 32 pts (from 45.95) to Win. Bank at 99. I have found circa 2/1 dangerous for win bets. So often they disappoint. I went 5% of bank to win on this one but did not do a Place Only bet as the price was very low - WON @ 1.90 +4.22 on a stake slightly less than 5% of bank. (Gain would have been 28.80 on the Capped stake & a Place Only bet of 32 points would have provided an additional gain of just 3.20. I think I was right not to chance it.) Bank - normally used just as a monitoring device, here - increased by 29 (i.e., the notional gain on the unused Capped stake) to 128.
**SCOTCH GEM (F/c 13/8) Field of 8. D's record is, now, 96G68L, not yet viable. As always I regarded my * & ** category place bets as notionally competing for 1 of just 2 places rather than the actual 3. Stake computed at 19.31 pts but looked, I thought, quirkily high) - LOST -Nil
*VALIDATED (F/c 11/8) NO RUN
Just enough negatives gave me an uneasy feeling that something will let the side down. With high-ish stakes contemplated on singles, on reflection, no multiples. A Place Double on the Best & Value selections would not have gained much for the risk involved. I think I made the right decision not to chance it.
B-List
OUR JAZZXAAR (F/c 7/2) Quirky positive UK Win stats. D's record not affected from 56G35L because I only update from A-List results. Stake 5.55 pts - LOST -5,55 (4th: beaten for 3rd by a 35/1 shot, alas; always a bit galling; but, feeling genuinely happy for an outsider's connections, I reckon, is the civilised attitude to have in this situation.)
*LAGO DE ORO (F/c 5/2) Stake 2.78 pts - 2ND @ 1.60 +Nil (Gain would have been 1.67)
**FRENCH FILLE (F/c 8/1) Stake 0.90 pts - 3RD @ 2.70 +Nil (Gain would have been 1.53)
**ORCONFUSED (F/c 6/1) - NO RUN
No multiples.
*2 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) - 1PL(0W)0L1NR & **3 races in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - 1PL(incl.0W)1L1NR - Overall no outright winner from 3 which ran: below average result.
General race stats: Worst: LAGO DE ORO/2ND; Best: OUR JAZZXAAR/LOST.
My A-List Base Stake is frozen at 32; B-List at 13 pts.
VERDICT: I was inclined, reluctantly, to disregard Scotch Gem/LOST, Validated/NO RUN and Lago De Oro/2ND, the earlier races. I failed to profit from Our Jazzaar/LOST(4th), giving me confidence only to chance a win bet on First Edition/WON. Because unsuccessful in profitting so far, I did chance a Place bet on AT MY COMMAND/3RD to save the day. Net Gain just +0.45 pts. The break-even outcome was achieved by not acting on a strong temptation to bet on SCOTCH GEM. Following on from limited gains, I decided to ignore the remaining B-List runners, too, which led to the more or less break-even, rather than gainful, outcome I got.
Hope you enjoyed good luck!

Tuesday, June 24, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 25 Preview
David's records on today's race categories are just OK and no more. On paper, this seems to be a day for betting only on the Best bet and maybe not that one, too. I fear that betting across the board is likely to cause a loss. (I hope I'm wrong, of course!)
A-List
*ANA ME CORI Best (Forecast 7/2) David's record is 117Gains75Losses. My main UK win stat is mildly negative. Stake 7.63 pts -
**SHANGHAI LIL Value (F/c 11/1) D.s record is 96G68L. Big field. Main UK Win stat a negative 3W9L albeit on few races. As always I think of my * & ** category place bets as competing for 1 of 2 places rather than 3. Stake computes to just 0.45 pts to Win. Bank at 128. I am tempted to back at 5% of bank instead but I think I will let this one go -
AL MAHARA (F/c 5/2) D's record is 56G35L, not yet viable. My main UK win stat is negative at 14W21L. Stake 10.69 pts -
**PLANET ICE (F/c 5/2) D'S record is the same as for Ana Me Cori. Main UK Win stat strongly negative. Stake 11.15 pts -
No multiples. Assuming some selections let the side down, computed stake levels are so evenly modest as to almost guarantee loss, I feel.
B-List
**GODA GREY (F/c 25/1) Big field. Stake 0.12 pts -
**CATSEYE BEACH (F/c 15/4) Big field. Stake 2.34 pts -
WOOL ZONE (F/c 13/2) Stake 1.04 pts -
**JULIMAR BOY (F/c 6/1) Stake 1.73 pts -
No multiples.
*1 race in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) & **5 races (one or two marginally) in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) -
General race stats: Worst: SHANGHAI LIL; Best: WOOL ZONE.
My A-List Base Stake is still frozen at 32; B-List at 13 pts (I am on the point of updating these. They are off-bonk at present.)
VERDICT: It looks like a toss up sort of punting day. I won't be betting. I feel too tired tonight to stay up to monitor how things are going and am not free, alas, just to back everything early on and hope (which I've done before, successfully, many times).
Good luck!

Wednesday, June 25, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

Thursday, June 26, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 25 Results
David's records on today's race categories were just OK. On paper, this seemed to be a day for betting only on the Best bet and maybe not that one, too. I feared that betting across the board was likely to cause a loss. I'd hoped I was wrong, of course, but this time I wasn't. PLANET ICE was 2ND and virtually impossible to find. I did chance a small bet on CATSEYE BEACH/LOST because it had David's bets record of the day, now 93Gains48Losses.
A-List
*ANA ME CORI Best (Forecast 7/2) David's record is 117Gains75Losses. My main UK win stat is mildly negative. Stake 7.63 pts -
**SHANGHAI LIL Value (F/c 11/1) D.s record is 96G68L. Big field. Main UK Win stat a negative 3W9L albeit on few races. As always I think of
my * & ** category place bets as competing for 1 of 2 places rather than 3. Stake computes to just 0.45 pts to Win. Bank at 128. I am tempted to back at 5% of bank instead but I think I will let this one go -
AL MAHARA (F/c 5/2) D's record is 56G35L, not yet viable. My main UK win stat is negative at 14W21L. Stake 10.69 pts -
**PLANET ICE (F/c 5/2) D'S record is the same as for Ana Me Cori. Main UK Win stat strongly negative. Stake 11.15 pts - 2ND +Nil
No multiples. Assuming some selections let the side down, I judged that computed stake levels were so evenly modest as to almost guarantee loss.
B-List
**GODA GREY (F/c 25/1) Big field. Stake 0.12 pts -
**CATSEYE BEACH (F/c 15/4) Big field. Stake 2.34 pts - LOST -2.34
WOOL ZONE (F/c 13/2) Stake 1.04 pts -
**JULIMAR BOY (F/c 6/1) Stake 1.73 pts -
No multiples.
*1 race in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) - LOST & **5 races (one or two marginally) in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - 1 PLACED. Below average result.
General race stats: Worst: SHANGHAI LIL/LOST; Best: WOOL ZONE/LOST.
My A-List Base Stake is still frozen at 32; B-List at 13 pts (I am on the point of updating these. They are off-bonk at present.)
VERDICT: It had looked like a toss up sort of punting day. I lost just over 2 pts.
Hope you had good luck in some way!

Thursday, June 26, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 26 Preview
A-List
David's records are good (slightly less so on CYCLONE LARRY). However, the fields are big and my UK Win stats include significant negatives except on the Value selection's race category. And the latter is the only selection not included with my */ ** categories.
*CHINA BAY (Forecast 13/8) David's record is 113Gains76Losses. The main UK win stat is mildly negative. Big field. Stake 7.93 (worryingly low for a Best selection) -
RIGHTSON (Forecast 6/1) D's record is excellent: 27Gains10Losses, albeit on relatively few races. UK Win stats are both 50/50. Big field. Stake Capped at 13 pts to Win (from 61.51). Bank at 128 -
*&**CYCLONE LARRY (F/c 6/1) D's record is an unviable 40G29L. UK Win stats strongly negative. Big field. Stake 0.96 -
**COLLEONARD (F/c 7/2) D's record is 125G60L. Main UK Win stat strongly negative. Big field (13). Stake 9.48 -
No multiples.
*2 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L), & **2 (one doubled up) in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - .
General race stats: Worst: CYCLONE LARRY; Best: RIGHTSON.
My A-List Base Stake is still frozen at 32 pts.
VERDICT: To Win on RIGHTSON @ 5% of Bank and To Place @ 13 pts. That will be enough for me to risk today.
Good luck!

Thursday, June 26, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

Thursday, June 26, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 26 Results
A-List
David's records were good (slightly less so on CYCLONE LARRY/3RD). However, the fields were big and my UK Win stats included significant negatives - except on the Value selection's race category. And the latter was the only selection not included with my */ ** categories.
*CHINA BAY Best - NO RUN
RIGHTSON (Forecast 6/1) D's record is excellent: now, 27Gains11Losses, albeit on relatively few races. UK Win stats are both 50/50. Big field. Stake Capped at 13 pts to Win (from 61.51). Bank at 128 - LOST -8.44 Bank reduced to 115
*&**CYCLONE LARRY (F/c 6/1) D's record is an unviable (now) 41G29L. UK Win stats strongly negative. Big field. Stake 0.96 - 3RD +Nil
**COLLEONARD (F/c 7/2) D's record is now 125G61L. Main UK Win stat strongly negative. Big field (13). Stake 9.48 - LOST -Nil
No multiples.
*2 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) - 1PL1NR & **2 (one doubled up) in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - 1PL1L - No outright winner from 3. Below average.
General race stats: Worst: CYCLONE LARRY/3RD; Best: RIGHTSON/LOST.
My A-List Base Stake is still frozen at 32 pts.
VERDICT: To Win on RIGHTSON @ 5% of Bank (6.40 pts) and To Place @ 13 pts (I did what I call a Mop Up bet of 2.02 pts instead). That was enough for me to risk today. Forecast at 6/1, I knew this was probably chancy despite the favourable stats. I am pleased I reduced the Place bet.
Hope you had good luck!

Thursday, June 26, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 27 Preview
Just 2 of all David's records represented today (1 from each list) fall squarely in race categories of mine that may have achieved viability so far (which I take to be a ratio of 2 gains per 3 selections as a rule of thumb - probably, really, it needs to be a lot better than that - I am no mathematician!). All the A-List are in big fields (and 3 of the B-List), with the increased danger of turn-ups (though at least 1 from the A-List - the Value selection - may reduce to 12 or fewer). Forecast odds are circa 3/1 except for the Best selection which is itself extra interesting at an unusually high F/c odds of 11/1: but, thus, all are in the ball-park of 'risky' for, certainly, win bets (unless you feel strongly in their favour). As always David's picks may transcend the above impresssions, but on paper, this seems to be a tricky day. I fear that betting across the board is likely to cause a loss and I would think pretty well all bets are speculative to a degree that makes, certainly, multiples a dodgy option (though, of course, success may return very nice profits). Possibly do the all-up multiples but no single bets, alternatively? Anyway, the clearest message from all the above seems to be "low stakes today, folks!"
A-List
**KENSHE Best (Forecast 11/1) David's record is 52Gains41Losses. My UK win stats are negative (the main one strongly). Big field. As always I think of my * & ** category place bets as competing for 1 of 2 places rather than 3. Stake 0.99 pts (very low for a Best selection - caused by negatives in series & the high F/c odds) -
**SLIP OF THE TONGUE Value (F/c 11/4) D.s record is the same as for Kenshe (likewise my UK Win stats). Big field (that may reduce). Stake computes at 3.96 pts to Win (unaffected by the size of field - I only double stakes for Place bets in fields of 12 or less except at 7). Bank at 115. I shall probably chance this one -
**LIONS DEN (F/c 11/4) D's record is 118G76L, good but not yet viable. My main UK win stat is stronglt negative at 3W9L albeit on few races. Stake 2.42 pts -
*SMART PUNCH (F/c 7/2) D'S record is excellent at 93G47L. Main UK Win stat mildly negative (the other strongly so). Stake 10.06 pts. It would appear this is the bet to chance if being selective according to my numbers, but the computed stake is not that high, really. I am inclined to let it go -
No multiples. Assuming some selections let the side down, computed stake levels are so modest as to almost guarantee loss, I feel, based on my personal maxim of 'the bigger the computed stake, the better the chance of a place.'
B-List
WONKAVATOR (F/c 10/1) Big field. Stake 0.32 pts -
**SIMPLEST (F/c 11/2) Big field. Stake 0.76 pts -
CASSARDI (F/c 5/2) Stake 5.81 pts -
*PENNYCOME QUICK (F/c 16/1) Stake 0.22 pts -
No multiples.
*2 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) & **4 races (one or two marginally) in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) -
Purely on general race stats: Worst: LIONS DEN; Best: CASSARDI.
My A-List Base Stake is still frozen at 32; B-List at 13 pts (I am still on the point of updating these. They are off-bonk at present, unreflective of recent results, but probably by not more than 1, or at most, 2 pts.)
VERDICT: I shall just back the Value bet to win. Amongst the asterisked runners there should be 2 outright winners according to the average. The likeliest of these appears to be SMART PUNCH according to my numbers. Maybe the other will be the Best selection? Or the Value one? I am tempted to put those two plus Cassardi into a treble, actually. But, no. I'll just stick with Slip of the Tongue to win.
Good luck!

Friday, June 27, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 27 Results
Only 2 of David's records today (1 from each list) fell squarely in race categories of mine that may have achieved viability (which I take to need a results ratio of 2 gains & 1 loss per every 3 selections, as a rule of thumb, but probably, really, it needs to be a lot better than that for 'your actual' viability). All the A-List were in big fields (and 3 of the B-List), with the increased danger of turn-ups (though the A-List Value selection reduced to 12 or fewer & so did a couple of the B-List). A-List forecast odds were circa 3/1, except for the Best selection, which was itself extra interesting at an unusually high (but probably unreasonable, it now seems) F/c odds of 11/1: but, thus, theoretically, all were in the ball-park of 'risky' for win bets (unless you felt strongly in their favour). "As always David's picks may transcend the above impresssions, but on paper, this seems to be a tricky day," I wrote in my preview (but with an uneasy feeling that they might do, I should confess). "Anyway, the clearest message from all the above seems to be 'low stakes today, folks!,'" I added. In the event, it proved a better day than seemed likely on paper, but as there was a loser in each list, it would seem that multiples would have suffered, possibly fatally, depending on what mix was chanced.
A-List
**KENSHE Best (Forecast 11/1) David's record is, now, 54Gains41Losses. Big field. Stake 0.99 pts - WON +Nil (Gain would have been 0.20)
**SLIP OF THE TONGUE Value (F/c 11/4) D.s record is the same as for Kenshe (likewise my UK Win stats). Big field (that did reduce). Stake computes at 3.96 pts to Win (unaffected by the size of field - I only double stakes for Place bets in fields of 12 or less except at 7). Bank at 115 - 3RD -3.96 Bank reduced to 111 pts.
**LIONS DEN (F/c 11/4) D's record is, now, 118G77L. Stake 2.42 pts - LOST -Nil
*SMART PUNCH (F/c 7/2) D'S record is excellent at 94G47L. Stake 10.06 pts. It appeared this was the bet to chance if being selective according to my numbers, but the computed stake was not that high, really. I let it go, though tempted not to - Photo 2ND +Nil (Gain would have been 4.02)
No multiples. Assuming some selections let the side down, computed stake levels were so modest as to almost guarantee loss, I felt.
B-List
WONKAVATOR (F/c 10/1) Big field was reduced. Stake doubled to 0.64 pts - 3RD +Nil (Gain would have been 1.47)
**SIMPLEST (F/c 11/2) Big field was reduced. Stake doubled to 1.52 pts - WON +Nil (Gain would have been 0.46)
CASSARDI (F/c 5/2) Stake 5.81 pts. I chanced this one - LOST -5.81
*PENNYCOME QUICK (F/c 16/1) Stake (Corrected) 0.43 pts - 2ND +Nil (Gain would have been 1.12)
No multiples.
*2 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) - 2PL(incl.0W)0L & **4 races (one or two marginally) in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - 3PL (incl.2W)1L. Overall: 2 outright winners from 6. Squarely the average.
Purely on general race stats: Worst: LIONS DEN/LOST; Best: CASSARDI/LOST.
My A-List Base Stake is still frozen at 32; B-List at 13 pts (I am still on the point of updating these. Off-bonk at present, unreflective of recent results, but probably by not more than 1, or at most, 2 pts each.)
VERDICT: I decided to back the Value bet to win/3RD. Among the asterisked runners there were indeed 2 outright winners, as the average suggested there should be expected. The likeliest of these had appeared to be SMART PUNCH/WON and that worked out. I had thought that maybe the other winner could be the Best selection/WON and it was. (But the Value one/3RD as another possible & it failed.) I was tempted to put those two plus Cassardi/LOST into a treble, but I didn't (it would have failed). I stuck with Slip of the Tongue to win/3RD but added a Place bet on Cassardi/LOST & thus my loss grew to almost 10 pts in total. Without multiples, I would have lost almost 5 pts had I backed all the selections at the quoted computed stakes.
I expect to lose out sometimes, of course, by following the indications of my stats. In assessing today's outcome, it is worth bearing in mind that in virtually every case on today's race categories in the past I will have made a loss. Thus, my losing bets today only, in fact, made the more favourable accounts amongst those categories slightly less favourable, whilst, the less favourable accounts, not having been brought into play, got no worse but also, of course, no better. At the moment it feels right to me to continue being heavily influenced by whatever my stats tell me.
I hope you had good luck with your choices!

Friday, June 27, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 28 UK Preview
Choices in quite difficult races, I would think.
ZIDANE Forecast 10/3. Soft ground (good in places). A lot of opposition but it is Newmarket's Nap. He is an odd-one-out tipster to fear: often picks them. For me against 6 tipped opponents (my limit is 5) including 2 x Next Bests. I will not be backing.
BAIREY CACAO F/c 15/8. Danger of the field dropping to 7. Again a lot of opposition, including Newmarket. Not for me.
DAMIKA F/c 10/1. Poor stat 1W5L, albeit in few races. 6 opponents tipped up in opposition. Big field. Not for me.
REDFORD F/c 3/1. Big field. A lot of respected opposition, but supported by Newmarket. However, Napped but opposed by a Nap. This to me means notionally that the runner is competing for 1 of 2 places, rather than 3. No bet for me.
Sorry to be so negative! Hopefully, I am wrong on four counts, eh? (I often am.)
Good luck!

Saturday, June 28, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 28 Results
I missed the day due to fatigue. As this happened last week, too, looks like Friday nights for me are currently dodgy as regards my stamina. I am planning a change of routine for Thursdays which should help in future.
A-List
*PRIMA NOVA Best Forecast 5/2 Big field David's record good as, now, 95Gains47Losses Main UK Win stat mildly negative - 3RD
Value selection a non-runner
*MONSIEUR FERAUD F/c 9/1 D's record, now, 118G78L Main UK Win stat mildly negative - LOST
**LASORON F/c 2/1 D's record, now, 37G28L Main UK Win stat strongly negative on few races (3W9L) - WON
B-List
**ROCK MY PAGO F/c 13/2 D's record 96G69L - WON
**BERGSTORM F/c 8/1 D's record 96G69L - LOST
MOGLICH F/c 10/1 D's record 16G15L - 3RD
PEAKHURST F/c 5/2 D's record 41G29L - LOST
*2 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) - 1PL(incl.0W)1L & **3 races (one or two marginally) in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - 2PL (incl.2W)1L. Overall 2 outright winners from 5. Better than average technically.
Purely on general race stats: Worst: LASORON/WON; Best: PEAKHURST/LOST.
My A-List Base Stake is still frozen at 32; B-List at 13 pts (I am still on the point of updating these. Off-bonk at present, unreflective of recent results, but probably by not more than 1, or at most, 2 pts each.)
VERDICT: I think I would have advocated no multiples and broken even on a couple of bets
I hope you had good luck with your choices!

Sunday, June 29, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

UK June 28 Results
Well! You have to take your hat off to David on this tipping performance. Two outright winners and two placed from four in races with plenty of opinions flying around about who would win etc., and these complicated by changes in ground conditions and, in consequence, sundry withdrawals.
It is worth reminding oneself, perhaps, that tipping to win and tipping to place are not precisely the same as art-forms. I tend to avoid races on which there is too much diverse opinion as to the likely winners. But some of these might be the very ones to opt for to place.
An all-up multiple would have returned a very handsome profit, I would think. As for me, not a penny won. - Or lost, of course. (I didn't back anything against David's selections: I wouldn't dare do such a foolish thing!)
Well done, David!

Sunday, June 29, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 29 Preview
David's race records are quite strong on most of these. My UK Win stats drag down the stakes computations in the main, but they still end up with hefty in the A-List partly due to the low F/c odds. However, only 2 of all selections are not in my categories avoided for win bets. (There should be 2 outright winners if the average is achieved, but which ones is the rub?) The indication as regards multiples is good, I guess, for the A-List except for MAGIC PROMENADE (in that it comes up as the weakest of all on overall stats).
A-List
BONNY BONNY Best. Forecast 11/8. Big field (13) that may reduce. David's record is 86Gains49Losses. Main UK Win stat significantly negative (the other positive at 59W53L) Stake Capped at 32 (from 33.57 for big field, double this if the field drops below 13) -
SPY'S PRIDE Value F/c 5/2 Standard field Today's best on general stats D's record 125G61L But main UK Win stat significantly negative (the other the same as for the Best selection) Stake Capped at 13 to Win (from 45.56 to Place, which on a Place bet would be capped at 32) -
*MFUWE F/c 5/4 D's record 118G78L Main UK Win stat mildly negative Stake 19.49 -
**MAGIC PROMENADE F/c 15/2 D's record 10G7L Main UK Win stat strongly negative also on few races (3W9L) Stake 0.69 -
Multiple: Place Treble perhaps?
B-List
*PRINCE ZARASSY F/c 11/1 D's record 16G15L Big field Stake 0.30 -
**WHO SHOUTS NEXT F/c 12/1 D's record 37G28L Stake 0.63 -
*THE FLYING STAR F/c 13/8 D's record 118G78L Big field Stake 2.01 -
*DESTINATIONUNKNOWN F/c 5/1 D's record 118G78L Stake 1.31 -
Multiple: Double on latter two perhaps?
*4 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) - & **2 races in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) -
Purely on general race stats: Worst: MAGIC PROMENADE; Best: SPY'S PRIDE.
My A-List Base Stake is still frozen at 32; B-List at 13 pts (I am still on the point of updating these. Still off-bonk, unreflective of recent results, but probably by not more than 1, or at most, 2 pts each.)
VERDICT: I shall try to profit on Spy's Pride to Win and to Place as 1st bets, then see. (Means I shall take a chance leaving out Mfuwe and at least a couple from the B-List.) I shalln't do any multiples, though somewhat tempted.
Good luck!

Sunday, June 29, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

PS June 29 Preview
On further examination, I would say that of the 6 included in the categories I avoid for win bets, the most likely to win, on F/c odds/UK Win stats, are MFUWE & THE FLYING STAR.
Good luck!

Sunday, June 29, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 29 Results [To be updated following result of Bonny Bonny's race]
I have to rest, now, so I thought I would record the results interimly minus 1 race. David's race records were quite strong on most of the selections. My UK Win stats dragged down the stakes computations in the main, but they still ended up hefty in the A-List. However, only 2 in all were not in my categories that I avoid for win bets. (2 outright winners from these could be expected, if the average was achieved, but determining which ones was the rub - I opted for MFUWE/WON & THE FLYING STAR/WON as the most likely.) The indication as regards multiples was good for the A-List except that MAGIC PROMENADE/LOST had come up as the weakest of all the selections on overall stats.
A-List
BONNY BONNY Best. Forecast 11/8. Big field reduced to 12. David's record is 86Gains49Losses. Main UK Win stat significantly negative (the other positive at 59W53L) Stake Capped at 32 (from 67.14 having been doubled for a field below 13) - [TO RUN] (I have placed no bet on this myself being unwilling on this occasion to put at risk the gain obtained via Spy's Pride)
SPY'S PRIDE Value F/c 5/2 Standard field Today's best on general stats D's record, now, 126G61L But main UK Win stat significantly negative (the other the same as for the Best selection) Stake Capped at 13 to Win (from 45.56 to Place, which on a Place bet would be capped at 32) - WON +34.53 on a reduced stake of 10.79 to Win & +7.51 on a reduced stake of 12.27 to Place. Bank increased from 111 to 153 (i,e., what it would be if I had bet at 13 pts to Win.)
*MFUWE F/c 5/4 D's record 118G78L Main UK Win stat mildly negative Stake 19.49 - WON +Nil
**MAGIC PROMENADE F/c 15/2 D's record 10G7L Main UK Win stat strongly negative also on few races (3W9L) Stake 0.69 - LOST -Nil
Multiple: Place Treble perhaps? [Yet to be resolved but I did not do one.]
B-List
*PRINCE ZARASSY F/c 11/1 D's record 16G15L Big field Stake 0.30 - 3RD +Nil
**WHO SHOUTS NEXT F/c 12/1 D's record 37G28L Stake 0.63 - LOST -Nil
*THE FLYING STAR F/c 13/8 D's record 118G78L Big field Stake 2.01 - WON +Nil
*DESTINATIONUNKNOWN F/c 5/1 D's record 118G78L Stake 1.31 - 3RD +Nil
Multiple: Place Double on latter two perhaps? Would have succeeded but I didn't do one.
*4 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) - 4PL(incl.2W)0L & **2 races in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - Both lost. Overall, 2 outright winners from 6: squarely the average.
Purely on general race stats: Worst: MAGIC PROMENADE/LOST; Best: SPY'S PRIDE/WON.
My A-List Base Stake is still frozen at 32; B-List at 13 pts (I am still on the point of updating these. Still off-bonk, unreflective of recent results, but probably by not more than 1, or at most, 2 pts each.)
VERDICT: I profited on Spy's Pride To Win and To Place and then found myself unwilling to put those gains at risk.
I hope you enjoyed extra good luck!

Sunday, June 29, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 29 Results [updated]
David's race records were quite strong on most of the selections. My UK Win stats dragged down the stakes computations in the main, but they still ended up hefty in the A-List. However, only 2 in all were not in my categories that I avoid for win bets. (2 outright winners from the latter could be expected, if the average was achieved, but which ones was the rub - I opted for MFUWE/WON & THE FLYING STAR/WON as the most likely on odds/stats.) The indication as regards multiples was good for the A-List except that MAGIC PROMENADE/LOST had come out weakest of all the selections on overall stats.
A-List
BONNY BONNY Best. Forecast 11/8. Big field reduced to 12. David's record is, now, 87Gains49Losses. Main UK Win stat significantly negative (the other positive at 59W53L) Stake Capped at 32 (from 67.14 having been doubled for a field below 13) - WON +Nil (I placed no bet on this myself being unwilling on this occasion to put at risk the gain obtained via Spy's Pride. Gain would have been 16.00 pts at the full capped stake)
SPY'S PRIDE Value F/c 5/2 Standard field Today's best on general stats D's record, now, 126G61L But main UK Win stat significantly negative (the other the same as for the Best selection) Stake Capped at 13 to Win (from 45.56 to Place, which on a Place bet would be capped at 32) - WON +34.53 on a reduced stake of 10.79 to Win & +7.51 on a reduced stake of 12.27 to Place. Bank increased from 111 to 153 (i,e., what it would be if I had bet at 13 pts to Win. Shortfall on what it would have been at full stakes not calculated.)
*MFUWE F/c 5/4 D's record 118G78L Main UK Win stat mildly negative Stake 19.49 - WON +Nil (Gain would have been 13.64 pts at the full stake.)
**MAGIC PROMENADE F/c 15/2 D's record 10G7L Main UK Win stat strongly negative also on few races (3W9L) Stake 0.69 - LOST -Nil
Multiple: Place Treble perhaps? Would have won but I didn't do one.
B-List
*PRINCE ZARASSY F/c 11/1 D's record 16G15L Big field Stake 0.30 - 3RD +Nil (Gain would have been 0.42 pts.)
**WHO SHOUTS NEXT F/c 12/1 D's record 37G28L Stake 0.63 - LOST -Nil
*THE FLYING STAR F/c 13/8 D's record 118G78L Big field Stake 2.01 - WON +Nil (Gain would have been 1.21 pts.)
*DESTINATIONUNKNOWN F/c 5/1 D's record 118G78L Stake 1.31 - 3RD +Nil (Gain would have been 1.44 pts.)
Multiple: Place Double on latter two perhaps? Would have succeeded but I didn't do one.
*4 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) - 4PL(incl.2W)0L & **2 races in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - Both lost. Overall, 2 outright winners from 6: squarely the average.
Purely on general race stats: Worst: MAGIC PROMENADE/LOST; Best: SPY'S PRIDE/WON.
My A-List Base Stake is still frozen at 32; B-List at 13 pts (I am still on the point of updating these. Still off-bonk, unreflective of recent results, but probably by not more than 1, or at most, 2 pts each.)
VERDICT: Thanks to David's Value selection, I profited on Spy's Pride To Win and, on this occasion, To Place and then found myself unwilling to put these gains at risk. I prefer to back everything in his lists but sometimes it just isn't possible. So, no regrets today.
I hope you enjoyed extra good luck!

Sunday, June 29, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

Tuesday, July 01, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

June 30 Results sans Preview
A-List
David's records were good except for the Value selection in that there had only been 1 race in its category previously (which lost). However, 2 fields were big, and my UK Win stats included significant negatives (except on the Value selection's race category). The latter was 1 of 2 selections not in my */ ** categories.
*GET GLOBAL (Forecast 5/2) David's record is, now, 96Gains47Losses. The main UK win stat is mildly negative. Big field - 3RD +Nil
GOLDEN HANK (Forecast 25/1) D's record is, now, 1Gain1Loss. UK Win stats are outstandingly positive (15W2L & 142W72L). Stake 12.62 pts to Win (Double that To Place if done). Win Bank at 153 - 2ND (@ 2.10 to Place) +Nil. Bank reduced to 140
*DAS BEAGLE (F/c 3/1) D's record is, now, 119G79L. Main UK Win stat mildly negative - LOST -Nil
AIRSTREAM (F/c 9/2) D's record is 126G62L. Main UK Win stat negative (the other mildly positive). Big field - LOST -Nil
No multiples.
*2 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) - 1PL(incl.0W)1L; & **None in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - Overall not on way to bucking the average
General race stats: Worst: DAS BEAGLE/LOST; Best: GOLDEN HANK/2ND (if I apply UK Win stats).
My A-List Base Stake is still frozen at 32 pts.
VERDICT: I think I would have advocated no multiples. I might have gone for a Place bet on the Value selection as well as the Win bet, probably at reduced stakes because of the high F/c odds of 25/1
Hope you had good luck!

Tuesday, July 01, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

July 01 Preview
David's race records are fairly strong on many of these. My UK Win stats (& big Forecast odds) drag down the stake level computations such that they end up hefty only on the Best selection. However, only 3 of all selections are not in my 'avoided for win bets' categories. (There could be 1 or 2 outright winners from the rest if the average is achieved, but which ones? Indeed, I think there's a fair chance, on the way it looks to me, that none may win - for the most likely, however, perm from TELL THE FOREST, HOLLOWAY & IQUITOS, the latter perhaps marginally favourite of these.) The indications as regards multiples look reasonable on the B-List, on D's records alone, but I don't feel strongly in their favour.
A-List
ZUBACK Best. Forecast 13/8. Big field. David's record is 126Gains62Losses. Main UK Win stat significantly negative (the other positive at 59W53L) Stake Capped at 32 (from 34.19), The most obvious selection for a bet -
*&**LEVEL THREE Value F/c 5/2 Marginally worst on general stats: D's record 41G29L, UK Win stats significantly negative, Win Bank 140, Stake 2.12 pts to Win -
*TELL THE FOREST F/c 25/1 D's record 119G79L, but not too many F/c 25/1. Main UK Win stat only mildly negative Stake 0.48 pts -
*HOLLOWAY F/c 10/1 D's record is poor 16G15L, Main UK Win 50/50ish Stake 0.87 pts -
No multiples
B-List
NIPTIOUS F/c 25/1 D's record an excellent 126G62L but not many F/c 25/1 Stake 0.89 pts -
*IQUITOS F/c 6/1 D's record also an excellent 126G62L Stake 1.97 pts -
*&**TWIRLER F/c 10/1 D's record 75G51L Stake 0.33 pts -
TOOMAH BOY F/c 8/1 D's record 87G49L Stake 2.73 pts -
Multiples on D's record alone look worth chancing. (But the F/c odds look a bit high.) A Place Double on Iquitos & Toomah Boy might be the safest option at a pinch.
*5 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) [of which **2 are also, on my other UK Win stats, in races in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections)] -
Purely on general race stats: Worst: marginally, LEVEL THREE; Best: ZUBACK.
My A-List Base Stake is still frozen at 32; B-List at 13 pts (I am still on the point of updating these. Still off-bonk, unreflective of recent results, but probably by not more than 1, or at most, 2 pts each.)
VERDICT: I think, in careful mode, I'll restrict myself to the Best & Value selections, to Place and to Win respectively.
Good luck!

Tuesday, July 01, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

July 01 Results
David's race records were fairly strong on 3 of the 4. The exception was HOLLOWAY/2ND. My UK Win stats (& big Forecast odds) dragged down the stake level computations such that they were hefty only on the Best selection. Only 1 was not in my 'avoided for win bets' categories. (There could have been 1 outright winner from the included ones, I thought, and nominated TELL THE FOREST/LOST & HOLLOWAY/2ND as possibles.) The indications as regards multiples did not look likely and this was born out.
A-List
ZUBACK Best. Forecast 13/8. Big field. David's record is, now, 126Gains63Losses. Main UK Win stat was significantly negative (the other positive at 59W53L) Stake Capped at 32 (from 34.19), The most obvious selection for a bet, I thought - LOST -32.00. With 3rd & 4th both @ 28.00 and 2nd at 7.80, the extra danger from big fields is graphically exemplified. But I don't know what actually happened. Maybe something went amiss with the selection?
*&**LEVEL THREE Value F/c 5/2 Marginally worst on general stats: D's record 41G29L, UK Win stats significantly negative, Win Bank 140, Stake 2.12 pts to Win - 2ND -2.12 I saw this race (the only one I did) and this selection was leading by a couple of lengths at the start of the straight but got overhauled with but metres to go. Went off favourite,
*TELL THE FOREST F/c 25/1 D's record 119G79L, but not too many F/c 25/1. Main UK Win stat only mildly negative Stake 0.48 pts - LOST - Nil. 4th behind a Deadheat for 3rd.
*HOLLOWAY F/c 10/1 D's record is poor 16G15L, Main UK Win 50/50ish Stake 0.87 pts - 2ND @ 2.80 to Place +Nil (Gain would have been 1.57)
No multiples
B-List - Moe meeting off.
*3 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) [of which **1 also, on my other UK Win stats, in races in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections)] - 2PL(incl.0W)1L - Below average
Purely on general race stats: Worst: marginally, LEVEL THREE/2ND; Best: ZUBACK/LOST.
My A-List Base Stake is still frozen at 32; B-List at 13 pts (I am still on the point of updating these. Still off-bonk, unreflective of recent results, but probably by not more than 1, or at most, 2 pts each.)
VERDICT: In careful mode, I restricted myself to the Best & Value selections, to Place and to Win respectively. Hey ho. A most unwanted outcome at this time of especial constraint. Ironically, I had already passed up a Best selection to preserve the recent grand outright win of a Value selection and, here, today that very risk was posed by my strategy except that the Best selection I previously passed up had placed. There's a moral in that somewhere, I guess.
Hope you had good luck!

Tuesday, July 01, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

Wednesday, July 02, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

July 02 Preview
Can't go with today's selections in the main. Despite David's race records (some very good), if I factor in my UK Win stats, some big Forecast odds, mostly big fields, every selection in my 'avoided for win bets' categories (but on average there could be 2/3 winners here), the stakes calculations conspire to form an unappetizing look to the day. Difficult to be selective, which I have to be at present.
A-List
*&**COLD SOBER Best. Forecast 2/1. Big field. David's record is 42Gains29Losses. UK Win statS significantly negative Stake 2.85 pts (very low for a Best selection) -
**TAMBREY Value F/c 8/1 Big field D's record 96G69L, Main UK Win stat significantly negative, Win Bank 138, Stake 1.24 pts to Win -
**READY FREDDY F/c 13/8 D's record 27G15L. Big field (13). Main UK Win stat strongly negative Stake 21.96 pts (bumped up by the short F/c odds & D's good record). This looks the nearest to an obvious bet based on my stats. Were the field to reduce from 13, the stake would be
doubled and thus Capped at 32 (But it seems absurd to contemplate a stake this high compared with that computed for the Best selection!) -
**CLASSY NUGGET F/c 11/4 D's record is 96G47L. Big field. UK Wins stats my worst of all, albeit on few races Stake 1.65 pts -
No multiples. Or yes: on D's excellent record overall for the Best selections (250G108L) and decent record (201G160L) for his Value selections to date, on the encouraging computed stake level for Ready Freddy, & on D's good record on Classy Nugget's race category. Might come in, but I am not going to chance it.
B-List
**VALEGRETTE F/c 13/1 D's record an excellent 126G63L but not many F/c 13/1 Big field (13) Stake 0.67 pts -
**CASTLE HILL LAD F/c 33/1 D's record also an excellent 76G31L , but not too many at F/c 33/1 Stake 1.00 pt -
*ELECTRIC HATTER F/c 40/1 D's record 126G63L but none F/c at 40/1, I should think. Standard field. Stake 0.29 pts -
**POWER CIRCUIT F/c 16/1 D's record 96G69L Standard field. Stake 0.36 pts -
Multiples on D's records alone might be worth chancing. (But the F/c odds are high.) It would be a gamble!
*2 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) & **6 in my other UK Win stats of races in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) -
Purely on general race stats: Worst: CLASSY NUGGET (if I don't ignore the abysmal UK stats on few races); Best: VALEGRETTE.
My A-List Base Stake is still frozen at 32; B-List at 13 pts (I am still on the point of updating these. Still off-bonk, unreflective of recent results, but probably by not more than 1, or at most, 2 pts each.)
VERDICT: My UK stats and the high F/c odds generally may be 'leading me up a gum tree' (as we say) by artificially dampening down the reasonably good record David has on many of these race categories, but I won't bet today except on the Best & Value selections for luck.
Good luck!

Wednesday, July 02, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

July 02 Results
Mostly I couldn't go with today's selections. Despite David's race records (some very good), if I factored in my UK Win stats, some big Forecast odds, mostly big fields, every selection in my 'avoided for win bets' categories (but knowing an average of 2/3 winners could happen [which it did at better than the average]), the stakes calculations conspired to form an unappetizing look to the day. In the light of the tripple weighting I give to D's records in my computations on A-List selections, it was difficult to be selective. I felt I had to be cautious but it turned into one of those days when D's A-List selections bucked the trends indicated my my stats. Some days they do. All credit to him. But though good, most of the stats were in losing bet categories so far. It is difficult to be hard on myself
A-List
*&**COLD SOBER Best. Forecast 2/1. Big field. David's record is, now, 43Gains29Losses. UK Win stats significantly negative Stake 2.85 pts (very low for a Best selection) - WON +0.86
**TAMBREY Value F/c 8/1 Big field did reduce. D's record, now, 96G70L, Main UK Win stat significantly negative, Win Bank 138, Stake 1.24 pts to Win - LOST -1.24. Bank reduced to 137.
**READY FREDDY F/c 13/8 D's record, now, 28G15L. Big field did reduce. Main UK Win stat strongly negative Stake Capped at 32 (from 43.92 pts - bumped up by the short F/c odds & D's good record proportionally). This looked the nearest to an obvious bet based on my stats. It seemed absurd, though, to contemplate a stake this high compared with that computed for the Best selection, so I backed it in the end just at a token level of 2.85 pts - WON +0.86 (Gain would have been 16.00 at Capped level of stake)
**CLASSY NUGGET F/c 11/4 D's record is, now, 97G47L. Big field. UK Wins stats my worst of all, albeit on few races Stake 1.65 pts - WON +Nil (Gain would have been 0.83)
No multiples. Or yes, I thought, possibly: on D's excellent record overall for the Best selections (now 251G108L) and decent record (now 201G161L) for his Value selections to date, on the encouraging computed stake level for Ready Freddy, & on D's good record on Classy Nugget's race category. Might come in, I thought, but decided not to chance it - Overall, 1 loser. Ds and a T would have succeeded but an all-up not.
B-List
**VALEGRETTE F/c 13/1 D's record an excellent 126G63L but not many F/c 13/1 Big field did reduce. Stake doubled to 1.34 pts - LOST (4th) -Nil
**CASTLE HILL LAD F/c 33/1 D's record also an excellent 76G31L, but not too many at F/c 33/1 Stake 1.00 pt - LOST -Nil
*ELECTRIC HATTER F/c 40/1 D's record 126G63L but none F/c at 40/1, I should think. Standard field. Stake 0.29 pts - LOST -Nil
**POWER CIRCUIT F/c 16/1 D's record 96G69L Standard field. Stake 0.36 pts - WON +Nil (Gain would have been 0.94)
Multiples on D's records alone might be worth chancing. (But the F/c odds are high.) It would be a gamble!
*2 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) & **6 in my other UK Win stats of races in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - Overall 4 outright winners from 8. Better than average.
Purely on general race stats: Worst: CLASSY NUGGET/WON; Best: VALEGRETTE/LOST (but a creditable 4th).
My A-List Base Stake is still frozen at 32; B-List at 13 pts (I am still on the point of updating these. Still off-bonk, unreflective of recent results, but probably by not more than 1, or at most, 2 pts each.)
VERDICT: My UK stats and the high F/c odds I thought generally might be 'leading me up a gum tree' (as we say) by artificially dampening down the reasonably good record David had on many of the race categories, but I bet on the Best/WON & Value/LOST selections and one other for luck and broke even at +0.48 pts. Considering 4 selections lost, I think I have to say that was satisfactory if unexciting. I can't be too hard on myself for not investing more on the Capped bet selection. That it wasn't D's Best selection had to be treated as a negative by me at the moment.
Hope you had good luck!

Wednesday, July 02, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

July 03 Preview
David's race records reasonable only. 7 of the 8 in my 'avoided for win bets' categories (but on average there could be 2/3 outright winners here), short forecast odds in the main. Adds up to a reasonable indication for multiples if you are feeling lucky, possibly perming 3 from 4 from each list.
A-List
*SEA ZULU Best. Forecast 11/10. David's record is 119Gains80Losses. Main UK Win stat mildly negative Stake 21.05 pts -
**NORTH AND SOUTH Value F/c 13/2 D's record 96G70L, Main UK Win stat significantly negative, Win Bank 137, Stake 1.46 pts to Win -
**PELOTON F/c 9/4 D's record 87G49L. Main UK Win stat strongly negative Stake 26.59 pts -
TORA TORA TORA F/c 13/8 D's record is 16G8L. UK Wins stat a negative Stake Capped at 32 (from 122.53) But it seems a negative to contemplate a stake this high compared with that computed for the Best selection! -
Multiples might be contemplated, taking a chance that the Value selection will place.
B-List
*SILVERY BELL F/c 5/2 D's record an excellent 97G47L Stake 6.29 pts - LOST -6.29 Missed kick a bit, made ground but never nearer than about 5th.
**UPTOWN TYCOON F/c 13/2 D's record 119G80L Stake 1.48 pts -
**SARASEN KING F/c 6/1 D's record 119G80L Big field Stake 0.80 pts -
*MONSOON MADNESS F/c 11/4 D's record 28G15L Big field. Stake 3.69 pts -
Multiples on D's records alone might be worth chancing. (But at the time of writing Silvery Bell has run and lost.)
*3 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) & **4 in my other UK Win stats of races in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) -
Purely on general race stats: Worst: marginally NORTH AND SOUTH (but with the Best selection above a close 2nd); Best: TORA TORA TORA.
My A-List Base Stake is still frozen at 32; B-List at 13 pts (I am still on the point of updating these. Still off-bonk, unreflective of recent results, but probably by not more than 1, or at most, 2 pts each.)
VERDICT: I don't have much to bet with today and I have already lost half of it on Silvery Bell on which I took a chance. I'll empty my account on Sea Zulu and then see after that. I ought to be doing the multiples but I won't chance them today.
Good luck!

Thursday, July 03, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

July 03 Results
David's race records were only reasonable. A big negative was that 7 of the 8 were in my 'avoided for win bets' categories (but on there could be 3 outright winners from a collection of circa 9 on average), short forecast odds in the main. Added up to a reasonable indication for multiples on paper if you were feeling lucky, possibly perming 3 from 4 from each list.
A-List
*SEA ZULU Best. Forecast 11/10. David's record is 119Gains80Losses. Main UK Win stat mildly negative Stake 21.05 pts - WON +0.26 on a reduced stake (Full gain would have been 0.84)
**NORTH AND SOUTH Value F/c 13/2 D's record 96G70L, Main UK Win stat significantly negative, Win Bank 137, Stake 1.46 pts to Win - 2ND Good run I thought Close but no cigar -1.46 Bank reduced to 136.
**PELOTON F/c 9/4 D's record 87G49L. Main UK Win stat strongly negative Stake 26.59 pts - LOST (4th after photo for 3rd) -6.48 The unlucky one today that I heard on the radio. Touched off for 3rd by having been beaten trying to win.
TORA TORA TORA F/c 13/8 D's record is 16G8L. UK Wins stat a negative Stake Capped at 32 (from 122.53) But it seems a negative to contemplate a stake this high compared with that computed for the Best selection! - WON +1.35 on reduced stake (Full gain would have been 6.40)
Multiples might have been contemplated, taking a chance that the Value selection would place.
B-List
*SILVERY BELL F/c 5/2 D's record an excellent 97G47L Stake 6.29 pts - LOST -6.29 Missed kick a bit, made ground but never nearer than about 5th.
**UPTOWN TYCOON F/c 13/2 D's record 119G80L Stake 1.48 pts - 2ND +1.33 Damned near won.
**SARASEN KING F/c 6/1 D's record 119G80L Big field Stake 0.80 pts - LOST -Nil
*MONSOON MADNESS F/c 11/4 D's record 28G15L Big field. Stake 3.69 pts - LOST -1.48
Multiples on D's records alone might be worth chancing, I thought. (But at the time of writing the Preview Silvery Bell had lost.) The above idea of "perming 3 from 4" worked negatively in that 3 of the 4 lost.
*3 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) & **4 in my other UK Win stats of races in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - 1 outright winner overall from 7: below average. The nearest to, on what I know, were the Best & Value selections, the former winning and the latter going close.
Purely on general race stats: Worst: marginally NORTH AND SOUTH/2ND (but with the Best selection/WON above a close 2nd); Best: TORA TORA TORA/WON.
My A-List Base Stake is still frozen at 32; B-List at 13 pts (I am still on the point of updating these. Still off-bonk, unreflective of recent results, but probably by not more than 1, or at most, 2 pts each.)
VERDICT: I didn't have much to bet with today and lost half of that on Silvery Bell right at the beginning taking a chance on it before I had finished processing the selections. I emptied my account then on Sea Zulu/WON and played it by ear after that. The defeat of PELOTON was crucial. Residual balances went to nothing after that. Because I lost only the little I had available and committed no further funds to the task, I got the idea of calling today's betting strategy the "Company" one, so named after the business company tag: Company Limited by Guarantee.
Hope you had good luck!

Thursday, July 03, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

July 3 Other Results sans preview
I get an email from Hong Hong most meetings and I just follow the two tipsters on that. Neither's choice featured in David's list but neither was placed. (I don't know if either was a non-runner.)
I processed David's selections using stats from his record in Oz and my UK Win ones. A rough and ready method as the odds I get on Hong Kong are the overnight market based ones only, I understand. But these help to give me some sort of yardstick for calculating stakes.
Base Stake = 10 pts
R4 MAGIC KING O/n Odds 5.0. This was tipped up also by the Tote Radio Tips Club email I get from Oz. D's record 54Gains41Losses Main UK Win stat strongly negative on relatively few races at 19W29L. Stake 0.88 - 2ND +Nil. (Reluctantly, I committed no new funds to this line up.)
R5 MULTO EXPRESS O/n Odds 3.6 D's record 87G49L Main UK Win stat 64W89L (the other just better than 50/50) Stake 2.63 - WON +Nil
R6 SOLAR O/n Odds 19.0 D's record 54G41L but not many at 18/1 UK Win strongly negative (the other significantly so) Stake 0.23 - LOST -Nil
R8 LU YUE O/n Odds 8.5 D's record 4G1L Main UK Win stat 2W5L (The lesser one 2W3L) Stake 1.25 - 2ND +Nil
Pretty good, eh, if you went in light on Solar.

David followed up a recent good record on UK races, with another pretty good one! (If you discount the 1st race.)
Base Stake = 11 pts
BALAKIREF F/c Not checked. (I was late on this exercise) - LOST @ SP 13/2 -Nil Well down the big field.
SUITS ME F/c 10/1 D's record 54G31L UK Win stat strongly negative Stake 0.58 - 3RD +Nil
TATBEEQ F/c 7/4 D's record 27G11L My Main UK Win stat 83W48L (my lesser one 181W/83). Needless to say, I had this in my list as well. But there was a fancied rival that actually started favourite. Tatbeeq SP's at circa 2/1. Now, I don't like to bet big on a potential 2-horse race (though sometimes I back both to Place). In this case, my judgment was to go with this one under David's banner in my records, especially as Newmarket favoured it in the Racing Post (though not his Nap of the day). When in doubt, it is often not a bad idea to give Newmarket's selection the casting vote and this I did. Stake Capped at 11 (from 51.64) - WON +2.49 on a slightly reduced stake. (The rival totally bombed for some reason.)
*&**OH SO SAUCY F/c 3/1 D's record 97G47L Both UK Win stats strongly negative. Stake 1.12 -2ND +Nil
Also pretty good results if you didn't lose much on the 1st race.
Hope you had a good day on these and any others!

Friday, July 04, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

July 04 Preview
David's race records are again just reasonable. I am pleased that only **2 selections are in my 'avoid for win bets' category (of which 1 may well win, if something like the average is born out - however they are both in the B-List at Forecast odds of 13/1). My UK Win stats are mostly more favourable than usual but the general level of the forecast odds, being on the high side, it is hard to be confident of success across the board. Adds up to a reasonable indication for multiples on the A-List, but one on the B-List, on paper, looks to me a little-or-no-hoper.
A-List (NB David's race records are given triple weighting in the stake computations for the A-List, double weighting for the B-List)
MAGIC ROCKER Best. Forecast 5/1 (quite high for a Best selection). David's record is 24Gains15Losses (relatively few races). Main UK Win stat is negative (the other quirky positive) Stake 14.95 pts, the high F/c odds having perhaps over-depressed the stake size in the computation. (But I don't like to argue against the computed level. If I use D's record [252G108L] on Best selections, instead of race stats, it works out as only 9.96 pts. I used to apply this stat as well, as the final stage of my computation series, but stopped when I decided I should go only on actual race category records.) Anyway, the indicated stake at c15 pts, compared with the Base Stake of 32, is not that ringingly endorsive of the selection on the face of it. However, D's judgment on what his Best selection is has to be highly respected. But does it set a cautious note on how the day as a whole should be viewed? -
LIONS DEN Value F/c 9/2 D's record 126G63L, Main UK Win stat significantly negative (the other mildly positive), Win Bank 136, Stake 11.77 pts to Win. This may be the only bet I do today as I am short of betting funds -
GRAND NEARTIC F/c 6/1 D's record 87G50L. The only Big field in the A-List today. Main UK Win stat strongly negative Stake 7.97 pts -
MINI VIEW F/c 3/1 D's record is 44G29L. UK Wins stat squarely 50/50 (the other mildly positive) Stake 18.10 pts. But once again it seems a negative to contemplate a stake higher for a rank and file selection than that computed for a Best selection -
Multiples might be contemplated; the Value selection, on paper, having an excellent chance of being placed (for which the single stake to Place would be 25.53 pts) -
B-List - No big fields
**PINEY CREEK F/c 13/1 D's record an excellent 126G63L Stake 0.92 pts -
**BRODICON F/c 13/1 D's record 120G80L Stake 0.25 pts -
SO DETERMINED F/c 8/1 D's record 87G50L Stake 2.73 pts -
A LITTLE DABL DOYA F/c 8/1 D's record 0G1L (only 1 past race in this category) Main UK Win stat favourable at 10W6L but not any at 8/1, I would think. Stake 5.17 pts (likely, too high) -
No multiple for me, I think.
*No races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) & **2 in my other UK Win stats of races in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) -
Purely on general race stats: Worst: BRODICON; Best: marginally, MINI VIEW (with Lions Den a close 2nd).
My A-List Base Stake is still frozen at 32; B-List at 13 pts (I am still on the point of updating these. Still off-bonk, unreflective of recent results, but probably by not more than 1, or at most, 2 pts each.)
VERDICT: Using fresh funds, I don't have much to bet with today. I'll chance a win bet on LIONS DEN and do an All-Up multiple on the A-List at a token stake. I feel it is a day that could go very well but that there is a chance that the stats have flattered to deceive and results could wholly disappoint. I shall not stay up to follow the racing. If the day does not start well abort the rest, I advise. (It is by no means impossible that none of the selections even places. I hope that does not happen, of course, but it has been known to - possibly in spite of better stats than David's are today.)
Good luck!

Friday, July 04, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

July 04 Results
David's race records were just reasonable. I was pleased that only **2 selections were in my 'avoid for win bets' category, both in the B-List at Forecast odds of 13/1. My UK Win stats were mostly more favourable than usual but the general level of the forecast odds, being on the high side, it was hard to be confident of success across the board. Added up to a reasonable indication for multiples on the A-List, I thought, but one on the B-List, on paper, looked a little-or-no-hoper.
A-List (NB David's race records are given triple weighting in the stake computations for the A-List, double weighting for the B-List)
MAGIC ROCKER Best. Forecast 5/1 (quite high for a Best selection). David's record is 24Gains15Losses (relatively few races). Main UK Win stat is negative (the other quirky positive) for this race category. Stake 14.95 pts, the high F/c odds having perhaps over-depressed the stake size in the computation. (But I don't like to argue against the computed level.) The indicated stake at c15 pts, compared with the Base Stake of 32, was not that ringingly endorsive of the selection on the face of it. However, D's judgment on what his Best selection is always has to be highly respected. But did it set a cautious note today on how it should be viewed? I wondered - LOST -Nil. In photo for 4th, I think.
LIONS DEN Value F/c 9/2 D's record 126G63L, Main UK Win stat significantly negative (the other mildly positive), Win Bank 136, Stake 11.77 pts to Win. This may be the only bet I do today as I am short of betting funds - 2ND -11.77 Bank reduced to 124. Close but no cigar, alas.
GRAND NEARTIC F/c 6/1 D's record 87G50L. The only Big field in the A-List today. Main UK Win stat strongly negative Stake 7.97 pts - WON +Nil (Gain would have been 8.77)
MINI VIEW F/c 3/1 D's record is 44G29L. UK Wins stat squarely 50/50 (the other mildly positive) Stake 18.10 pts. But once again it seemed a negative to contemplate a stake higher for a rank and file selection than that computed for a Best selection - 2ND +Nil (Gain would have been 5.43)
Multiples might be contemplated; the Value selection, on paper, having an excellent chance of being placed (for which the single stake to Place would be 25.53 pts) - It did, but the Best selection didn't. I did Place Trebles on the 4 @ a miniscule stake = NET LOSS -0.06
B-List - No big fields
**PINEY CREEK F/c 13/1 D's record an excellent 126G63L Stake 0.92 pts - LOST (4th) - Nil
**BRODICON F/c 13/1 D's record 120G80L Stake 0.25 pts - 2ND +Nil Good run. (Gain would have been 0.63)
SO DETERMINED F/c 8/1 D's record 87G50L Stake 2.73 pts - 3RD +Nil (Gain would have been 1.64)
A LITTLE DABL DOYA F/c 8/1 D's record 0G1L (only 1 past race in this category) Main UK Win stat favourable at 10W6L but not any at 8/1, I would think. Stake 5.17 pts (likely, too high) - LOST -Nil. Slowly away, then never in it.
No multiple.
*No races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) & **2 in my other UK Win stats of races in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner on average out of every 3 selections) - Neither an outright winner. On course for an average result, we can say.
Purely on general race stats: Worst: BRODICON/2ND; Best: marginally, MINI VIEW/2ND (Lions Den the close second).
My A-List Base Stake is still frozen at 32; B-List at 13 pts (I am still on the point of updating these. Still off-bonk, unreflective of recent results, but probably by not more than 1, or at most, 2 pts each.)
VERDICT: Using fresh funds, I chanced a win bet on LIONS DEN/2ND and Place Trebles from 4/NET LOSS on the A-List but at a tiny stake. I felt it was a day that could go very well but that there was a chance that the stats had flattered to deceive and results could wholly disappoint. I thought, at worst, it was even possible that none of the selections would place.
I hope you enjoyed good luck!

Friday, July 04, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

July 05 Preview
David's race records are mostly just reasonable again. 6 selections are in my 'avoid for win bets' category of which 2 may win, if the average is born out. My main UK Win stats are variously negative, forecast odds range modestly from 9/10 to 15/2, though not exactly discouraging, it is hard to be confident of success across the board. On David's race records alone it adds up to a reasonable indication for multiples on both lists. Leaving out READY WHEN YOU ARE & NEWTON'S RINGS look to be good ideas on paper.
A-List
No big fields. NB David's race records are given triple weighting in the stake computations for the A-List, double weighting for the B-List.
*COMESPA. Best. Forecast 13/8. David's record is 97Gains47Losses. Main UK Win stat is mildly negative. Stake Capped at 32 (from 49.15) -
**READY WHEN YOU ARE. Value. F/c 6/1. D's record 24G16L, UK Win stats dreadful on few races. Win Bank 124. Stake 0.60 pts to Win -
*GENTLY BENTLEY. F/c 9/10. D's record 120G80L. Main UK Win stat mildly negative. Stake 21.37 pts -
KETTLEDRUM. F/c 5/1. D's record is 127G63L. UK Wins stat firmly negative (the other mildly positive) Stake 21.69 pts -
Multiples might be contemplated without Ready When You Are.
B-List - 2 big fields that might reduce
*&**GENTRY. F/c 4/1. D's record 75G51L Stake 0.41 pts -
**ZULU MAN. F/c 5/1. D's record 97G70L Stake 0.28 pts -
DECERTO. F/c 2/1 D's record 54G41L Stake 6.43 pts -
**NEWTON'S RINGS. F/c 15/2. D's record 8G16L: one of the very few wholly negative ones. Stake 0.02 pts (!): the lowest I've ever computed -
I should be saying 'no multiples,' I think, but perhaps worth chancing. There is quite a lot of racing that David has chosen from and these F/c odds look within very reasonable bounds for good selections. On paper, Newton's Rings should be ignored, all the same, I would think.
*3 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) & **4 (1 of them also in the * category) in my other UK Win stats of races in the 'as near as dammit' category (roughly 1 outright winner or worse on average out of every 3 selections) -
Purely on general race stats: Worst: READY WHEN YOU ARE (closely followed by Newton's Rings); Best: KETTLEDRUM.
My A-List Base Stake is still frozen at 32; B-List at 13 pts (I am still on the point of updating these. Still off-bonk, unreflective of recent results, but probably by not more than 2, or at most, 3 pts each.)
VERDICT: I think I shall chance a win bet on GENTRY and a multiple on the rest of the A-List; then empty my account balance on COMESPA and see after that.
Good luck!

Saturday, July 05, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

July 05 Results
David's race records were mostly just reasonable again and results bore out any concessions made to caution. 5 selections were in my 'avoid for win bets' category (1 of them in both) of which 1 or 2 often win, if the average is born out. One did win. My main UK Win stats were variously negative, forecast odds ranged modestly from 9/10 to 15/2, though not exactly discouraging, it was hard, I thought, to be confident of success across the board. On David's race records alone it added up to a reasonable indication for multiples on both lists but not doing them was one of my concessions to caution. Leaving out READY WHEN YOU ARE/WON & NEWTON'S RINGS/LOST looked to be good ideas on paper.
A-List
NB: David's race records are given triple weighting in the stake computations for the A-List, double weighting for the B-List. Also note that I update his records only on A-List results.
There were no big fields in the A-List today.
*COMEPSA. Best. Forecast 13/8. David's record is now 98Gains47Losses. Main UK Win stat was mildly negative. Stake Capped at 32 (from 49.15) - WON +0.96 on a reduced stake (Full gain would have been 3.20)
**READY WHEN YOU ARE. Value. F/c 6/1. D's record now 25G16L, UK Win stats dreadful on few races. Win Bank now increased to 126. Corrected Stake 0.30 pts to Win - WON +2.37
*GENTLY BENTLEY. F/c 9/10. D's record now 120G81L. Main UK Win stat mildly negative. Stake 21.37 pts - LOST -Nil. Skipped this one because I decided to pin hopes on Kettledrum.
KETTLEDRUM. F/c 5/1. D's record is now 127G64L. UK Wins stat firmly negative (the other mildly positive) Stake 21.69 pts - LOST -12.82 on reduced stake. I wish I had withheld my gain on Ready When You Are from being committed.
Multiples might be contemplated without Ready When You Are/WON I had thought but I didn't do them deciding instead to pin my faith on single bets.
B-List - There were 2 big fields that did not reduce to 12 or less
*&**GENTRY. F/c 4/1. D's record 75G51L Stake 0.41 pts - LOST -0.41. I went win bet on this, hoping for a slightly better return.
**ZULU MAN - Meeting off.
DECERTO. F/c 2/1 D's record is 54G41L Stake 6.43 pts - 3RD +Nil. I missed this one, actually, by mistake. (Gain would have been 3.86)
**NEWTON'S RINGS. F/c 15/2. D's record is 8G16L: one of the very few wholly negative ones. Stake 0.02 pts (!): the lowest I've ever computed - LOST -Nil
I should have been saying 'no multiples,' I had thought, but perhaps worth chancing. There was quite a lot of racing that David had chosen from and these F/c odds looked within very reasonable bounds for good selections. On paper, Newton's Rings should be ignored, all the same, I thought.
*3 races in the dreaded '6 runners Forecast @ Under 14/1' category that I avoid for Win bets (23W44L) - 1PL(incl.0W)2L & **4 (1 of them also in the * category) in my other UK Win stats of races in the 'as near as dammit' category cluster (roughly 1 outright winner or worse on average out of every 3 selections) - 1 outright winner. Below average-ish for a total of 5 of these category runners.
Purely on general race stats: Worst: READY WHEN YOU ARE/WON (closely followed by Newton's Rings/LOST); Best: KETTLEDRUM/LOST.
My A-List Base Stake is still frozen at 32; B-List at 13 pts (I am still on the point of updating these. Still off-bonk, unreflective of recent results, but probably by not more than 2, or at most, 3 pts each.)
VERDICT: I went with a betting strategy I now call "Company," which commits fresh money at the start and does not add to it if lost. I chanced win bets on GENTRY/LOST and READY WHEN YOU ARE/WON, emptied my account balance on COMEPSA/2ND and then again on KETTLEDRUM/LOST.
I hope you had good luck!

Saturday, July 05, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

July 5 Other Results (sans preview)
I was unable to pre-process the South African racing today so I had no selections. David's were:
LIKEITHOT/lost, WARM WHITE NIGHT/2nd, CONSENSUAL/won & BOLD ELLINORE/non-runner. Pretty good.

Today David followed up a recent good record on UK races, with another good day! True, there were 2 losers, but the other two both won and were well chosen.
Base Stake = 11 pts but I calculated no stats adjusted stakes on these today as I made notes on my pre-processing on only the 1st of these selections.
ALLIED POWERS F/c 11/4. Small field. This selection did not meet one of my criteria for inclusion in that 7 tipped up rivals, including it, were competing. (My limit is 5 against a selection.) My few race stats were not good. It was a Next Best selection but opposed by 3 other Next Best picks in the Racing Post. It was supported by Newmarket though not his Nap of the day - LOST -Nil
MAD RUSH F/c 4/1 Big field. 6 tipped rivals, 3 of them Naps. Newmarket opposed though not as his Nap. Stats on few races not good - WON +Nil
*CHEVETON F/c 3/1 4 rivals but none a Nap. Big majority in its favour but at a level (7) with a weakish UK Win stat in my records: 51W80L. Moreover, in a category I avoid for win bets. Were I betting freely I would have had this one in my list for a peripheral Place Only bet, all the same. D's record was a good 98G47L. This was the selection of these that I could most readily have followed - but I did not look closely enough into the race, partly due to fatigue, beforehand. (These impressions are all made here after the event.) - WON +Nil (which I regret as I feel this is one I should have backed.)
CAMPANOLOGIST -LOST (4th) -Nil
Hope you had a good day on these 2 winners and any others in your list!

Sunday, July 06, 2008  
Blogger The Totopoly Kid said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

Sunday, July 06, 2008  

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